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When the current front office took over, the Twins had almost no history of handing out nine-figure contracts, nor anything remotely close. The only time Minnesota had ever surpassed the century mark (in millions) was Joe Mauer's $164 million extension, signed after his MVP season in 2009.
Over the past four years, Derek Falvey has repeatedly reset the standard for this franchise. First he signed free agent Josh Donaldson to a $92 million deal. Then it was Byron Buxton receiving a seven-year, $100 million extension. Later in the same offseason, Carlos Correa received a $103 million contract, which was really more of a one-year pact, but the Twins backed it up emphatically the following winter with a $200 million blockbuster to bring him back. Then, for good measure, they signed newly acquired starter Pablo Lopez to the biggest contract this franchise has ever given a pitcher ($73.5 million).
These big-ticket moves show how much the Twins have evolved in terms of spending habits over the past five years, and their increased payrolls have underscored this shift. Still, we all know there is a limit, and that now becomes more of a planning consideration because the books aren't as clean as they once were.
Here's a look at the six guaranteed contracts Minnesota is currently committed to, and how the player salaries map out in the coming years (note that everything after 2028 for Correa is a vesting option):
In looking at this chart, one thing becomes very clear: the Twins have a whole bunch of money tied up in 2025. With Lopez's salary escalating massively (this would have been his first post-FA season), Correa making the highest salary of his entire contract, and Paddack getting a healthy boost, the Twins will owe almost $95 million to these six players alone. (For the record, the team's total payroll in 2014 was $85 million.)
So what does this tell us? Additional spending money will probably be sparse. The Twins had a record ~$150 million payroll this year, and while that might grow a little by 2025, it probably won't grow much. In fact, considering certain economic trends, it seems more likely that ownership will be looking to dial back a bit.
The good news is that Minnesota's young wave of talent will bring a lot of cost efficiency to the roster, which is a big part of the appeal. But here too, salaries will be escalating as players enter and advance through arbitration.
Bottom line: the front office is probably going be pretty limited this offseason in terms of what they can commit to the 2025 payroll. This makes it a little difficult to envision any sort of high-scale contract for a free agent – even a relatively reasonable deal to bring back Sonny Gray (i.e. 3/60).
The flip side is that all of these big payroll hits are delayed by one year. Those six guaranteed contracts will collectively pay out $25 million less in 2024 than in '25.
This means that unless the Twins are looking to scale back spending substantially next year (and that is possible) there is a clear opportunity to invest in a short-term solution at a high price. Needless to say, Gray accepting the qualifying offer – which would equate to roughly a one-year, $20 million contract – would be ideal. That's very unlikely.
But there are other ways to take advantage of this situation. For example, the Twins might be more open to taking on the full salaries of a trade target such as Paul Goldschmidt or Pete Alonso, who we highlighted as potential pivots from Alex Kirilloff at first base. There are also a number of high-profile and high-upside starting pitchers in free agency who could be seeking one-year deals to bolster their value – if the money is right. Frankie Montas stands out as one intriguing possibility.
Recognizing the realities of the Twins' books and their nuanced salary commitments going forward can help properly set expectations for what they realistically can and won't do this offseason.
If we're being honest, they've already probably made all their long-term bets, but that doesn't mean they can't find ways to go big this winter.
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