TD Midseason Top Prospects: #7 Nick Gordon

The concept of the "baseball gene" makes the Twins front office seem like evolution deniers.

To be fair, this attitude isn't unique to the Twins -- most forecasters had Gordon ranked pretty high last June and cited similar reasons.

Not that I like that reasoning.  People often like to say certain HS draftees are "raw" and require more patience like Kohl Stewart because they played other sports etc.  Well, the opposite is true for Gordon, who has been playing baseball full-time since he was a child, and whose father was a millionaire pro baseball player living in Florida which gave Nick access to the best instruction, facilities, and opportunities imaginable for baseball development.

And indeed we've seen some of that polish, in his speed, athleticism, and shortstop projection.  Unfortunately, we haven't seen it yet in his bat, which is the one component where I don't think his "baseball gene" alone can carry him far in the pro's.

By comparison, his brother Dee Gordon was basically a .300 hitter from the get-go in the minor leagues,  stole 70 bases in A ball, and never struck out as much as Nick currently is.  Admittedly, Dee was older when he went pro, but not a ton -- roughly a year and a half ahead of Nick, thanks to community college.  But Dee primarily played basketball until he was a high school senior (he wasn't drafted out of high school at all), was drafted 127th overall compared to 5th, and is also 3 inches shorter than Nick for those that like to project based on size.

As the 5th-youngest primary shortstop in the 16-team Midwest League

Actually, according to Fangraphs he is the 4th youngest (Chang was born a few months before Gordon, although Fangraphs age sort does not appear to factor in months):

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=11&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=2,a

This sort of surprised me.  He's young for his league, but not that young.  He does not appear to be distinguishing himself in performance from his age peers:

All four of the other shortstops age 19 or below were international signings, with only one netting a signing bonus above six figures.  By requiring the 5th pick in the draft and a $3.85 million bonus, Gordon is comparatively much riskier.

Here is a list of first round high school SS draftees:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=pos_round&pos=SS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&from_type_hs=1#draft_stats::none

The one that jumps out as a potential comparable is Francisco Lindor, a valuable glove who was predicted to stick at shortstop.  But even he topped Gordon's current A-ball stats, and he did it a year younger than Gordon too.

At this point, I'm more concerned with Nick's plate discipline and his contact ability.

Yes, that's where my concern generally lies too, and while he hasn't been great in those areas, he's far from disastrous.  (I'd prefer if he was closer to his age/position peers in power too, but that's not a huge deal yet.)

Still very early, of course.  None of the HS position player first rounders from last year are doing much of anything yet.  Hopefully Gordon can start to separate himself from the pack this summer.

Dee is also 3 inches shorter than Nick for those that like to project based on size.

I must correct myself: Dee is listed only 1 inch shorter than Nick.  Somehow misread Nick's height as 6'2" when he's actually listed at 6' even.  (Tom Gordon was only 5'9" so I suspect Nick won't get taller.)

Also, I'm not sure we want Gordon to show much power. He's (reportedly) so slick defensively that maybe it's best if he stays in the 6' range and never gets over 180 lbs. Given the way baseball is turning back to smaller guys up the middle, it could mean he's the first Twins SS who will actually stick at the position through his early 30s. The bigger he gets, the more likely it is that he moves away from the position at a younger age.

Yeah, nobody's asking him to try to be the next A-Rod, or start training with Sano.

But at this point, I'm not ready to settle for a banjo bat, banking on projected defense.  If he doesn't start consistently limiting his K's and posting high BABIPs like his brother (or Ben Revere), he should probably add some strength and tweak his swing for at least a little more ISO (.100 range) if he is capable, or he may not stick as a regular regardless of defense.

Has anyone looked at what MLB shortstops are hitting these days?

 

Jose Iglesias has the highest OPS of any qualified AL shortshop and it's .768. Next closest is Bogaerts with .734. 

 

If Gordon can stick at shortstop, which I think he can, and post a .700-.750 OPS, which I think he can, he'll probably be one of the better shortstops in the AL. 

There are 3 NL shortstops with OPS's over .800 this year.  Correa and Lowrie are also over .800 but don't yet qualify.

Also, you make it sound like it's easy to post that kind of OPS.  Iglesias is achieving it with a .358 BABIP and tiny 9.1 K%, Boegarts with a .330 BABIP, .113 ISO, and solid 13.6 K%.  (And the Red Sox hope Bogaerts will improve.)

At this point, one year into his pro career, Gordon hitting numbers like that is still almost entirely projection. (Note that at Gordon's age, Boegarts was posting an .896 OPS across high-A and AA.)

Not to mention, if .700-.750 OPS ends up as his "peak" ability, his offensive performance may veer close to .600 some years too (i.e. Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus).