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The Minnesota Twins entered the 2026 season expecting Joe Ryan to anchor their starting rotation. He was coming off his first All-Star season, had established himself as one of the American League’s top starters, and remained under team control through 2027.
Things didn't go according to plan. Ryan battled injuries and struggled during the second half of the season. He finished the year after missing time with a left glute strain. For the season, he posted a 3.79 ERA (112 ERA+) with 159 strikeouts and 31 walks over 144 2/3 innings.
Now the Twins have a decision to make. Minnesota is open to trading one of its starting pitchers this offseason, with Ryan, Bailey Ober, Pablo López and Dean Kremer all entering the final year of their current team-control windows. General manager Jeremy Zoll specifically discussed the possibility of turning pitching depth into help elsewhere on the roster.
That makes Ryan one of the seven biggest decisions facing the Twins this winter.
The Pros of Trading Joe Ryan
The biggest argument for trading Ryan is that the Twins need help in other areas. Minnesota has a considerable amount of starting pitching depth. Ryan, Ober, López, Kremer, Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews and Mick Abel all could factor into the rotation next season. That doesn't mean all eight will be healthy or effective, but it does give Zoll something the organization desperately needs: options.
If another team values Ryan more highly than Minnesota does, the Twins could turn one starting pitcher into multiple pieces for a roster with other holes. Ryan also has significant trade appeal because of his track record. He’s been an All-Star (or borderline All-Star) for multiple seasons while averaging a 111 ERA+, 3.81 FIP, and 2.6 rWAR since 2022.
Even after his difficult second half, opposing teams would have plenty of reasons to believe in a rebound. The Twins could also be selling before Ryan reaches free agency after the 2027 season. If Minnesota believes Ryan's value is unlikely to increase significantly over the next year, this could be the opportunity to maximize his trade value.
The Cons of Trading Joe Ryan
The obvious problem is that good starting pitching is difficult to find. Trading Ryan would remove a pitcher who has already demonstrated that he can be a quality major-league starter. Even if his 2026 season wasn't what anyone wanted, there is still a strong argument that the Twins should bet on a bounce-back campaign rather than sell low.
There is also risk in assuming that the current depth will remain intact. López and Abel are returning from elbow surgery. Prielipp has battled injuries throughout his professional career. Matthews has yet to establish himself as a consistent major-league starter. Ober continues to struggle with velocity.
Suddenly, that impressive depth chart can look much thinner. There is another consideration: Ryan's value may not be particularly high right now. I recently noted that injuries and his second-half struggles complicated what had once been a straightforward trade decision.
Trading him simply because the Twins have too many pitchers would make little sense if the return doesn't address a significant need. The organization also needs to determine whether it is trying to compete in 2027. If the answer is yes, removing an established starter creates another problem that Zoll must solve.
What Would the Timeline Look Like?
The Twins shouldn't feel pressure to trade Ryan simply for the sake of making a move. The best opportunity could come early in the offseason, particularly if another club loses a starter in free agency or decides it needs rotation help. Minnesota can listen to offers before the market fully develops and determine whether Ryan's value is strong enough to justify a trade.
The timing of this offseason could be particularly important because the collective bargaining agreement is set to expire December 1, creating the possibility of a lockout. Zoll has already indicated that Minnesota doesn't intend to sit around waiting for the offseason to develop.
That makes the weeks before the potential lockout especially important. If the Twins receive a significant offer, they could move Ryan before December 1. If the offers aren't compelling, there is little reason to force the issue.
Minnesota could also revisit the situation after the lockout or closer to spring training. A team could lose a starter to injury, miss out on a free agent, or decide it needs another rotation arm. Those developments could change Ryan's market. The key is patience.
Trading Joe Ryan would be one of the biggest moves Jeremy Zoll could make during his first full offseason running the Twins' baseball operations department. There are legitimate reasons to consider it. Minnesota has starting-pitching depth, Ryan has only one potential season of control remaining after 2026, and the Twins need to improve other areas of the roster.
But there are equally legitimate reasons to keep him. Ryan is only 29 years old, has already shown the ability to pitch at an All-Star level, and could be poised for a bounce-back season. Trading him after a difficult second half could also mean selling at a less-than-ideal moment.
The question isn't simply whether the Twins should trade Ryan. The bigger question is what another team would be willing to give up for him. If the return can address one of Minnesota's biggest weaknesses while maintaining the organization's ability to compete in 2027, Zoll will have a fascinating decision to make. If not, keeping Ryan and betting on a rebound might be the better path for a team that still needs quality starting pitching.
Either way, Ryan's name belongs near the top of the Twins' offseason decision list.
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- nclahammer and Patzky
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