Twins Game Recap (8/9): Twins Set Home Run Record, Lose to Cleveland

Hats off to Cleveland

It took the best record in baseball since June to catch us. This isn't a statement against the Twins... It's a credit statement to Cleveland. 

The Indians and Twins are going to be fighting and clawing at each other the rest of the way. 

Both teams have earned the right to fight and claw at each other.  

I'd say it's both.
I don't think anyone can argue that the Twins have played their best baseball since early June.
It wouldn't have mattered if Cleveland hadn't also been red hot, but both are contributing factors.

Sure but the Twins didn't fall off the face of the earth to allow the Indians to catch us... The Indians had to leave earth to do it. 

I didn't expect the Twins to hold their April-May pace and they didn't. 

I don't expect the Indians to hold their June-July pace. It will be a dog fight from here on out. 

You are right, when two teams are tied at the top of the standings it is always a combination of both clubs that tells the story. 

However, if a team has the best record in baseball for a 2 month stretch. You'd expect them to be leading the division. The Indians are tied. Hats off to both clubs and the Twins are a major reason the Indians are only tied. . 

Bottom Line... The Twins didn't completely fall apart... The Indians had to play incredible baseball to get here. 

Fortunes have turned for MN where we were healthy team the first half of the season and now were injured team and Cleveland is getting healthier as the season wheres on. Its going to be difficult to win if we don't get some people back in next week or so. Buxton missing changes MN defense so much and worsens the pitching without him catching baseball. Cruz missing means were going to see drop off in hitting because they can pitch around players now and don't have to worry about Cruz bat following. Also i think were seeing players playing a hurt so its effecting there level of play. Rosario seems to be different but you can see it eye test, Kepler i got to believe is playing with some injuries and still performing above average, and i wonder about Polonco whats going on he sure has been in slump not hitting for power he was at the begining of the season. Also what's going on with astudillo he's been DL for ever they could use him now.

Things are not always what they seem:

I use June 4 as a swing date because it seems like the swing date: (First Indians Series Matchup BTW)

From March 28 to June 3

The Twins were 40-18 (During that 58 game stretch)

The Indians were 29-30 (During that 59 game stretch

From June 4 to Present

The Twins are 30-28 (58 Game stretch)

The Indians are 41-16 (57 Game stretch) 

I would say that Indians strong suit has been pitching this year and they suffered their primary DL losses from Pitching and primarily during a period when they were the hottest.

The Current Indians Rotation is:

Beiber

Clevinger

Plesac

Plutko

Civale

They got Clevinger back from a first half DL stint but lost Kluber, Carrasco and Anderson for the 2nd half. 

Their pitching got better as the injuries increased. 

Indians ERA by Month

April 3.48

May 4.44

June 4.11

July 2.77

The Indians have had very few injuries from the Position players. 

Lindor for the first 18 games (11-7)

Kipnis for the first 15 games (8-7) 

They have been healthy offensive in the 2nd half. 

Indians OPS by Month

April .667

May .725

June .797

July .847

The Indians have simply been getting better at the plate as the year has progressed. 

However, the Indians offense hasn't reached the Twins level. 

Twins team OPS By Month

April .835

May .874

June .798

July .860

I would say that the primary strength of the Twins has been offense and this is where they have suffered the majority of their injuries while the pitching has shown to be an injury free stability throughout the year. 

1st Half D.L. 

Sano 42 Games (27-15)

Astudillo 14 Games (10-4)

Cruz 15 games (12-3)

Garver 17 Games (14-3)

88 Games lost to injury

2nd Half D.L. 

Buxton 24 Games (9-15)

Astudillo 13 Games (7-6)

Rosario 12 Games (6-6) 

Marwin 9 Games (4-5)

Adrianza 9 Games (5-4)

Cron 15 Games (9-6) 

Cruz 1 Game (0-1)

83 Games lost to injury

And finally... how has the injury free Twins pitching staff performed by month. 

Twins ERA by Month

April 4.78

May 3.45

June 3.95

July 4.42

There is a whole lotta other nuance to consider but it looks to me like, the Indians got stronger with their injuries and the Twins stayed steady through their injuries. 

This is a case of the Indians just simply getting better and the Twins declining primarily on the mound. 

We need the pitching to stop giving up runs and the Indians to start giving up runs.  I'll let the Twins offense beat the Indians after that. 

Give Francona credit.  He skippered a MASH unit into first place. I had said the Twins shoulda fired Gardy a year sooner and we could have signed Tito. He, more than any other reason, is why Cleveland is so tough to beat. 

 

Hats off to him.  

I wrote about this at the time. Tito was only coming back to the dugout- because Cleveland management assured him that they were fully committed to winning and would make the moves necessary to sustain that commitment- and they kept their word to Francona- just look at the gutsy deals they made at the deadline.

The Indians have TWO MORE premiere SPs on the verge of returning to their rotation... I fear this one's over and a golden chance was missed by the Twins

I wrote about this at the time. Tito was only coming back to the dugout- because Cleveland management assured him that they were fully committed to winning and would make the moves necessary to sustain that commitment- and they kept their word to Francona- just look at the gutsy deals they made at the deadline.

 

The Indians have TWO MORE premiere SPs on the verge of returning to their rotation... I fear this one's over and a golden chance was missed by the Twins

2.77 ERA in July without them. 

You have to consider the possibility that they will produce a worse team ERA after they return. 

I cannot blame Buxton or any other starter.  People get hurt and teams move on - check out the Yankees.  But pitching is something that is not only easy to blame, but by all measurements - old and new - the pitching has been terrible.  The starters have essentially pitched batting practice and waited for the relievers to take over.  The construction of the team on the mound is really poor.

2.77 ERA in July without them. 

 

You have to consider the possibility that they will produce a worse team ERA after they return. 

We can only hope.

But if they come back healthy, and more importantly, not arm-weary, the Twins will likely face their top 4 SPs in most, or all, of their remaining 6 games with the Tribe.

Plus, what a shot in the arm for Cleveland to have both Kluber and Carrasco as they face the toughest schedule of any of the contenders over the final 6 weeks of the season. Plus, the addition of Puig into the lineup seems to have been transformative to the middle of the Tribe lineup (OPS of 1.034 since joining the Indians).

We can only hope.

 

But if they come back healthy, and more importantly, not arm-weary, the Twins will likely face their top 4 SPs in most, or all, of their remaining 6 games with the Tribe.

 

Plus, what a shot in the arm for Cleveland to have both Kluber and Carrasco as they face the toughest schedule of any of the contenders over the final 6 weeks of the season. Plus, the addition of Puig into the lineup seems to have been transformative to the middle of the Tribe lineup (OPS of 1.034 since joining the Indians).

Every once in awhile, I like to think about the 2014 A's. 

July 5th they were 54-33 and holding a 3.5 game lead over the Angels. That's when they traded Addison Russell, Straily and McKinney to the Cubs for Samardzija. Later, of course they acquired Jon Lester.

And Sam FULD!!! 

Samardzija and Lester joined Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez and Drew Pomeranz who were also doing a real nice job in the starting rotation. 

And Tommy MILONE!!! 

On August 1st, 2014 after the trade deadline. 

The A's were 66-42

They went 22-32 the rest of the way. 

The game isn't played on paper and clearly they should have hung on to Milone! 

Thank you Brian, that was an excellent summary of the season race between the Indians and the Twins. The one stat that jumped out at me was the team going 9-15 (now 10-15) with Buxton out.

The easy answer is: Buxton is so important defensively that he personally improves our pitching so much that we lose when he isn't in the lineup. 

The more complicated answer and most likely, the correct answer, is a combination of many different factors. Including, the timing of his injury, to a time when the team is actually struggling. 

If you choose to believe that Buxton is so important that he is responsible for that 9-15 record during his D.L. time. You also have to choose to believe that the team is much better with Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver on the IL because the team went 15-3 during that stretch. 

Which measurements?

Twins rankings:

Team ERA: 5th in AL, 9th in MLB
Starters ERA: 4th AL, 8th in MLB
Reliever ERA: 8th in AL, 15th in MLB.

You might be able to teach me where I can get stats that reflect a period of time - post all star break is what I want.  Odorizzi just turned things around and that is great, however the third time through the lineup is disaster and he was again pulled in the middle of an inning, but Gibson and Perez have shown me nothing.  The trouble with these league rankings is that they include the tanking teams so Detroit, KC, Miami, and other miserable teams that we can beat up on take up the bottom half of the list.  If we are 5th in the AL it means 4 teams are above us and they will be the ones we see in the playoffs.

I am most concerned with where we will be in the playoffs and right now it is Berrios, Pineda (still not going deep) and Odorizzi (two times through the lineup) and yes the BP has to step in for them.  Perez and Gibson are becoming BP games.

Okay I found the sortable stats - http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=min#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2019&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1565532458140&timeframe=d7&split=&last_x_days=7 In the last week (7 days) we have 5 players with 9 or more ERA.  5 with a WHIP over 2.

In the last 30 days Berrios, Odorizzi and Gibson have 11,14,13 walks.   Perez has 6.67 era, 1.67 WHip and they are batting .327 against him. And Perez has given up 11 HR in that time.  Odorizzi 5, Gibson 4, Berrios 3, Pineda 2 during that time. 

Berrios has pitched 30.1 innings in 5 starts - ave 6 innings.  He was 6+ before getting blown out in the last game. 

Pineda 24 innings - 4 starts - 6 inning ave

Gibson 32.2 innings 6 starts 5 innings ave

Odorizzi 31.2 innings 6 starts 5.1 innings

Perez 27 innings 5 starts 5.1 innings

BA against - Perez 327

Odorizzi 272

Pineda 250

Gibson 244

Berrios 241

The AL overall batting average is 253. 

So our BP has to work 4 innings most of these games.