Twins Must Get Creative In Pursuit Of Pitching Help

 

"Play the kids" is one of those things that has the smell of truth on the surface, but lacks any actual merit on closer examination. Play kids that can help you win, and find replacements for those that are just kids.

Agree 100%.  However, unless you play the kids, you will not figure out whether they can help you win or not... 

If the right long term fixes are not available, by all means sign short term fixes in the meantime.  The Twins can then look for long term fixes next year.  The Twins should be done with "Giving up because the talent isn't there yet."  

 

Every inspirational speaker will tell you that the stars never align perfectly for anything.  At some point you gotta just go for it if you ever want to succeed.  Otherwise you sit around like Ryan did waiting for the perfect year to appear.  That's ludicrous.  The Cubs are the only "perfect team" I have seen since the 2001 Mariners -- who as you may remember fell in spite of being nearly perfect.  Yes, that's right, an imperfect team knocked out one of the better teams you probably ever saw.  There is certainly nothing guaranteed for the Cubs this year, either.

Except we haven't been giving up because the talent isn't there.  We've been plugging our rotation with FA mercenaries for years and where has it gotten us exactly?  

Inspirational speakers are full of empty platitudes that sound good on the surface but rarely make for good advice in reality.  I'd argue that's exactly what the "don't give up on 2017" crowd are giving us.  And I don't buy it. 

And, again, this offseason is a miserable suck fest for talent.  There is no "go for it" even if you wanted to.  These guys that we think you can buy on the cheap are going to get inflated deals because the talent available is that putrid.  

I'm not waiting around for a guarantee.  I'm waiting for reasonable, good percentage chance times to be aggressive.  Being aggressive for the sake of it is stupidity.  Just as being passive for the sake of it.  I hope Falvey doesn't heed any advice that says press the pedal down for 2017. I hope he presses the pedal down when the high percentage opening presents itself.  Not full speed into the back of the first semi he sees, because "dammit! try to win!" is somehow a good way of operating.

"Let some growth happen in 2017 and perhaps 2018. Then see (where) you need to add pieces."

My problems with this:

1. I've been hearing this exact same thing for at least three years now. It's time to win. This organization can't afford any more losing, they're already close to an afterthought in the TC market.

2. Neither you or I can predict with much certainty what will happen next week in baseball. Let alone 2019. Waiting around until the magical perfect time to occur is folly.

3. Even if you could predict what the Twins will look like in 2919, you can't predict the needed magic pieces will be available.

4. If, indeed, the current crop of players simply needs more time, nothing will have been lost by adding better surrounding players now. Nothing prevents the Twins from trying now, AND adding players in 2019. "Play the kids" is one of those things that has the smell of truth on the surface, but lacks any actual merit on closer examination. Play kids that can help you win, and find replacements for those that are just kids.

This entire post is filled with sentiments you'd never want from your financial advisor.  Imagine you're investing in the stock market, last year you got really lucky with a flukey investment that paid off way more than you thought.  In the Simpsons Homer invested in Pumpkins, got a huge windfall in October he was too stupid to recognize as dumb luck, and then figured he'd cash in around January.  Reminds me a lot of your post.

You're deliberately ignoring that last year was dumb luck.  That this year is the product of exactly what you have been advocating.  We bought ourselves a FA rotation.  We invested in FA filler rather than giving innings and at-bats into potential for the future.

You want your financial advisor to tell you to double down on the fluke rather than looking for long term payoffs.  You want to push your chips in (you only have so many at-bats and innings) on the off chance of a fluke rather than on something sustainable.  

Adding starting pitchers from this lousy class of FAs will be done at a ridiculous price relative to the talent and will deliberately take innings and opportunity away from younger pitchers that might help you in the future.  Keeping one of them (Santana) also removes a valuable trade chip to do the same.  Retaining Dozier does the same.  You can't know who is going to help you in the long term without investing in them at the big league level.  Clogging the roster with minor upgrades on the offchance you have a flukey year again is terrible advice.

It's the kind of advice I'd fire my financial advisor for.  It's low-percentage gain, high risk, and largely unsustainable.  

I hope to god the Twins agree and finish this rebuild the right way rather than flushing opportunity down the hole on some fairy tale of competing.  The fans will come back when you win.  Not when you manage to lose a little less terribly, but still badly.

In fairness, what were the other options besides the FA mercenaries this season? I was all on board for Jose Berrios receiving the Kris Bryant treatment and getting him up ASAP. Unfortunately he was not ready for the MLB, and was the team's closest prospect to being ready. 

I think we're all arguing for the same thing... To take a chance on a lottery ticket such as Brett Anderson to potentially flip for something else in July. Maybe a guy like him does get a 3 year deal, and if so, good luck to whichever team made that decision. 

Personally, I think this team needs to hedge their bets with better alternatives than Pat Dean and Andrew Albers in case if Mejia/Gonsalves/Berrios implodes in 2017. 

Brett Anderson doesn't replace Pat Dean.  You're talking about signing your 6-8th starters.  Brett Anderson gives you reason to not pitch Gonsalves or Berrios, not Pat Dean.

Roll with Gibson, Berrios, Mejia, Santiago, and trade acquisitions for Dozier and Santana.  Maybe try to get one upside guy you see as a good trade chip come July.  (I doubt you get more than one with this market.  Any upside guys are going to get seriously paid)

What the team should invest in that can help both now and in the future is a defensive catcher and shortstop.  Set the young arms up to succeed by putting a real defense behind them.  

But your depth behind your starting 5 is always going to be subject to guys like Pat Dean.  But you actually put it at more risk of being needed when you have 30+ year old pitchers filling your rotation.  Or the brittle likes of Brett Anderson.  You want to avoid Pat Dean?  Trade Dozier and Santana for some near-ready pitching depth.  It won't be by signing multiple Brett Andersons.

Brett Anderson doesn't replace Pat Dean.  You're talking about signing your 6-8th starters.  Brett Anderson gives you reason to not pitch Gonsalves or Berrios, not Pat Dean.

 

Roll with Gibson, Berrios, Mejia, Santiago, and trade acquisitions for Dozier and Santana.  Maybe try to get one upside guy you see as a good trade chip come July.  (I doubt you get more than one with this market.  Any upside guys are going to get seriously paid)

 

What the team should invest in that can help both now and in the future is a defensive catcher and shortstop.  Set the young arms up to succeed by putting a real defense behind them.  

 

But your depth behind your starting 5 is always going to be subject to guys like Pat Dean.  But you actually put it at more risk of being needed when you have 30+ year old pitchers filling your rotation.  Or the brittle likes of Brett Anderson.  You want to avoid Pat Dean?  Trade Dozier and Santana for some near-ready pitching depth.  It won't be by signing multiple Brett Andersons.

Berrios, Mejia and Santiago were not on the roster last year....or the year before. Who should have pitched, if not the FAs?

I'm not arguing to fix the team in FA, I'm arguing they literally had one SP penciled in to start the year that they drafted....one. It's not like there were a ton of internal options the last three years...

Also, 1 year (or even 2 year) lottery tickets sometimes return value.....you can't ignore that path to rebuilding completely, imo.

Berrios, Mejia and Santiago were not on the roster last year....or the year before. Who should have pitched, if not the FAs?

 

I'm not arguing to fix the team in FA, I'm arguing they literally had one SP penciled in to start the year that they drafted....one. It's not like there were a ton of internal options the last three years...

 

Also, 1 year (or even 2 year) lottery tickets sometimes return value.....you can't ignore that path to rebuilding completely, imo.

I'm not advocating you ignore lottery tickets.  I'm advocating that you don't retain Ervin thinking that he and a few lottery tickets suddenly transforms you. 

The lottery tickets are to be cashed in when July rolls around or don't do it.  If you want to sign one or two to try and get lucky Jake Arrieta style - I say go for it.  But I'm not sure this offseason is going to be a particularly good year for that strategy either.

As for your larger point, I don't disagree that in the past we had opportunity to use those guys due to a lack of pitching talent.  But we have guys coming now, filling our rotation with aging starters doesn't help us long term.  In fact, it may very well hurt it.  

But if you're going to argue "go out and make this team better in FA", it's worth pointing out that we tried doing exactly that and it failed miserably.  Because, by and large, it's a poor long-term strategy.  It's more of a short term fix that you pay for a long term.

Ryan has been signing free agents late.  In other words, he's waiting until after all the good free agents are gone and signing whoever is left over.  Though these signings qualify as stamps on Ryan's "I Signed A Free Agent" card, it does not qualify as trying to fix the team via free agency.  

This is demonstrably false.  You should look up when we signed some of our recent FA starting pitchers.

I'm not advocating you ignore lottery tickets.  I'm advocating that you don't retain Ervin thinking that he and a few lottery tickets suddenly transforms you. 

 

The lottery tickets are to be cashed in when July rolls around or don't do it.  If you want to sign one or two to try and get lucky Jake Arrieta style - I say go for it.  But I'm not sure this offseason is going to be a particularly good year for that strategy either.

 

As for your larger point, I don't disagree that in the past we had opportunity to use those guys due to a lack of pitching talent.  But we have guys coming now, filling our rotation with aging starters doesn't help us long term.  In fact, it may very well hurt it.  

 

But if you're going to argue "go out and make this team better in FA", it's worth pointing out that we tried doing exactly that and it failed miserably.  Because, by and large, it's a poor long-term strategy.  It's more of a short term fix that you pay for a long term.

I figured we agreed, just making sure.

Investing in the defense by finding a defensive catcher and SS, absolutely agree. Rolling with Mejia, and the trade acquisitions from Dozier/Santana, I'm not on board with. I'd rather have those guys in AAA beating the door down deserving of a call-up instead of planning on them making the rotation sink or swim. 

Just feel like we've been burned too much over the last couple of seasons by assuming the awesome RP and SP prospects are just a couple months away... We're still waiting for Burdi/Melotakis/Reed/Jones when supposedly they were ready by June 2015. 

The alternative is to fill your rotation with aged pitchers that implode like Hughes.  Or don't transition well like Nolasco.  And then you are forced to turn to Pat Dean and Andrew Albers.

And, really, how often does that "beating the door down in AAA" thing really work?  At some point, they have to face major league hitting or you won't know what you have.  The longer you make them wait, the less of their prime you have available to you.

I seem to remember reading a lot of comments towards the end of the 2015 season, and early in that offseason, that Ryan's rebuild was done and it was now time for the parades to start in 2016 and beyond.  Now you say we need to commit to a rebuild?  I'm so confused ;-)

I wasn't planning parades but I fully admit thinking and typing. I don't care if 2015 was a fluke. The team did what they did... now you show them that you have their back. I don't believe that Terry Ryan supported the surprising success. 

With Ryan out and Falvey in. I'm gonna sit here wishing and hoping that Falvey is the aggressive sort.

We've done non-aggressive for years under Ryan and it didn't work.

I want Falvey to come in and let it be known that no pitcher with an ERA over 5 gets his name on the big grease board behind his desk and then I'd like to see him aggressively find replacements from every single source imaginable. 

I want Falvey to come in and let it be known that no pitcher with an ERA over 5 gets his name on the big grease board behind his desk and then I'd like to see him aggressively find replacements from every single source imaginable. 

In some offseasons this may be possible.  This one?

Pitching is going to be at an extreme premium.  You simply won't be able to achieve that kind of turnover.

In some offseasons this may be possible.  This one?

 

Pitching is going to be at an extreme premium.  You simply won't be able to achieve that kind of turnover.

Yeah a total washing out would be near impossible. 

I just hope that I don't hear Falvey say something like this:

I'm excited about 2017... We got Gibson and some other arms that should have bounce back years. 

Gibson gets a uniform... fine... that doesn't mean he can't throw out of the bullpen while the Twins try new acquisition A B or C. 

Trade Dozier... Sign Bullpen arms and convert them ala Pomeranz, Duffy, Montgomery or Phelps... Go get that guy from Japan... Give May a shot... Bring 8 other starters into camp along with Gibson and ask them to compete for the job.  Look anywhere and let me read "Twins" once a day in MLB Traderumors on any and all possibilities. 

I'd like Falvey to get aggressive in search of pitching and it doesn't matter to me who gets tossed over board after the pitching performances of 2016 and I don't want him to wait and I don't want him to try and time it. I want to hear Falvey say that pitching is priority A... B... C and D and then go out and do some general managing that suggests that pitching is priority A... B... C and D.

Terry Ryan used to say it every year... Pitching is certainly our top priority and then he did next to nothing about it. I want Falvey to say it loudly and then do it loudly. 

I'm tired of watching pitchers throw every 5 days with ERA in the 5's. Start tossing them aside instead of tossing them on the mound and that means they must bring in a bunch of flexible options. 

Personally, I like the idea of Berrios, May, Santiago, Mejia, Gibson, and hopefully a couple trade acquisitions as a rotation.  Is it world beating?  No, but you're giving at least three guys there the innings they need and you have movable guys to get out of the way should Gonsalves or the acquisitions prove ready.  

The key, in my eyes, that we can do to help next year and the future is to address two key defensive positions (SS and C) and get those solidified.  That should be our top priority.

Personally, I like the idea of Berrios, May, Santiago, Mejia, Gibson, and hopefully a couple trade acquisitions as a rotation.  Is it world beating?  No, but you're giving at least three guys there the innings they need and you have movable guys to get out of the way should Gonsalves or the acquisitions prove ready.  

 

The key, in my eyes, that we can do to help next year and the future is to address two key defensive positions (SS and C) and get those solidified.  That should be our top priority.

I get and I can't argue with your plan... I totally get it... But Right Now... That rotation looks like this to me:

8.02

5.27

5.58

7.71

5.07

That rotation makes me cry.  As of now, I have zero faith in any of them, even May (who I had faith in until Ryan decided to ruin him).

I should clarify.  I don't like them as in "I think they'll be good", more in the sense of "I like the idea of giving them a chance to sink or swim as a part of the long-term plan".

Provided we get them some defensive help.  And stop playing infielders in the outfield.

 What have we seen in the last year that leads you to believe the current young core is good enough to warrant punting 2 more seasons in order to let them develop?  Conversely, if our kids are so good that they warrant that level of patience, how are they not talented enough to compete now?  

See, I think the much more relevant question is, if the young core is good enough to compete next year, how did we manage a historic number of losses?  How can a team so ready to compete next year look so ridiculously unready this year?

Like it or not, the time for these core guys to develop has to happen regardless.  If they do develop, we should be building the most sustainable long term effort to win with them possible.  If they don't develop, we're probably screwed regardless.  But I'd argue we're EXTRA screwed if we hang on to valuable assets now in some deluded attempt at contention.

So, again, what is the highest percentage play for the most long term gain?  It ain't riding this 100+ loss team hard hoping you pull a miracle and compete next year.  The odds of flipping our record by 20+ games is incredibly low.  So why gamble on that? You're gambling the value of Dozier and Santana and other moves on that hope?  Why even consider that a reasonable course of action?

Ryan has been signing free agents late.  In other words, he's waiting until after all the good free agents are gone and signing whoever is left over.  Though these signings qualify as stamps on Ryan's "I Signed A Free Agent" card, it does not qualify as trying to fix the team via free agency.  

I've seen this posted a couple of times and need to point out that this HAS NOT been true the last few seasons.  Both this year and last, Ryan got out and did what he needed to do right away. This was true back in the Dome days, but not so much recently. Last season, the entire offseason was finished a week or two after the WS. 

That said, Levi is right about free agents... We've done a ton, and while none have been the ace we had hoped for, Ryan went out and got decent ones.  People weren't complaining about Nolasco and Hughes when they happened, and for good reason, they were the top of the second tier that wouldn't break the bank and had reasonable upside. We just gave up prospect to get rid of Nolasco, and Hughes is still around (for different reasons)... We started this season with a rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana... all of which were FA acquisitions. We actually have some upside in the form of young talent right now... I think you have to play it, especially in an offseason where looking at the available FA makes you think that an extended bout with the stomach flu is more palatable.