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    Which Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Should Be Twins' Top Trade Target?

    Ted Schwerzler

    By Ted Schwerzler

    When the Minnesota Twins ultimately begin to make moves prior to the 2024 MLB trade deadline, pitching will be the focus. If it’s a starter, then one from the Toronto Blue Jays could make sense.

     

    Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

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    Chris Paddack just returned from a trip to the injured list. With the veteran still building back up from his second Tommy John surgery, that wasn’t a surprising situation. His absence allowed top pitching prospect David Festa to take a couple of turns at the big-league level. It didn’t go well for Festa, though, and between the rough showing for the rookie and the track record of the vet, that spot in the rotation has to be viewed as a shaky one.

    Simeon Woods Richardson has been nothing short of a godsend for the Twins this season. His stability at the back of the rotation has single-handedly shored up depth concerns. He is positioning himself well for Rookie of the Year consideration, and has mitigated what has been a tough year for Louie Varland. Still, the Twins would love to upgrade the rotation, so they're not dependent on Woods Richardson and Paddack pitching this well or better the rest of the way.

    If they're to do that, the most obvious trade suitor might be the Toronto Blue Jays. The Twins aren’t bringing José Berríos back, and Alek Manoah underwent elbow surgery, but there are still three Jays starters whom the Twins might do well to bring in:

    Yusei Kikuchi
    Making $10 million in the final year of a $36 million deal, Kikuchi has been better than his 4.12 ERA would suggest. His strikeout rates are some of the highest he has posted over the course of his career, and he has never walked people at a lower clip. Kikuchi owns a 3.62 FIP, and he experienced postseason pitching last year against Minnesota during the wild card round.

    His cost would likely be relatively modest, given the numbers, the salary and his impending free agency. Minnesota could eat more of the remaining considerations of the deal in order to lessen the prospect return, if they can find the industrial tools required to force the Pohalds' wallet open. He isn’t going to be a top option in Rocco Baldelli’s rotation, but he could slot in behind Bailey Ober.

    Chris Bassitt
    For a team seemingly unwilling to spend, Bassitt presents a bit more difficult a situation when it comes to his contract. He is under team control through 2025, and is set to make $22 million next year. That isn’t an outrageous amount for a quality starter, and he has received Cy Young votes in three of the past four seasons, but it's not a coincidence that Falvey has never paid a pitcher even $20 million per year.

    Bassitt has been incredibly consistent. Owning a 3.43 ERA through 18 starts this year, he has backed it with a 3.76 FIP. He’s basically a lock to throw nearly 200 innings, average around a strikeout per inning, and keep you in positions to win games. Like Kikuchi, he isn’t a top-of-the-rotation arm, but he’s someone you would feel comfortable working in a playoff series behind Pablo López and Joe Ryan.

    Kevin Gausman
    The biggest name of the trio, and a former Cy Young winner, Gausman is owed $23 million each of the next two seasons. That is a number Toronto would likely be inclined to buy down, in exchange for better prospect capital. The Twins haven’t swung a deal for a starter of this magnitude since acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cincinnati Reds, and they were buying low on him. The acquisition cost here would be quite high.

    Gausman has not been the same pitcher this season as over the previous couple, but his 3.86 FIP is much better than the 4.64 ERA suggests. He is allowing more hits and home runs, but the strikeouts and command are all still part of his game. At just 33 years old, there’s reason to believe the Twins could get him back on track: his stuff profile fits what they do as an organization very nicely.

    It seems like the easiest match for Minnesota and Toronto involves Kikuchi. The greatest possible difference maker, though, is Gausman, and he’s the type of arm they have been seeking since Gray signed with the Cardinals this offseason.

    Which arm would you be most interested in, and what price would you pay to land them?

    A blogger for over a decade, passion for baseball and the Minnesota Twins runs deep. Whether at the ballpark or on the couch, I'm probably tweeting.
    Follow Ted Schwerzler on Twitter: tlschwerz

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    Featured Comments

    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,212

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    I care about results, man. Not hype, and Pablo Lopez was hyped to the moon after his playoff results, just like 'ol buddy Captain Average, HoF'er Jack Morris. Now, Lopez is way better than Morris. There is only 1 season in Lopez's career where his ERA was lower 3.61, and it was a year where Lopez pitched only 102.2 innings. Lopez's ERAs have always trailed his FIPs, just like other 'ol buddy, Ricky Nolasco. When you see a major split between ERA and FIP for several years/career, it's not luck. It's a pattern. 

    Side note, a 1.19 WHIP is mediocre. Lopez's WHIP (#41 of 73 qualified starters) is bracketed by household pitching studs like Matt Waldron 3.61 ERA/3.66 FIP and Brandon Pfaadt 4.19 ERA/3.78 FIP. Two Cy Young favorites for next year for sure.

    Jack Morris pitched 30-40 years ago - not really sure what you’re rambling about with reference to him?

    A few guys often discussed as interesting potential acquisitions here at TD:

    Sonny Gray career WHIP 1.195

    Seth Lugo career WHIP 1.15

    Jack Flaherty career WHIP 1.185

    Jesus Luzardo career WHIP 1.252

    Nathan Eovaldi career WHIP 1.288

     

    Jocko87

    Jocko87 5,696

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    "But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited. But that’ll ultimately be up to the market, and up to opportunities that Derek feels are good for the Twins."

    -Dave St Peter

    I'd say that's at least a little bit of a reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets. Adding another 10% to the payroll by taking on another 13 million sounds like a very unlikely thing to happen. Same with 10 mil. Maybe they do 3-5 million?

    When the owner says they're "right-sizing" their business it's probably safe to bet that they aren't hitting the same numbers they had in the previous seasons. 150 million wasn't the "right size" for their payroll so expecting them to go back to that number would be believing that Joe Pohlad was lying and pissing off his fan base for no reason. I think the safer bet is that they don't have a lot of wiggle room to add significant costs in the next 3 weeks.

    I still think it makes sense that the limited investment has to be related to the trade deadline.  It makes a ton of sense to see how all the question marks turn out in the first half and target it.  I'm not so sure they feel like they desperately need another starter, they probably do want a bullpen that can be shut down for 5 innings though.  Personally, I want a lockdown lefty in the pen.  

    A starter would be nice and likely be very expensive in prospect capital but not untenable.  A top 50ish prospect got Scherzer and 35m last year.  No telling what other organizations have an owner with a change of plans.  Two months of salary isn't the end of the world and would fit with the money we assume they have from the limited TV deal. 

    4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Yeah. Andrew Albers was an ace for his first 2 games in 2013, too. If 2 or 3 game sample sizes were what determined whether or not a pitcher should be considered an ace, MLB would be overflowing with them.

    Stop being ridiculous.

    MABB1959

    MABB1959 1,010

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    Ok, I'll throw it back at you. What does the 2010 Twins have to do with this season? If you say more than nothing, I'll disagree with you.

    Follow up, what does giving up our future here mean to you? I would imagine my view of "giving up the future" would be different than yours, comparing to what they would have to trade to acquire help at the deadline.

    Wasn't thinking back to 2010 but since 2010 their playoff record is 0-7.  This season is 0-6 against NYY.  So far 0-3 against Baltimore

    Future is Royce Lewis, Brooks lee or any prospect batting over .300.  Could be tempting to give up Miranda, Jeffers or Castro who seem to just be finding their stride.  

    Again, if there was a chance of going past the ALCS it could be worth it.

    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 2,936

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    We'll stop as soon as Woods-Richardson stops pitching well, which I hope is never. The key to a ROY season is putting it together for a whole season. We'll see if all the players you mentioned can sustain their success.

    good luck with that working out.  Bottom line is, as well as Woods-Richardson has pitched he's done so through our jaded lens and he has ZERO shot at ROY.  Deal with it.

    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 2,936

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    21 hours ago, clone52 said:

    Colton Cowser is hitting 0.221.  He had an INSANE April, but has been AWFUL since then.  0.580 OPS in May, 0.679 in June and 0.490 in July.  If he turns it around and finishes the year strong, he'll be a candidate.  If he continues his 2 month trend, he won't get votes.

    Wyatt Langford is having a great year and improving.  Probably the leading candidate.

    Spencer Horwitz is having a great year and if he keeps it up will be in the running.

    Luis Gil is probably ahead of SWR right now, but its close.  He's actually the #2 favorite on one betting site, likely due to him playing for the Yankees.

    I don't think SWR will win, but if he keeps this up all year, he'll be in the conversation.

     

     

     

     

    Litmus test.  Are you prepared to give him the ball in Game 3 of the playoffs?

    Cory Engelhardt

    Cory Engelhardt 6,707

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    26 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

    Wasn't thinking back to 2010 but since 2010 their playoff record is 0-7.  This season is 0-6 against NYY.  So far 0-3 against Baltimore

    Future is Royce Lewis, Brooks lee or any prospect batting over .300.  Could be tempting to give up Miranda, Jeffers or Castro who seem to just be finding their stride.  

    Again, if there was a chance of going past the ALCS it could be worth it.

    They aren’t going to trade mlb pieces. Teams that are selling generally always want prospects. They have prospects, quite a lot of them.

    Glad you are able to see into the future. Do you have powerball numbers with that ability too? :) Especially with the Yankees winning 5 of their last 21 games as of today.
     

     

    MABB1959

    MABB1959 1,010

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    34 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

    Glad you are able to see into the future. Do you have powerball numbers with that ability too? :) Especially with the Yankees winning 5 of their last 21 games as of today.

    You don't need to be rude.  Everyone her is allowed an opinion

    Cory Engelhardt

    Cory Engelhardt 6,707

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    34 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

    You don't need to be rude.  Everyone her is allowed an opinion

    I was only responding to your assertion that the Twins have less than a zero chance of doing anything in the playoffs. I just can't prescribe to that defeatist mentality. As of right now they lead baseball in runs scored since April 22, and they have a LOT of prospects to trade to help their major league club make a push. That's what we should be wanting our team to do every time there is an opportunity to do so, no?

    That doesn't guarantee success, obviously, as the playoffs are a crap shoot. That's the way it will always be. But the favorites rarely win it all year to year BECAUSE it's a crap shoot. So to say they have no chance is just not accurate. 

    Have a great day!

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

    I still think it makes sense that the limited investment has to be related to the trade deadline.  It makes a ton of sense to see how all the question marks turn out in the first half and target it.  I'm not so sure they feel like they desperately need another starter, they probably do want a bullpen that can be shut down for 5 innings though.  Personally, I want a lockdown lefty in the pen.  

    A starter would be nice and likely be very expensive in prospect capital but not untenable.  A top 50ish prospect got Scherzer and 35m last year.  No telling what other organizations have an owner with a change of plans.  Two months of salary isn't the end of the world and would fit with the money we assume they have from the limited TV deal. 

     

    I'd also expect the pen to be the place they're most looking at upgrading. And likely a lefty arm. My point was simply that the other poster suggesting their real payroll number is 150 was ignoring what the top 3 people in the organization said all offseason. If 150 was the real number they definitely should not have saved 20 mil for the deadline. I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a little salary, but the other poster's suggestion that there's no reason to believe they wouldn't add another 13 mil seems to be ignoring what the organization spent all offseason telling us.

    I don't see the Twins trading a top 100 guy this deadline. I think the payroll decrease is a more permanent thing (not that they won't add at all, but they won't be jumping back to 150 next year) and they are going to need their young guys to take a lot of spots now as Pablo gets more expensive and arb salaries start kicking in. I'd absolutely love to see the Pohlads sign off on a really aggressive move to try to make a big time run at things this year, but I don't think they ran the world's worst PR campaign all winter only to make a big splash at the deadline.

    clone52

    clone52 372

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

    Litmus test.  Are you prepared to give him the ball in Game 3 of the playoffs?

    Is that a requirement to win Rookie of the year?  He'd be the Twins #4 option this year.

    I'm not saying he's in the lead, I'm just saying that he's worth talking about.  If he keeps up the same pace (big if), he'd be about 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.  His K/9 is low at 7.4.  His lack of wins would probably be the driving factor keeping him out.

    Luis GIL is having a better year.  He might finish 16-8 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Much higher K/9 as well at 10.4.    He's one of the current favorites to win, but SWR is not that far behind him.

    Pitchers rarely win ROY.  Michael Fullmer did in 2016 going 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 7.5 K/9.  deGrom won in 2014 going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.  

    As of today, I think he'd finish in the Top 10.

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    On 7/9/2024 at 2:09 PM, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

    I haven't the slightest idea but I wonder what their books would look like if they have the revenue from an extended playoff run, i.e., World Series appearance or 6-7 games into the ALCS, but also increase their payroll by 10% from August through the end of the season.

    It absolutely would help to make a deep playoff run, but, according to Gleeman, the Twins attendance is down about 1200 per game so far this season. I can't imagine the business people were projecting 54000 fewer fans to this point in the season when calculating their budget before the season so they're likely already starting from a hole and probably aren't willing to bet on a deep playoff run when it comes to investing significantly more money into the payroll. But, generally speaking, a deep run would most certainly make it far more palatable to add to the payroll at the deadline.

    DJL44

    DJL44 16,608

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    according to Gleeman, the Twins attendance is down about 1200 per game so far this season. I can't imagine the business people were projecting 54000 fewer fans to this point in the season when calculating their budget before the season

    Their lack of TV coverage is killing attendance. Out of sight, out of mind.

    dxpavelka

    dxpavelka 2,936

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    10 hours ago, clone52 said:

    Is that a requirement to win Rookie of the year?  He'd be the Twins #4 option this year.

    I'm not saying he's in the lead, I'm just saying that he's worth talking about.  If he keeps up the same pace (big if), he'd be about 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.  His K/9 is low at 7.4.  His lack of wins would probably be the driving factor keeping him out.

    Luis GIL is having a better year.  He might finish 16-8 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Much higher K/9 as well at 10.4.    He's one of the current favorites to win, but SWR is not that far behind him.

    Pitchers rarely win ROY.  Michael Fullmer did in 2016 going 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 7.5 K/9.  deGrom won in 2014 going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.  

    As of today, I think he'd finish in the Top 10.

    not gonna happen

     

    USAFChief

    USAFChief 78,972

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    Their lack of TV coverage is killing attendance. Out of sight, out of mind.

    Agreed. It's definitely a problem. 

    Which is kind of ironic, considering back in the day, teams resisted putting home games on TV on the theory having those games freely available on TV would lower attendance. 

    mnfireman

    mnfireman 4,070

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    For those of you still wanting Berrios:

    After his start on 4/20:  5 GS, 4-0  W/L, 0.85 ERA, 27/9 K/BB, .205 BAA, 2 HR

    Since: 15 GS, 4-7 W/L, 5.15 ERA, 60/24 K/BB, .259 BAA, 19 HR

    He has regressed (and then some) to his career norms since the hot start - Toronto can keep him because he is what he is...

    GCTF

    GCTF 2,950

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    28 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

    For those of you still wanting Berrios:

    After his start on 4/20:  5 GS, 4-0  W/L, 0.85 ERA, 27/9 K/BB, .205 BAA, 2 HR

    Since: 15 GS, 4-7 W/L, 5.15 ERA, 60/24 K/BB, .259 BAA, 19 HR

    He has regressed (and then some) to his career norms since the hot start - Toronto can keep him because he is what he is...

    I watched his start last night. It was rough. 0 Ks and 0 swings and misses. Pulled after the fourth. They probably would've yanked him sooner but their starter only went four the previous game.



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