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    Don't be Desperate with Royce Lewis


    Hans Birkeland

    When you see the fans' hivemind agreeing about anything, it pays to be extra cautious.

    Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

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    Front offices have jobs to do. Whether the fanbase likes whatever moves they make is secondary to them putting a winning product on the field, barring a rebuild.

    But in recent years it seems like front offices are succumbing to some combination of their own impulses and fanbase pressure and making rash (but popular) moves. Whenever a fanbase is clamoring for a young, exciting player, it seems like they are making their debuts within weeks. Look at uber-prospects Anthony Volpe of the Yankees , Eury Perez of the Marlins, or Jordan Walker of the Cardinals. Of those, only Volpe had any Triple-A experience prior to his call-up, and he didn’t do well there in 99 at-bats. None of them have been great in the big leagues, as of yet.

    These impulsive (or desperate) moves can manifest in other ways, as well. I wrote on this site that when Alex Kirilloff finished his rehab assignment, he would be optioned to Triple A. That happened, but for less than a week. After seeing Trevor Larnach struggle for, let's be honest, one series, the Twins optioned him in favor of Kirilloff, despite him having rarely played back-to-back days in the minors recovering from his wrist injury.

    Didn’t that work out? Well, he is hitting well. Would it have helped if he had gradually worked his way into playing more back-to-back games before being recalled, from a long term, wrist-health perspective? We may never know. And that’s what I question. The easy answer was to call him up ASAP. The hard answer isn’t worth answering because it's unknowable. Restraint is boring, unsexy and impossible to evaluate in hindsight. We don’t pay much attention to a bridge that doesn’t collapse.

    In related news, the Tyler Mahle trade was a disaster. We got nine starts out of the guy while Christian Encarnacion-Strand is lighting Triple-A on fire and Spencer Steer is settling in as a solid regular for the Reds. But was the front office impulsive in making the move? Mahle had just missed time with an injured shoulder and the Twins rotation was a mess at the time, despite being in first place. Was there an element of “f- it, let’s go for it, it's what the fans want anyway”?

    Maybe. Maybe not. I loved the trade at the time, and so did you. But that wasn’t because it was a smart trade. We loved it because Mahle was the best deadline acquisition starting pitcher in Twins history, unless you’re a rabid Rick Reed fan.

    In that context, it's easy to push the danger signs, like Mahle’s shoulder, to the background. It's like being a kid waiting for Christmas in 2001 and hoping for the latest Crash Bandicoot game. But then everyone in your fifth grade class said it's the worst game ever and what follows is a brief time period where you kind’ve hoped you didn’t get the game so that you didn’t go through the pain of seeing it suck. However, when you saw it under the tree the next morning, all that doubt went out the window because now it's yours and two days ago it was all you ever hoped for (I’m of course referring to Crash Bandicoot: The Wrath of Cortex).

    On August first, Mahle was an injury risk. On August second, he was the key to our impending playoff success. Fifteen days later, he was injured.

    Which is why I’m always skeptical when the front office does exactly what the fan hivemind wants it to do. They make plenty of mistakes, but on the whole have more information, more experience, and they have more at stake than you. Their jobs are more important than your vibes, generally.

    We can’t know how much fan pressure impacts decision making, but when Aaron Hicks was hitting leadoff on opening day for the 2013 Twins, I got a little pit in my stomach like, “Oh God, they listened to us.” It happened again with signing Logan Morrison and Addison Reed, along with starting Randy Dobnak in game two of the ALDS in 2019.

    That brings me to Royce Lewis. He is eligible to return to the Twins on June 1st, and fans are already clamoring for his immediate return. The man has played 48 games total over the past four years, is recovering from a second torn ACL, and has twelve games of major league experience. We have no idea what he’ll be at this point. What we do know is that the last time he was both good and healthy was in A-Ball as a nineteen-year-old, five years ago.

    I can feel the seething, impulsive bloodlust that wants the 2017 first overall pick starting at third base in two weeks. It is a festering, bile-spitting demon that lurks in the back of all of our minds like a child that can’t handle watching other kids open presents on their birthday without getting a present of their own. It projects the image of Lewis hitting that game-breaking grand slam against Cleveland for his first big-league home run over and over like a Soviet propaganda film.

    It’s in Derek Falvey’s mind, and it’s in my mind, too. I can picture the lineup he lengthens: The postseason pedigree of Correa, the power/speed combo of Buxton, the reliability of Polanco and the line-to-line authority Kirilloff hits with coalesced around the “aw shucks” ultra-dynamism of a fully formed Lewis.

    But none of that is real if Lewis isn’t ready (and the injury gods don’t smile upon us).

    Whenever I’m not sure whether I’ve shown enough restraint in my life, I just try to picture what legendary cartoon dad and king of measured approaches, Hank Hill, would say. Thanks to OpenAI, we can ask him about calling up Royce Lewis:

    “You see, bringing up a young player too soon can be detrimental to their development. They need the opportunity to face different levels of competition, learn from experienced players, and mature both physically and mentally. It's like letting a steak rest after grilling so that the juices can redistribute and the flavors can fully develop.

    So, my advice would be to evaluate Royce Lewis's performance in the minors, consider his readiness both on and off the field, and make a decision based on what's best for his long-term development. Just like grilling a steak to perfection, you want to ensure that all the elements are in place before you serve it up.”

    That’s the unexciting, non-appeasing, wet blanket logic we need. Lewis will be ready when he’s ready. It could be June 1st or August 1st. As fans, it's our right to be excited and push to see him as soon as humanly possible. As a front office, the Twins need to ignore everything we say and make sure he is ready for production, and not rushed like a certain Playstation 2 game that ruined my winter break those many moons ago.

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    Hur dur, hur dur.  I will wait to form my opinion about this condescending article until the hivemind informs me of whatever decision coalesces. Meanwhile I will continue to seethe impulsively in my mindless bloodlust for seeing Royce Lewis in a major league uniform on or about June 1   And I reserve the right on or about June 3 to call for his DFA and release if he has an o-fer in his first game.  Now if you'll excuse me, I have a festering, bile-spitting pet demon to go feed.  Hur dur, hur dur.

    2 hours ago, roger said:

    Put me in the camp that wants him up here as soon as he is comfortable and ready.  Could that be June 1, maybe.  Also could be a week or more later.

    Looking at how many of you are saying play him in the outfield.  You didn't read the comments his agent made two weeks ago when he began his rehab.  He said Royce should be limited to short and third, then went on to give several wise reasons why playing him in the outfield would be a mistake and could lead to another injury.  Read it in the Strib and don't remember the specifics.  But recall thinking that he made a ton of sense when I read it.  So I will be shocked if we see him anywhere other than short or third.

    I didn’t see the article but it’s pretty obvious that he’s going to be making up missed minor league time in the major leagues. That’s tough for anyone including 1-1 guys. Don’t make it harder by having to be uncomfortable on both sides of the ball. 

    8 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

    That was interesting, thank you internet. 

    It's a site bug that I believe occurs when you are composing a reply and meanwhile one or more other replies come in that cause the site to construct a new page.  You click Submit but it doesn't take you to the new page and you don't see your published post, just the WYSIWYG editor with your text.  So you naturally think it's just a glitch and your comment didn't take, so you click Submit again.

    Over-under is about 3 times, I find.  Some post half a dozen duplicates before catching on (or giving up). 

    17 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    It's a site bug that I believe occurs when you are composing a reply and meanwhile one or more other replies come in that cause the site to construct a new page.  You click Submit but it doesn't take you to the new page and you don't see your published post, just the WYSIWYG editor with your text.  So you naturally think it's just a glitch and your comment didn't take, so you click Submit again.

    Over-under is about 3 times, I find.  Some post half a dozen duplicates before catching on (or giving up). 

    I’m average! Yay!

    54 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    Hur dur, hur dur.  I will wait to form my opinion about this condescending article until the hivemind informs me of whatever decision coalesces. Meanwhile I will continue to seethe impulsively in my mindless bloodlust for seeing Royce Lewis in a major league uniform on or about June 1   And I reserve the right on or about June 3 to call for his DFA and release if he has an o-fer in his first game.  Now if you'll excuse me, I have a festering, bile-spitting pet demon to go feed.  Hur dur, hur dur.

    As I always suspected. :)

    I'm okay with whatever happens with Lewis so long as he plays somewhere and don't get no more injured.

     

    And i like the subtle comparison of assuming ChatAI is getting Mike Judge characters right, just like TD hivemind gets the Twins FO.

     

    Both are  more or less reasonable extrapolations from visible accumulated external data.. Perhaps it even suggests an explanation for the TD analogue of the Great Cornholio?

    First off, I also agree the FO doesn't listen to their fans, generally speaking, nor should they. They are, generally speaking, lol, way more plugged in knowledgeable than we fans are. I do think they listen once in a while when it comes to keeping or bringing back popular players, but only if they fit, and then, they only hear whispers that shouldn't really affect their decisions. They need to build the best team they can, PERIOD.

    I both agree and disagree with the OP's sentiment on Lewis. On the one hand, I've felt all along...even with wanting the Twins to WIN...I've been on record that with regard to Lewis, Kirilloff, and Balazovic...that I'm more concerned about their recoveries and the long game of their careers and their performance and contributions to the Twins future. In each case, I've been fine if the Twins really felt each, or all, needed to wait until July or August for any promotion. I want them healthy, confident, and ready to go.

    On the other hand, Kirilloff has proven himself at every milb level, and the ML level in his brief time of good health. Lewis flashed, slipped a little due to rapid promotion and a few small, nagging but dismissive injuries. Fully healthy, everything "clicked" when he went to the AFL a few years ago. His limited AAA time in 2022, after recovery, was fantastic. While his ML time last year was SSS, he sure proved that he belongs. (Though the OB was pretty small). I do expect him to be brought up June 1st when his rehab and 60 day stint is over. And I'm OK with that, and wait with eager anticipation for him! And I'm fine with him concentrating on SS/3B for now. Even as confident as Lewis is, nothing wrong with him just being "comfortable" playing in the dirt for now. OF possibilities can wait until the offseason and ST to discuss his future position options. No problem! I think Lewis, Krilloff, Correa once he FINALLY gets in a comfortable groove, and a healthy Polanco, (possibly Julien contributing), can provide a HIT tool to augment a lineup still built as too much "power or bust" scenario that can make a difference.

    I'm also OK if he has a few too many 0-for days and doesn't look ready/confident in his approach and they option him to St Paul for another few weeks. Not saying it's going to happen, but I'm OK if they decide that is best to get him in a comfortable groove/approach.

    I think the kid is special, and can be an All Star at any of 6 positions, depending how other positions shake out. 

    Different, but related, Headrick has surprised the hell out of me. And Balazovic has not surprised me. Headrick blossomed enough in 2022 to be added to the 40 man. His work in ST surprised me as I didn't expect the velocity jump, and generally good stuff. He's even flashed a little with the Twins in his brief time with them. Despite any opinions as to what happened to Balazovic on the eve of ST, he showed up healthy and early and ready to go. And then stuff happened, whatever it was. And while he's shaking off rust, and the BB are too high, he's looking like the top prospect he was supposed to be coming in to 2022. The Mahle and Maeda situations have depleted AAA depth right now with SWR suddenly struggling. And the Twins need both Headrick and Balazovic as rotation depth right now. 

    But the Twins are...sorry Saints fans...more important than their AAA team. And if either is not quite ready for, or needed tomorrow, for a rotation spot, I'm OK with them adding to the pen, which is struggling with Thielbar out, and Jax trying to find himself. 

    This team has a chance to make some real noise if the offense can finally get untracked. And I do believe Lewis has the potential to help, when ready. And I don't want to short change the future of either Headrick...who I think is a bona-fide top middle relief option if not better...or Balazovic as a potential rotation arm. But at some point you have to look at talent and need and make the move. Talent often rises, eventually if not immediately. But it only happens with opportunity. 

    This is a front office that blamed fans for last September's meltdown.  They sure as heck don't care what fans think about anything, much less the roster.  They traded away fan favorite Arraez without thinking twice, and by holding on to Pagan  the FO is actively trolling fans "who think they know better".  

    Also I'd suggest the poster look up the word "bloodlust" and ask himself if this is the best way to describe fans desiring prospects to get called up.  

    Looking forward to Lewis just like everybody else. He’s going through what is essentially his Spring Training this month. I assume he will be up by mid-June to July 1 at latest.

    3B is not a problem since Miranda went down. Farmer is sufficient defensively & our 2nd/3rd best hitter per statistics.

    Polanco comes back we’re solid at 2B. CC is at SS. Kirilloff is playing great. Catchers are doing a decent job on both sides of the plate. Infield is set, near-term.

    I see Lewis at 3B by July 1 with Farmer back into resting guys around the infield & playing 60-70% of the time.

    Current Line-up v. RH starters:

                       OPS+

    Gallo -       139 CF

    Buxton -    124 DH

    Correa -      92 SS

    Kirilloff -    184 1B

    Polanco -   122 2B

    Farmer -     119 3B

    Larnach -    96 LF

    Jeffers -     109 C

    Kepler -      103 RF

    If 100 is essentially a baseline for reasonable production we aren’t as in terrible need for help as we all think. TIMELY hitting helps……..we all expect Larnach & Correa to hit at least 40 points higher BA by end of July……..decent line-up. 

    With Gordon out I’d opt for Gallo or Kepler in CF v. Castro. Castro doesn’t have the bat to start & provides nice flexibility off the bench in various roles.

    HELP is needed in the Pen!! Maeda - Headrick - Balazovic are all worth looks in the Pen….IMO.

     

     

    Larnach's problem wasn't struggling for one series.  I wish commenters and especially article authors would understand that guys who strike out a ton (like Larnach, Severino) in the minors really aren't going to be anything in the majors unless they're really, really young for their level.  Larnach has very little chance, though a few years from now he might break out for a half a season or so, anything is possible.  Julien is on the cusp.  The one interesting strikeout guy who's not super young is Wallner.  I expect nothing from him, but his toolset is interesting.  

    But Larnach I almost guarantee will never be anything for the Twins.  When he was in the high minors, the Twins needed to move him to one of the few non-analytical teams left.  I don't think there are any anymore.  Meanwhile, Larnach's "hot start" had faded already with the strikeouts mounting before he went into the series deep dive.

    When you have a whole team of guys barely better than this, it makes you shake your head at trading Luis Arraez, a trade I didn't like in the first place.

    On 5/22/2023 at 8:23 AM, Hans Birkeland said:

    I wrote on this site that when Alex Kirilloff finished his rehab assignment, he would be optioned to Triple A. That happened, but for less than a week…

    Which is why I’m always skeptical when the front office does exactly what the fan hivemind wants it to do. Their jobs are more important than your vibes…

    …That brings me to Royce Lewis. He is eligible to return to the Twins on June 1st, and fans are already clamoring for his immediate return




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