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    Trevor May Presents A Planning Paradox For Twins


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins need to improve their pitching this offseason. That is their top priority, and arguably their only priority.

    While it's easy enough to say, 'Go sign and trade for a bunch of new arms,' there are roster realities that will make adding multiple guaranteed contracts on the staff a somewhat complicated proposition.

    Trevor May is one pitcher who will prove difficult to plan around.

    Image courtesy of John Rieger, USA Today

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    When I was in Ft. Myers in March for spring training, May was one of the best performers on the mound I had a chance to watch. I wasn't alone in my sentiment. There was significant buzz around the big right-hander, who had worked hard in the lead-up to camp after getting the go-ahead to prepare as a starter.

    He was in great shape. His pitches were buzzing. He was amped up and ready to go.

    That May's stuff was among the best in the organization was no secret, and he had it all working in the Grapefruit League. He was electric on the mound in what turned out to be his final appearance of 2017, facing an all-star laden Team USA squad in early March. His sterling performance against premium hitters represented a big step toward locking up a spot in the rotation.

    And then, just a couple days later, it was all over. Shockingly, May had suffered a torn ACL in the middle of that outing, despite reporting no issues postgame. He underwent Tommy John surgery on March 22nd, and then spent his summer rehabbing.

    TJ recovery can sometimes take more than a year, but the timetable is growing shorter as methods improve. These days, pitchers frequently return to the mound after 10 or 11 months.

    There's reason to believe May will be ready to roll around the start of spring training if not shortly thereafter. As he noted at the time, the 28-year-old has never had a remotely serious arm injury in the past. GM Thad Levine pointed out that the UCL tear was "an acute injury" and that the cumulative impact was minimal. In other words, May's elbow was otherwise quite healthy, improving his odds for a quicker recovery.

    May has been throwing for a while now and reported on Twitter that he was starting to touch the mid-80s already in early October, less than seven months removed from the surgery.

    If by the end of camp next year he's looking like he did this spring before going down, May could be a high-impact addition, either in the rotation or bullpen. But in either capacity, how do you account for him if you're in charge of constructing the team this winter?

    The rotation already figures to have four members more or less locked in: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia. If you sign or trade for a starter, suddenly May is crowded out of the picture, though he could obviously push someone like Gibson or Mejia for a job, or stand by as the ready reinforcement.

    Sending May back to the bullpen is a less appealing option, in my mind. He showed upside as a full-time reliever in 2016, striking out 60 in 43 innings, but was altogether inconsistent and deserves a real shot at starting anyway. Besides, the pen has its share of question marks as is – Ryan Pressly, Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz, JT Chargois, etc. Adding May would further cloud a situation already lacking much clarity.

    On the bright side, the Twins do have the luxury of taking their time, in a sense. There's nothing wrong with getting to Ft. Myers next February, allowing May to rev it up on the mound, and assessing from there. He has options left, so they'll even be able to start him in Rochester if they deem it necessary.

    But the front office's moves to improve the team in the coming months will need to factor in what they already have on hand, and May – more than most – is a difficult one to project with any kind of certainty.

    If he makes a full recovery and is ready to roll by Opening Day – and currently there's little reason to think this won't be the case – he should be part of the plan. Maybe a big part.

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    Completely agree with your thoughts. Before they moved him out of the rotation in 2015, he had a 3.25 FIP. He had a .341 BABIP and a 69.5% LOB. Even assuming he couldn't have made any sort of adjustment to improve himself (pitch usage, sequencing, etc.), he still likely would have improved those numbers enough to drive his ERA into the low 4's if not lower thanks to improved defense and pitch framing.

    See, you're depending on peripherals turning into results. That's my problem with depending on May as a starter. He had decent FIP but his xFIP wasn't as nice because he wasn't giving up HR despite lots of hard contact which could have driven the high BABIP. I'm fine with letting him compete. I'm saying I don't plan around him in a year we should contend.

    It seems to me that May would slot in nicely as the long man for the first few months of the season to get a read on where his breaking stuff is in 2018.

     

    Besides, need to keep his innings down anyway. If he's showing progress in July, consider moving him to the rotation.

     

    I'm saying I don't plan around him in a year we should contend.

     

    When you say contend ... Do you mean we should be a contender to get to the World Series or should we win the division or do you mean we should contend for a wild card spot.

     

    It makes quite a bit of difference in how we should approach the season.  There were a lot of fans here who thought we should trade away young talent  a couple years for Tulo, Shields, LuCroy, etc. because we were ready to contend.

     

    We are still not close to the level of Houston, Cleveland, Boston, and NY. 

    For this team to contend beyond a 2nd wildcard they would basically need 80% or more of the following to occur .....

     

    One of the top FA SPs

    Santana can't decline at all.

    Berrios has to step it up considerable

    We need the best version of Gibson all year

    Mejia needs to step up.

    Need to add 2 very good BP arms

    Hildy and Busenitz can't sophomore slump

    Sano needs to stay healthy and improve his approach

    Buxton needs to be far more consistent offensively

    Polanco needs to be much closer to the great 6 weeks he had than the rest of the season.

    Kepler needs take a step forward.

    An aging Mauer needs to maintain his level of play

    Dozier needs to remain in a Twins uniform.

    Need a great year in terms of avoiding injuries

     

    That's a lot of contingencies to say they should contend.  I seriously doubt the national media is going to say this team should contend.  We need to make room for May (Long relief is a good start) and eventually give Gonsalves, Romero, and a number of BP arms a chance to establish themselves so that this team can become a true contender.  Let's get that done this year instead of being a perpetual pretender.  It does not make sense to position a world Championship as the only thing that matters and then take an approach with very little chance of getting there.

     

    Edited by Major Leauge Ready

    Santana and Berrios are the only locks for next year. I do understand the age factor but I also think there is a coaching aspect to Santana that is being overlooked.

     

    May should not in any way factor into the signing of a starter this offseason, nor should Mejia or Gibby. We absolutely need someone of the caliber of Santana/Berrios to make a top 3. Let the rest of the contenders play out and go from there. 

     

    With a top 3 of Santana, Berrios and FA or trade then see where we are at come deadline time and pick up a guy like the Astros did this year if needed.

    I think this is the hope. I'm hoping they pick up a GOOD FA this offseason to trifecta with Berrios and Santana. Part of the reasoning is that Santana is 35 this year. How many more seasons does he have before serious decline? two, three tops. They need to stat thinking long term. There will be room for May once he's fully recovered. I also hope that Thorpe gets a fall callup in 2018, but that might be far fetched.

     

    When you say contend ... Do you mean we should be a contender to get to the World Series or should we win the division or do you mean we should contend for a wild card spot.

     

    It makes quite a bit of difference in how we should approach the season.  There were a lot of fans here who thought we should trade away young talent  a couple years for Tulo, Shields, LuCroy, etc. because we were ready to contend.

     

    We are still not close to the level of Houston, Cleveland, Boston, and NY. 

    For this team to contend beyond a 2nd wildcard they would basically need 80% or more of the following to occur .....

     

    One of the top FA SPs

    Santana can't decline at all.

    Berrios has to step it up considerable

    We need the best version of Gibson all year

    Mejia needs to step up.

    Need to add 2 very good BP arms

    Hildy and Busenitz can't sophomore slump

    Sano needs to stay healthy and improve his approach

    Buxton needs to be far more consistent offensively

    Polanco needs to be much closer to the great 6 weeks he had than the rest of the season.

    Kepler needs take a step forward.

    An aging Mauer needs to maintain his level of play

    Dozier needs to remain in a Twins uniform.

    Need a great year in terms of avoiding injuries

     

    That's a lot of contingencies to say they should contend.  I seriously doubt the national media is going to say this team should contend.  We need to make room for May (Long relief is a good start) and eventually give Gonsalves, Romero, and a number of BP arms a chance to establish themselves so that this team can become a true contender.  Let's get that done this year instead of being a perpetual pretender.  It does not make sense to position a world Championship as the only thing that matters and then take an approach with very little chance of getting there.

    I get what you're saying.  I'm not even sure we disagree on anything except team expectations.  We're in agreement that May shouldn't be inked in to the rotation.  The plan should be to get him back in at some point if he's ready and we feel he can make a difference.  

    Regarding the World Series, I'm not sure we are title contenders either.  But we can win the division.  That's a reasonable goal considering that this group will probably NEVER be good enough to be World Series favorites on par with last year's Indians, Astros, and Dodgers.  You have to get incrementally better.  The Astros weren't true contenders the last couple years, but they came close enough to see what more they had to do.  The Yankees this year got that experience.

    A lot does have to go right for us to be World Series contenders this year.  But if you break it down over the next few years, and take some steps each year, it's not so intimidating.  We have to start putting the pieces together now including, most likely, a division title and/or playoff run in order to set us up for a WS run.  We only have so many years of this core remaining.  I'll say the same thing I said last year.  If this core in its prime is not able to contend, then what's the point of building around this core?  Trade Sano for a haul and point to 2021.  They showed they're good enough, imo.  Push now.  If it doesn't work, and the core flops, they should still have enough trade value to start again.

     

    I feel I can predict with near 100% certainty that if May is healthy and pitching like he did last spring, a spot will magically appear.  Until that happens, there is absolutely no reason to worry about it and more importantly, no reason to not go after another stud arm for the rotation (plus a few more for the bullpen).




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