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Good teams are hard to sustain in baseball. The Padres, for instance, got to the NLCS in 2022 and added Xander Bogaerts, got Fernando Tatis Jr. back from suspension, and missed the playoffs entirely in 2023. You just never know what a new season will bring.
The Twins were one of the best teams in the American League in the second half of 2023, and actually did a little something in the playoffs. They have an ace, a lineup star and a fearsome closer.
Well, so did the Padres. Having the three biggest boxes of a contending team's checklist filled doesn’t guarantee success, especially if some items further down the list are neglected. With little payroll flexibility (given the Twins' uncertain TV rights situation), the front office has indicated that they will try to beef up the roster via trading position players for pitching. They would sit at roughly $120 million in payroll if the season started today, leaving them with a maximum of $20 million in space for upgrades--and a minimum of zilch.
There is a reason that payroll levels correlate strongly to year-over-year winning: free agents only cost money, not prospect capital. The Dodgers adding Shohei Ohtani is pure added value for a team with an already-strong farm system. They'll give up a couple of non-premium draft picks and the right to spend some money in the international free-agent market, but those are negligible losses compared to the gain of Ohtani. Teams like the Guardians and Twins (at least this year) need to "win" trades in order to improve without spending money on free agents.
The Twins could, like last year with Gio Urshela, trade an expensive player for a low-minors prospect. That appears to be the goal with Christian Vazquez and Kyle Farmer. But if one or both of those players are traded, and a $15-million-per-year pitcher is signed on a one-year deal, that pitcher has to equal the 2-3 WAR lost by subtracting those veterans, which is no easy feat at that price point. For instance, former Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty has accumulated 1.4 bWAR total over the last four years, and just signed for $14 million with the Tigers.
A reclamation project like Frankie Montas or Hyun-Jin Ryu might be the only other worthwhile options within the Twins' budget, and even they (projected to get $12-18 million or so on a one-year deal) could stretch the payroll to its limit.
While I would be inclined to make a bid for one of those former stars, historically, one would expect the Twins to trade some of their hitters for pitching; it's what they do. But trading hitters for pitchers is nothing like the inverse. Trading starting pitching means you are down a starter. You either replace him, or live with the consequences. Trading from the position player pool means assuming greater risk. The Twins don’t have superstars up and down the lineup; many of their guys are platoon or mix-and-match options. In order for the lineup to click, the group has to work as a unit and truly buy in to whatever hitting philosophy the team chooses to use.
It’s like trading for James Harden in basketball. He might be a Hall of Famer given his ability to score, but if he doesn’t gel with Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid, Paul George, et al, your team got worse, in addition to losing the young players and draft picks it took to acquire him.
Further, let’s be clear: In order to take another step forward next year, the lineup needs to get better, not just hold their level. And if you’re talking about non-tangible value, trading one or both of Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco certainly seems like a risky bet, given their tenure and respect in the clubhouse.
On the other hand, perhaps trading one or both of them allows for greater lineup flexibility while one of Brooks Lee and Austin Martin bursts onto the scene and takes the lineup to another level themselves. Maybe José Miranda or Trevor Larnach takes advantage of an opportunity that wouldn’t have been there, had the vets stayed in Minnesota.
Still, if they are going to trade position players, they have to get this right, even if it is impossible to know which players it is best to buy or sell high on from an analytical or scouting perspective. Tyler Mahle, for instance, was an excellent target, given his track record and untapped potential pitching in Great American Ballpark. But that trade was a disaster, and so was the Jorge López one.
Imagine the trade capital the Twins would have to work with this offseason, if Cade Povich could be a rotation option in 2024, or if Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were in position to compete with Lee and Martin for playing time behind Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Alex Kirilloff. They would almost have to make a trade just to give some guys an opportunity.
A team is always two injuries away from having to lean heavily on depth. We saw with Cleveland last year what can happen when a team goes from the 99th percentile in the injury luck department to the 50th.
If Lee and Kepler are flipped to the Mariners for one of their young starters, for instance, think about how tenuous the situation could be if Polanco, Lewis or Julien miss time. Martin or Nick Gordon are playing everyday at second base, Miranda is at third, and you’re praying a Yunior Severino/Kirilloff platoon is working out at first base.
In this scenario, you’re also relying on an outfield of Matt Wallner, Larnach and Byron Buxton/Willi Castro. Do we know yet whether Wallner can hit quality pitching? Was 2023 a career year for Castro? Will Larnach improve against offspeed pitches? Will Buxton (fill in the blank)? I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but the outfield cupboard is pretty bare beyond those guys, unless Emmanuel Rodriguez really forces the issue and solves all of his contact issues in Double A.
If Michael Helman and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. are getting meaningful at-bats in a pennant chase, you may really regret trading Kepler.
We were spoiled as fans last year, because for every injury sustained, there was a high-ceiling prospect ready to take over (Lewis, Julien, Wallner). That likely will not be the case in 2024 if the team makes a trade for a playoff-caliber starter. Things can flip quickly in baseball.
Consider the 2022 White Sox, coming off an easy division win and with every position on the diamond (except second base) occupied by stars. They didn’t even know Dylan Cease would break out that year. Yet, over 2,000 plate appearances ended up going to Josh Harrison, Gavin Sheets, Leury García, Adam Engel, Seby Zavala, Elvis Andrus, Romy González, Danny Mendick and Lenyn Sosa. That was enough to torpedo their season.
Something needs to be done on the pitching side, too. Pitchers get injured, and once you pass Louie Varland down the starter pecking order, you get the mid-rotation upside of David Festa and then a lot of guys with underwhelming stuff.
There is a misconception that this team just opened its competitive window. They didn’t. It opened in 2019. They've just had a couple unlucky and/or poorly planned years during that period, and are, arguably, approaching the closing of that window as their arbitration guys get more expensive and the talent at the top of the minor-league system dries up. The Twins front office likely takes a different view, seeing Rodríguez, Festa, Marco Raya and Walker Jenkins as the next wave of impact prospects to supplement a contending core.
I'm not so sure. Bad trades like the Mahle and López ones can be shrugged off with the success of 2023, but those chickens will come home to roost at some point. Perhaps Chris Paddack, a healthy Carlos Correa and someone like Severino can paper over some of that, but if the front office thinks they can thread the needle of improving the 2024 club via trade without compromising 2025 and 2026, we all better hope they’re right.
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