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Up until now, this year has been much of the same. Already we've seen nine different players draw starts in the outfield (for comparison, the season total in 2010 was six) and the results have been ugly. Here's the total production the Twins have gotten from all three positions, compared to the league averages:
Position | Twins OPS | AL OPS
LF | .628 | .700
CF | .596 | .721
RF | .726 | .755
Right field has been the only position with any kind of stability, and its occupant is likely to be gone after this season.
But the arrival of Byron Buxton over the weekend signaled a hopeful shift away from the revolving door routine in Minnesota's outfield. Barring unforeseen circumstances or injury, Buxton will hold down center field regularly for the rest of this season and beyond. And when it comes to addressing the corner spots on either side, the Twins are in the enviable position of sorting through numerous talented young candidates in their search for a solidified unit.
Let's run through some of the players who will be in the mix, with a few perhaps surprising names rounding out the list. (This is more of a short-term view, so I won't dig into any of the prospects that are still multiple years away.)
Oswaldo Arcia
This has been such a tough year for Arcia that it's easy to forget what a tremendous offensive player he has been for his age level. A recent post by Matthew Pouliout on the HardballTalk blog pointed out that Arcia is one of only seven players under the age of 24 with 500-plus MLB at-bats and a career OPS+ above 100.
Defense is clearly Arcia's downfall; he profiles better as a DH and that might be where he ends up. But he could be hidden to some extent in right field, especially with strong defenders in center and left. In spite of his difficulties this month, I remain confident Arcia will be quality middle-of-the-lineup bat for many years, though I'm not as confident it will be here.
Eddie Rosario
His stock dropped to an all-time low when he missed 50 games last year due to a drug suspension and failed to hit after returning, but Rosario's reclamation tour that began in the Arizona Fall League has been in full swing ever since. The 23-year-old stuck around longer than anyone expected in spring training, drawing consistent praise from Paul Molitor, and was the club's first choice when outfield reinforcements were needed from the minors one month in.
Since his arrival in the big leagues, Rosario has done plenty to impress. He is one of only five players on the team with an OPS+ above 100, he's been a dynamic threat on the base paths, and his defense has stood out perhaps more than anything. Having Buxton in center and Rosario in a corner is reminiscent of the Hunter/Jones combo that turned the Metrodome outfield into a no-fly zone.
Aaron Hicks
It's getting harder and harder to believe that Hicks is going to hit enough to be a major league regular, especially in a corner spot. His .594 OPS with the Twins this year is nearly identical to his .604 overall mark in MLB. But as a switch-hitter that offers speed and premium defense at all three outfield spots, he has the makings of a strong bench option with the upside to eventually turn into a quality starter. He's still only 25 and his production in the minors (particularly in Triple-A this year) leaves no doubt that the offensive ability is there.
Max Kepler
Signed as a teenager out of Germany back in 2009, Kepler failed to dominate in his initial exposure to pro baseball here in the States. But with his prototypical build, tremendous athleticism and advanced grasp of the strike zone, he was always seen as a guy with the potential to blossom, given a little time. That is exactly what's now happening.
Kepler is amidst a breakout season at Double-A, where he's hitting .331/.393/.530. He's flashing power (17 doubles and three homers), speed (five triples and nine steals) and discipline (23-to-19 K/BB). He's hitting lefties (827 OPS), which has been a problem in the past. Kepler is looking like the real deal, and an interesting additional piece in this outfield puzzle.
Read Parker Hageman's midseason prospect update on Kepler here.
Miguel Sano
The notion of Sano moving to an outfield spot, spawned from questions surrounding his ability to stick at third and the entrenched incumbents at Minnesota's infield corners, has been brought up to Twins officials in the past and has never really been downplayed. Terry Ryan and others have been emphatic that the bulking 6'4", 260 lbs. slugger can move well enough to play out there. But up to this point, Sano still has not played a single pro inning at any outfield position, so this remains a theoretical idea. As the names mentioned above suggest, Sano may face no less of a logjam in the outfield corners than the infield ones.
Joe Mauer
The thinking here is twofold: First, Mauer has a good arm and still moves decently well, assets that go to waste when he's stationed at first base; second, his reduced offensive output plays a little better somewhere like left field -- where the average AL OPS is .706 – than at first base, where it's .792 (highest of any position). The Twins have a number of promising hitters in the system whose best fit appears to be first base, and right now Mauer is blocking them all while providing the worst production in the league for the position.
TAKEAWAYS
Looking over these candidates, I have three principal takeaways with regard to the Twins' outfield outlook.
1) Arcia seems likely to be traded. The Twins have always valued defense and that's a major shortcoming for Arcia. There have also been indications that the coaching staff isn't always pleased with the slugger's demeanor. If his bat gets going again and draws interest from another club, I could easily see Ryan pulling the trigger.
2) Hicks is running out of time if he hasn't already. Patience is always encouraged with young players, especially a former first-round pick who has produced in the minors, but Hicks is currently failing for a third time in the majors and now the rest of the organization's bright prospective outfield talent has either caught up or passed him.
3) Mauer to left field should be strongly considered. Mainly because at least two people on this list (Kepler and Sano) strike me as better fits at first base than in the outfield, and that's not even mentioning Kennys Vargas, who has no possible landing spot other than first base or DH.
Oh, and one other thing: Bringing back Hunter for another year shouldn't even be on the table, regardless of how he produces from here on out. He simply doesn't fit in the scope of what this team is trying to accomplish.
What are your thoughts? What are your takeaways from this list, and which alignment would you like to see patrolling Minnesota's outfield for the next several years?
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