Sell, Sell, Sell: A Look At Twins Trade Chips

DocBauer · May 27, 2016

Personally I think the trading criteria should be "how can I straighten out our own roster, and our 40 man" not what can I get in return. If you are waiting for return on this years version of the Twins, next years will look much the same.TR is either going to have to acquire some proactive agression from somewhere, or about the best you can hope for is Buxton, a couple middle of the pen moves, and maybe Kepler. That is not going to solve the Twins!

This is exactly 100% correct!

There is little value in the trade assets we have. With some luck, over the next 30 days, a couple of these guys will start performing better just in time for July 1st and will look a bit more attractive to teams in need.

I do believe Plouffe has some value. I believe Dozier has some value. Both could have a lot more with a good June. If a contending team has an injury bug hitch at catcher, Suzuki could have some limited value. He, at least, is experienced and been known to garner respect of players, coaches, etc.

This isn't even about acquiring talent, though it would be nice if you could somehow come up with just a decent piece of two. And it's not about shredding payroll, because you're probably not going to be able to, or not much. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, you're going to have to eat a big chunk of some of these deals, and probably toss in another prospect to complete them. But it's about making room on the 40. It's about making room on the 25 man for Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Berrios, etc, etc.

Trade what you can for what you can. Eat what you have to. Outright release if you have to. But it's time to be focused on putting 2016 behind us, and look to the future. And if the future doesn't start today, it damn well should start around July 1st

Platoon · May 27, 2016

Gibson is my dark horse to be traded and actually bring back something of value. If Gibby can get back on the field and string together a few solid starts he should be the first guy the Twins shop aggressively.
I would be shopping Ervin Santana aggressively as well.

I would also be fielding offers on Park, who could bring back the absolute most in a trade as well, I would have to be blown away by an offer, but I think he could fetch a really nice return.

I don't disagree with this to a point. They would bring in something. But with the dearth of pitching here, and this is sad to say, these two are two of the better. Sheesh. Park I agree with. I have a lot of qualms over him, plus to us he is simply a DH.

Kwak · May 27, 2016

Just what Twins fans need--a minor league team plus Joe Mauer.

Mr. Brooks · May 27, 2016

Don't forget Tommy Milone! Ship him off for whatever you can get back.

Milone recently cleared waivers.

Nobody wanted him for free, why would anyone trade even a bucket of balls for him?

DocBauer · May 28, 2016

The problem with Nunez as a Util INF is that he is quite horrible defensively up the middle (and even at 3rd base) Basically he needs to continue to hit like he has to make it worth having him out there defensively. Polanco is a much better bet to work out long term IMO, so I think Nunez should be shopped very aggressively.

I suppose this opens up a can of worms, but unless I can actually get something pretty solid in return, I'm not looking to trade Nunez. And it's not as simple as him having a career year.

To hear some opinions, not necessarily yours, but in general from non-Nunez fans, you'd think he goes in to the field dressed as Edward Scissorhands. I just don't think that is fair or accurate. I have seen a mix of some really nice plays from Nunez, this year and before, as well as some boots. (Nobody is ever perfect, of course). But for the most part, day after day, I feel he's solid with the glove overall. And I repeat what I've stated before, if a guy was an excellent fielder AND quality hitter, he'd be a starter and not a utility player. I like the way Nunez plays the game; he hustles and seems to care. He's a solid hitter with pop and has quality speed as well.

Plouffe really should be moved at some point. Given that, Sano now plays 3B full time, which is where he should be. Assuming, for now, Dozier is not traded...and I'm very open to this happening...Nunez and Escobar play SS and utility in some combination. Santana should not start, but still offers some talent and potential, and can be a useful utility/super utility type.

This leaves Beresford, who is past deserving a shot, and Polanco, who needs to play daily, seems to have legit ML ability to play somewhere, currently at Rochester in reserve. This would seem to indicate an abundance of guys to play middle infield for the Twins.

But despite having some young talent/depth in the middle infield, most of it is at high A or lower at the moment. If the Twins actually got bold and moved Plouffe AND found a solid deal for Dozier, now what? I believe Nunez's value suddenly increases. And beyond that, unless a quality bullpen arm is involved, or a young catching prospect somehow for a team desperate for help, it would seem the value for a solid and inexpensive Nunez is greater for the Twins to keep vs what he'd bring back.

I really think the fate of Nunez, or Escobar, who is better than he's shown so far this season, depends on whether or not the Twins get really bold in their moves toward the future.

Mr. Brooks · May 28, 2016

I suppose this opens up a can of worms, but unless I can actually get something pretty solid in return, I'm not looking to trade Nunez. And it's not as simple as him having a career year. To hear some opinions, not necessarily yours, but in general from non-Nunez fans, you'd think he goes in to the field dressed as Edward Scissorhands. I just don't think that is fair or accurate. I have seen a mix of some really nice plays from Nunez, this year and before, as well as some boots. (Nobody is ever perfect, of course). But for the most part, day after day, I feel he's solid with the glove overall. And I repeat what I've stated before, if a guy was an excellent fielder AND quality hitter, he'd be a starter and not a utility player. I like the way Nunez plays the game; he hustles and seems to care. He's a solid hitter with pop and has quality speed as well.Plouffe really should be moved at some point. Given that, Sano now plays 3B full time, which is where he should be. Assuming, for now, Dozier is not traded...and I'm very open to this happening...Nunez and Escobar play SS and utility in some combination. Santana should not start, but still offers some talent and potential, and can be a useful utility/super utility type.This leaves Beresford, who is past deserving a shot, and Polanco, who needs to play daily, seems to have legit ML ability to play somewhere, currently at Rochester in reserve. This would seem to indicate an abundance of guys to play middle infield for the Twins.But despite having some young talent/depth in the middle infield, most of it is at high A or lower at the moment. If the Twins actually got bold and moved Plouffe AND found a solid deal for Dozier, now what? I believe Nunez's value suddenly increases. And beyond that, unless a quality bullpen arm is involved, or a young catching prospect somehow for a team desperate for help, it would seem the value for a solid and inexpensive Nunez is greater for the Twins to keep vs what he'd bring back.I really think the fate of Nunez, or Escobar, who is better than he's shown so far this season, depends on whether or not the Twins get really bold in their moves toward the future.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

But, I want to go on record as being in disagreement of pretty much every thing you just said about Nunez.

He's already accumulated a negative 0.6 defensive WAR. He's pretty awful in the field.

Aside from a slightly increased line drive ratio, I can't find anything to suggest his newfound offense is sustainable.

His babip is .358, more than 50 points higher than his career number.

He is striking out more than ever (17.7%, career is 13.5), walking less than ever (3.4%, career is 5.5), and hitting more and more fly balls.

He will turn back into a pumpkin. The Twins should sell high, if they can.

It will not be hindsight when we come to regret not trading him when we could.

DocBauer · May 28, 2016

A question for all of you based on a few basic assumptions.

The general belief for all of us educated fans an amateur GM's is that Nolasco could and should be gone by whatever means necessary in order for the youth movement to take place. But unless the team actually find someone, probably a NL team, to take on the remainder of Nolasco's contract, or even half of it, the Twins could end up eating the entire $12M owed in 2017. Pretty much exactly the same with Perkins. No matter what, we probably hold his entire 2017 salary: closer, setup, cut, we're on the hook.

But traded or not re-signed to make room for Sano at 3B, and Buxton and Kepler in the OF, we get over $7M in relief from Plouffe being gone. Suzuki gone means another $6M. Traded or not re-signed, Jepsen gone frees up another $5+M. Fien saves another $2M.

Even eating or accounting for Nolasco and Perkins, that is $20M, roughly, gone for the 2017 season. Yes, there will be raises, of course. But the bulk of the remaining roster is either signed and accounted for already, or are, and will be, minimum salary players or small raise players not currently making big money.

If Ryan suddenly lost his marbles, or got vindictive/super aggressive on his way potentially out, or ownership also suddenly bought in to the full rebuild and fully committed to letting prospects play, a move of Dozier could mean another $3M or so depending on if we had to pay a portion of his salary.

In 2011, the Twins had their highest ever team payroll at $115.5M. Now, that was paying for a team ownership thought could compete. Finances change in sports, as they often do, between mass market and local TV and radio deals, etc. IN THEORY, with no evidence to the contrary, allowing for nothing more than a 10% increase in max payroll over 6 years, talking about 2017, that would leave a maximum, comfortable payroll, potentially, of $127M.

Now, this based on a potentially winning, competitive team payroll. A team doing their best to dump players who don't fit in to the future, and are committed to youth, is probably not looking for a max payroll at this time. And I think that is more than understandable. But I think these rough numbers are good for perspective.

So we cut $20M. If we keep Dozier, that number is $17M. A few small raises, and that's probably all that is due considering, once again, minimum salary players and relatively low salary players making up the rest of the roster, except for a few high cost guys already locked in, and it should leave the 2017 Twins with around $15 to spend just to equal the 2016 payroll. Assuming, of course, management wouldn't be tired of 5 out of 6 seasons losing 90+ games and wanting to make not only a major statement, but a wholesale statement with a new GM, etc.

But let's be conservative, assume the youth movement, and a want to just keep the payroll the same. If you are a pessemist, you will say the Pohlad's want to cut payroll to save and make money. If you are optomist, and have read recent comments that indicate the Pohlad's are impatient and Ryan may be clinging to his job, you could see changes coming and a willingness to at least be competitive, make necessary moves to offer hope, and at least match payroll, even if you don't want to raise it at this time.

What do you do if in charge? I'd think signing a mediocre SP is out of the question. And I dont see suddenly adding to payroll to sign a MAJOR FA SP for a very young team. Said stud FA pitcher probably would be on the decline when the rest of the roster was ready. So again, what do you do? Horde payroll for a couple of years, when Santana, Hughes and Mauer are off it, or close? Even though Chargois is achingly close to making a move as a potential stud, with Burdi, Melotakis and others seemingly a good year away still, do you FINALLY make a strong move for the bullpen? Assuming Buxton and Kepler in the near future, Rosario suddenly a question mark, other OF seemingly at least a year away, unless Grossman really is a young, switch hitting Mickey Hatcher, (a nod to us old/long term Twins fans), do you look to an OF? Do you try to sign the very best catcher you can, short term, to work with Centeno before Garver/Turner are available?

If Ryan, ownership, the next GM, will ACTUALLY MAKE SOME MOVES and commit to the future before the 2016 season is over, there ARE some things to be excited about. And without going suddenly crazy with payroll, a few moves would allow flexability to add to the roster and, hopefully, prevent another 90 loss season even as the youth movement is in full flux.

So again, what would you do if you were committed to tomorrow but also had $15 to work with?

jsteve96 · May 28, 2016

Let's face it: the only players other teams would be interested in-Berrios, Gorden, Stewart, Gonsalves, and Jay- are in the minors!

+Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Vargas?, Polanco?

Reider · May 28, 2016

A couple of years ago fans were predicting that the Twins would hit their stride somewhere around 2016-2018. Now fans want to blow the team up and trade everyone.

I have read a lot of complaints about minor league players being blocked. Sano is still with the Twins, but many of the minor league players mentioned in this thread have had opportunities at the MLB level and got sent back down because they weren't playing MLB caliber baseball. Buxton was even given the starting CF job out of spring training when it was clear to myself and other fans that he was not ready to be a starter at the MLB level yet.

I also find it interesting when I read about fans wanting the starting pitchers moved to the bull pen. Yes, lets just move all of the starting pitchers to the bull pen, then who is going to start for the Twins? It's obvious that the Twins need to improve both the starting pitchers and the bull pen.

As for team chemistry, I read one comment, where a fan suggested that the dressing room is "toxic." I really don't have any reason to believe that the dressing room is toxic. If anything, I think the Twins are just lacking something. I believe they are missing some team chemistry, character and personality. There are some veterans like Dozier and Plouffe with some personality, but there's also a bunch of guys like Mauer, Suzuki, and Park (who can't even speak English). And then you have Molitor managing these guys. I believe personalities like Torii Hunter are invaluable. Guys like him are a super glue that not only hold the team together, but they bring the team together. My guess is that the team needs more players like that in the dressing room.

Losing in itself can take a toll on Moral, but I don't think there are really any toxic people in the dressing room. It's more about what's missing than what's there. I recently read about Dozier trying to get some advice from Torii Hunter on how to become a better leader. Either you have it or you don't. I can see Dozier being a good character in the dressing room, but the team needs more of those guys.

As for trades, obviously some changes have to be made. I'm open to trading players away, but what I"m not in favor of is a knee jerk fire sale just for the sake of it. I think Terry Ryan needs to take a cerebral approach to improving the team moving forward.

Edited May 28, 2016 by Reider

old nurse · May 28, 2016

When looking at ALL of the names above, and many of them should be moved sooner rather than later, the Twins also have to look at their depth in the farm system, especially at names of guys who will become minor league free agents, who need to be added to the 40-man roster not only this year but also the following year, and deal some of those names as well...since there are only 40 names you can protect in 2017 as well as 2018.

That is the secret. Create the list of guys YOU EXPECT will come to camp and break camp next year. And also a possible list of players coming to camp in 2018.
They start packaging players. You might have to package a fringe prospect or two to rid yourself of some salary. Some teams may be willing to take on a Jepsen thinking a change of scenery may help, or jsut for depth.

Yes, I'm sure that little angel on Ryan's shoulder is telling him to NOT EAT SALARY while the devil is on the other shoulder telling him to just go ahead and release the guys...you won't be around in 2017 except as a roving scout of talent, if you don't get outright fired and jump to another team...many of which will seek your scouting services, I'm sure.

the Twins have to look for returns of prospects that are on the bubble because of the need for work, or guys jsut behind in anyother teams depth chart.

I mean, look at the Twins. Right now we have Escobar and Nunez, bother should be available. We have Polanco, who could play short, move to second eventually, or become a utility guy. We have Beresford who could be a temp 40-man backup this year AND next. We have at least four guys in the shortstop depth, with Nick Gordon possibly fast-tracked and Wander Javier at least four years out from getting a taste of major league life. So we have lots of depth (shades of too many centerfielders notice of the past).

But, yes, you have to look at the very big picture. The Twins have drafted a lot of bodies the past four years who are on the cusp of needing protection. Other teams are watching and salviating at who the Twins will leave open for Rule 5. The Twins trick is to move some of these possibilities for something, with soemthing of lesser value, to clear books AS WELL AS roster space.

You take Nolasco. You get a couple of higher prospects (guys we can't protect), we get a couple of guys we need to protect in 2019 or 2020. We free up salary. We move our own prospects up for a slice of major league life. We suck, but we such with rookies and the future, not just guys filling roster spots that other teams have already found no place in the home for now or ever again.

A major league roster with Mastro, Boshers, Kinzler, would indicate there will be a few spots open. Abad was a one year contract. By the end of the year the future of the Twins career of Plouffe, Santana, Arcia, Tonkin, Jepsen, Pressly, Centeno, and Dean will be clearer. That is 12 players. There are 15 on the minor league roster that 2019 is far far away in terms of development. Right now I would be hardly sure of many players that would for sure be on the 40 man There are no players that can be free agents by 2019 or 2020 that should be locked up to longer contract. There may be a lot of room on the 40 man for even multiple rule V picks.

ashbury · May 28, 2016

Multiple Rule 5 picks is not the vision I had for anything in the 2017-19 era.

Linus · May 28, 2016

I think things are setting up nicely for the Twins. Buxton et al need to be in AAA for another 6 weeks which should coincide nicely with a Plouffe trade. If Polanco does well in Rochester I would move Dozier as well. Kepler and Polanco add some badly needed obp and your outfield defense is fixed.

Willihammer · May 28, 2016

Park is on pace to be a ~2.5 WAR player this year. Assume that is his true talent, factor in decline, and you're looking at about 4.5 to 5 surplus WAR over the life of his contract. Plus a team option. That should be an attractive chip for someone that needs a RH bat / 1B at the deadline I would think.

Hosken Bombo Disco · May 28, 2016

I think things are setting up nicely for the Twins. Buxton et al need to be in AAA for another 6 weeks which should coincide nicely with a Plouffe trade. If Polanco does well in Rochester I would move Dozier as well. Kepler and Polanco add some badly needed obp and your outfield defense is fixed.

What if Polanco does well in Minneapolis?

Linus · May 28, 2016

What if Polanco does well in Minneapolis?

That would be fine but he is in Rochester right now....

Steve J · May 28, 2016

Trading Park... Not a big fan unless we get a real return....like B to B+ prospects. Our sunk costs on him were almost 13 million dollars going into his first season, he's provided decent offense in the middle of the order, and he has a very team friendly contract going forward. Despite creating roster concerns going into the season, he's not exactly blocking anyone now. He is a good player in his prime that we control at a far below market rate, going forward.

And I simply do not trust Ryan on the trade market anymore. He'll just acquire more backend starting pitchers, and call it much needed 'depth' while we watch their 88mph fastballs get pounded by major league hitters.

Plouffe at this point has much lower roster value to the club, if only because I think resigning him would be a mistake.

DJSim22 · May 29, 2016

How about trading Park? Unlike most other players his value could be at a higher point, and it would open up space for Vargas or Walker.

With all due respect, Walker is striking out 50% of the time at AAA. He doesn't need a spot opened up.

DJSim22 · May 29, 2016

I would:

Trade Nunez tomorrow before the hot streak wears off.

Trade the following: Arcia, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe, Gibson. Probably would be able to trade two or three at most.

Keep: Park. Too much money invested, he is playing better than I expected while making a huge life change to the US. If anything, I see him getting better. Seems like a smart kid who has his head on straight.

I would be talking to the Rockies about AAA catcher Tom Murphy. That's my favorite catching name right now. Probably a long shot, but we could make a case with a package.

ashbury · May 29, 2016

Keep: Park. .... Seems like a smart kid

He turns 30 on July 10, Gramps. Most models of baseball players worry about decline at that age, not improvement, although of course the specific case of Asian imports brought in mid-career might not precisely fit the mold for any number of reasons.

DJSim22 · May 30, 2016

He turns 30 on July 10, Gramps. Most models of baseball players worry about decline at that age, not improvement, although of course the specific case of Asian imports brought in mid-career might not precisely fit the mold for any number of reasons.

True, but I think any decreased talent in the next two or three years should be outweighed by being comfortable in everyday life and in the games. I know the human side of baseball is frowned apon in place of metrics, but this is my .02.

ashbury · May 30, 2016

True, but I think any decreased talent in the next two or three years should be outweighed by being comfortable in everyday life and in the games.

I agree, which is why I indicated that an import player might be an outlier. And it's all just averages, which means any individual player might beat the odds. Still, one of the major reversals in baseball thinking in my lifetime is that the average player is not entering his prime when he turns 30, but leaving it. Father time has the final say; that IS part of the human side of baseball. But I'm hopeful in the case of Park and the moderate length and dollar outlay of his particular contract.

Winston Smith · May 30, 2016

David Wright is having health issues again and Duda is out for a couple months so trading Plouffe to the Mets makes real sense.

Terry get it done you need to start fixing this messy roster, imo.

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Sell, Sell, Sell: A Look At Twins Trade Chips

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