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    The Twins Have Failed Josh Donaldson


    Matt Braun

    A little over two years ago, reports broke that the Twins agreed with Josh Donaldson on a four-year $92 million deal. It’s a surreal experience to look back on that day. Not only was the news groundbreaking—the Twins broke the dam and finally signed a big-name free agent to an expensive contract, but the memory exists in a time and place just weeks before COVID would alter our lives forever. There was hope (at least, as much hope that could exist amongst Minnesota sports fans), as the winds of change seemed to blow in our favor for once. Now? I’m left wondering what ultimately is Donaldson’s legacy on the Twins.

    Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

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    Certainly, Josh Donaldson cannot be the one to blame for the putrid 2021 season; that existed outside of his sphere of influence. Unless he secretly siphoned off all the talent from the pitching staff while bullying Max Kepler by placing pictures of his BABIP in his locker before every game, the disastrous year should not be attributed to him. In fact, I would argue that he did exactly what the team asked of him. His somewhat disappointing 124 wRC+ masks batted ball data that suggests he should have hit at an MVP level in 2021. If those balls allude outfielders like they were supposed to, then we’re talking about Donaldson as a tragic hero, an excellent performer stuck on a bad team. 

    Click the link and you'll see enough red to give Senator Joseph McCarthy a heart attack. His xwOBA is right in line with his peak years on the Toronto Blue Jays—some better luck would have altered the season and turned the Twins from bad to... still pretty bad, but with a better third baseman. Ultimately, his batted-ball numbers change little about the team as a whole, but it does improve Donaldson's footing; perhaps the vitriol of fans washes over him if his wRC+ is upped by 30-40 points.

    But those balls didn’t safely land in the grass. They were caught. And the team stunk. And stats disagree on his defense. And the team stunk.

    So, now we’re halfway through a contract that was supposed to represent a changing tide for the Twins organization, and all there is to show for it is a playoff series sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros, a series that Donaldson did not participate in. The conversation has moved on from discussing Donaldson as the veteran that will lead the Twins to higher greatness. Now we ask whether or not his contract should be dumped onto some rich team like the Mets so that we can warm the seat for Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, or another prospect who represents the soft rebuild the team is inevitably embracing. Funny how much two years can change things. 

    But none of this is his fault.

    It’s somewhat odd, really, that the team failed solidly in 2021, yet the big-name free agent signing was not the reason for such disaster. Donaldson did as we expected, or, to play off the words of the great Dennis Green; he was who we thought he was. He hit well, made headlines for comments made outside of the diamond, made headlines for comments made inside of the diamond, was told to meet Lucas Giolito outside, met Lucas Giolito outside, and, ultimately, flashed a level of showmanship possibly unmatched in franchise history. If you’re the type who is unimpressed by xwOBA, BABIP, or any other vaguely medicinal-sounding advanced stat, you at least can’t argue that Donaldson has brought entertainment to the team. 

    I don’t know if Josh Donaldson will be on the Twins for the 2022 season. The front office has played their cards close to their hand as usual; after the lockout ends, I could wake up to the headline that the team signed Trevor Story and be just as surprised had I woke up to see that they dealt Jorge Polanco. The Twins under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine relish refusing to act until they absolutely must—a bowl is most useful when it is empty, after all. 

    If Donaldson remains, he will be left as the eldest leader of a currently youthful squad—just three players currently on the 40-man roster were born during the Reagan administration. The team would have to rebound dramatically to make good on the promises made following the 2019 season. If the Twins decide to trade him, then I can say for sure that it was the team that failed Donaldson, not the other way around. I hope the biggest free-agent signing in franchise history gets the chance to lead a legendary Twins squad properly, but the real world is not as poetic as hopes and dreams; wrongs cannot be righted by the whims of an author and the randomness of life can often spoil even the prettiest of visions.

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    11 minutes ago, cHawk said:

    With that logic you’re trying to build a fantasy team. You’re ignoring a lot of things. The Pohlads have said they are willing to increase payroll, yet it never happens. Do you really think Falvey and Levine want to spend less money? I find that really hard to believe. If you expected them to go get Cole or Strasburg, you set yourself up to be disappointed. It was never going to happen.

    Why was Target Field built? So this organization could compete for the best talent available. Yet they continue to be bottom feeders. Yes the Pohlads say the checkbook is open and the FO does not use it. Who's fault is that? The fans? I highly doubt the Pohlads are NOT making more than enough money to afford a top player or two in the Free Agent market when there are $100 tickets, $10 beers, $7 hotdogs, over-priced souveniers, not to mention the revenue from the Bally Sports network. Don't tell me that organizations like Detroit or Texas, which both signed top talent this year in Free Agency, have so much more revenue that they can afford it and the Twins can't. It is the fact that they choose not to. You have been led to believe that because the Twins have always been cheap that they can't change. Again, it is because they choose not to. Not because they can't.

    I have always admired Donaldson as a player so I was cautiously optimistic when they signed him.  However, investing $22M in a free agent for 2.2 WAR is not exactly a problem but he is not a solution either.  2.2 WAR for $22M is underperforming and you are certainly hoping for more in the first 2 years when you sign a 34 y/o to a 4 year deal with a 5th year option that costs $16M or an $8M buyout.  I seriously doubt he will be worth $16M in 2024 so you really need to consider that cost as well.

    Many here predicted this deal would bite us in the ass.  I fear they will be right if we hold on to him.  So, I am hoping he has a great first half and is dealt at the deadline even if it costs some retained salary.

    14 minutes ago, rv78 said:

    Why was Target Field built? So this organization could compete for the best talent available. Yet they continue to be bottom feeders. Yes the Pohlads say the checkbook is open and the FO does not use it. Who's fault is that? The fans? I highly doubt the Pohlads are NOT making more than enough money to afford a top player or two in the Free Agent market when there are $100 tickets, $10 beers, $7 hotdogs, over-priced souveniers, not to mention the revenue from the Bally Sports network. Don't tell me that organizations like Detroit or Texas, which both signed top talent this year in Free Agency, have so much more revenue that they can afford it and the Twins can't. It is the fact that they choose not to. You have been led to believe that because the Twins have always been cheap that they can't change. Again, it is because they choose not to. Not because they can't.

    Saying that Falvey and Levine openly choose to spend less money when more money is available is wild speculation. This has been a problem from Ryan to Smith to Levine. It can’t be every single ****ing GM. And yes, I believe they won’t break the bank in free agency as long as the Pohlads own the team.

    So blame the Pohlads. Not Falvey and Levine.

    I don't see this as the Twins "failing" Josh Donaldson. The first season they were exactly the kind of team that Donaldson thought he was joining: a very good one, a playoff contender, one that had a shot at a title. 2021 was a horrific season, not just because the Twins were bad, but because they were bad in a year where everyone, literally everyone, expected them to be good. They were picked by everyone to be contending for the AL Central title again, and many reputable people and projection systems had them winning it. Instead, injuries, poor play, bad starts, etc ruined the season.

    Season 1 of this deal, Donaldson got hurt at the wrong time. Season 2, every coin flip went the wrong way, they got off to horrific start and the season went bad. The deal the Twins made, they were going for it in the first two years of that contract, the expectation was "get all the value you can in the first two years, the second two a risk-filled". They made the playoffs in season 1 and Donaldson wasn't available to play because of injury. Season 2 it went bad. So who "failed" who?

    We're heading into season three and we don't know how this team is going to go. Right now, it doesn't look like it has the pitching to contend, but a) we don't know how this roster will end up, and b) we don't know how the young pitchers are going to actually do. The lineup is definitely good enough to contend, and frankly the bullpen is probably good enough as well. 

    "Failure"? Meh. Hasn't worked out like anyone planned or hoped, but it's hard to say it was a failure for anyone. Twins lined it up and got it right in the first year of Donaldson's contract (and then Donaldson was hurt when they needed his bat the most...did he "fail"?) and didn't in year two (but none of their bets were ridiculous. I'm sorry, anyone who says they knew Colome was going to be a trash fire to start the season is lying). Year three is still to be written.

    Strange premise...that the Twins owe him something besides a paycheck.

    If you argued that the team was somehow holding him back or making his performance or health worse, I'd understand the concept. But instead you say he's more or less living up to expectations. I don't get it.

     

     

    For those thinking they should have spent money on pitching instead of Donaldson (which I tend to agree with but not sure who those pitchers are?), which pitcher haven't they been able to afford because of him and what pitchers should they have signed instead of him?

    The Twins aren't trading Donaldson any time soon, if they do it shows they are rebuilding again after saying that wasn't the case, they aren't eating the amount that would be needed to get anything decent back. (Imagine for a minute they trade him and have to eat 10 million for a couple of really young prospects, if they Twins have 10 million to spend on prospects I would prefer that would be on international ones), and finally because it makes the FO looks stupid for signing him in the first place.

    The front office pretty much got screwed because of all the injuries to to the pitching prospects, then decided it would be better to let vets pitch at the end of the season instead of putting the prospects on the 40 man or using service time without knowing how the labor dispute would go. (that may turn out to be a great decision because they can be working with a few of them in the mean time), but the problem is and was why are all of their prospects getting hurt?

    The problem is and continues to be the Bullpen and mow the starting rotation.

    Donaldson has played fine and brought a passion and fire for the game. Problem is we can't afford him know with all the dire pitching needs.

    Resign Cruz at 12-15 M and bring up Miranda and your veteran leadership and 3rd base positions are solved for far less money.

    Maybe we can tell Sano he has been traded to the Red Sox and he morphs into David Ortiz?

    What we got for Berrios, may or may not come to fruition. Meanwhile a #2 starter, let alone a #1 starter will cost us a lot more on the open market than Berrios would have.

    Do we really need 3 quasi SS/OF prospects instead of a proven pitcher like Berrios? NO!!!

    Have the Twins forgotten that there us a draft every year and new prospects to be had?

    This team could sign 60M worth of pitching for next year and still suck.

    This is a deep hole they find themselves in.

     




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