Reviewing the Twins Extensions From Last Spring

Other than continuing to hit Eddie Rosario fourth, I'm not sure much annoyed me more than not actually utilizing some of our backup infielders (especially Adrianza) to give Polanco some time off in the second half of the season. Gotta give him some time off this season.

Hard to think of someone making $7 million or so a year as underpaid. The Twins took a gamble and Max opted for a very secure life changing contract. No one is getting screwed here. 

Hard to think of someone making $7 million or so a year as underpaid. The Twins took a gamble and Max opted for a very secure life changing contract. No one is getting screwed here.

You didn't read the article did you?

Nowhere in the article is it claimed that Kepler is underpaid or getting screwed.

I certainly hope we can extend both Berrios & Buxton (the BBs). It might be tough

Buxton is a hard one to extend. I'm sure the Twins would love to, but at what price. A healthy Buxton has a much different value than the version that misses half the season. If I'm Buxton, I bet on myself and hope for a healthy season and then look at an extension

Hard to think of someone making $7 million or so a year as underpaid. The Twins took a gamble and Max opted for a very secure life changing contract. No one is getting screwed here. 

We are talking about money relative to production, not simply a lump sum of money. In that regard Max was underpaid. 

“2019 was the breakout year we have all been waiting for and we now realize how underpaid Kepler will be.”

 

That’s a claim Kepler is being under paid. Literally in the second sentence written about Max.

My bad, missed that.

But definitely no suggestion that he's being screwed.

I'd try and extend Buxton to a similar deal, the Twins have continued to gamble on this guy for his entire career and you'd think at this point they might as well see if they can buy low on his potential. I know all about the "sunk cost" fallacy and the Twins might find themselves in that area with Bux - but at this point he's shown he does have the skills, if he can stay on the field.

Polanco was great? Not in my book. I like his bat, but he is a defensive liability.

Buxton is a hard one to extend. I'm sure the Twins would love to, but at what price. A healthy Buxton has a much different value than the version that misses half the season. If I'm Buxton, I bet on myself and hope for a healthy season and then look at an extension

...not just "misses half a season",  he misses half of EVERY season ( more if you include his rookie year).  

Around the horn - 

C) Garver is not a kid, and plays a position that wears guys down overnight (ahem, Joe Mauer).  No long-term deal.

2B) Arreaz has just over a half season in the bigs.  A nice bat but not much defense shown.  And No long-term analysis can be done.  No deal, but check again at end of the year to see if first season is a harbinger or a fluke.

1B 3B RF and SS are looked up.

Rosario is a tough one.  Puts up some nice numbers (and they seem to improve year over year barring injury) and will undoubtedly give max effort and play hurt.  Too bad he'll also play injured and do himself and the team no good.  He is also a bit of a air-head in the field, but does have the "tools" to be a top-notch defender.  If you say he is "easy to replace", remember that he is the best LF the Twins have had since Delmond Young!  (remember that dumpster fire?  That should have been EASY to upgrade, but it took YEARS to do). I say make a fair offer to him to lock him up, but simply refuse to go too high - there are outfield prospects galore in the Twins system, and they are close to being ML-ready.  Kiraloff (sp?), Larnach or even one of the middle infield prospects (as a bridge to a real OF prospect) can fill his shoes for at least one of his plusses (Contract hitting, power hitting, glove, arm), and maybe more.  

Hate to say this but Buxton gets NO offer beyond a one year deal.  And that would have to be HEAVILY incentive laden with a low base salary.  We all know why - he plays less than half the schedule.  And he doesn't get "hurt", he gets "INJURED".  Badly injured.  Every year.  Even in 2017 (his good year) he missed over a months' worth of games.  He has to prove that his entire ML career (injury-wise) has been a fluke.  Tall order.

Sign Berios.  Long term. At whatever cost. Period. If his arm is sound, lock him up.  He isn't an elite pitcher (yet) and may never be a top-5 starter, but he is a high quality starter who is reasonably durable and he works HARD to improve himself.  To replace him in the free agency market, you'll need to sign one of the top (if not the top) free-agent starter when he leaves.  That means outbidding the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Angels, Red Sox.... well you get the picture.  Feel confident in replacing Berios tby that route?  Really think you'll see someone better in a Twins uniform? Yeah...

My opinion is that you NEVER sign bullpen guys (closer excepted) to long term deals.  Too variable year to year and decent/good relievers are always available, be it in free agency or at the trade deadline.  Even the Twins can get them!  And whatever you do don't give Duffy a long-term deal of ANY sort.  He has stunk too bad far too recently to make me believe that last year is his new normal.  Hope it is, but... my dad said put hope in one hand and sh*t in the other and see which one fill first.

We will have internal replacements for Berrios prior to 2022. No need to break the bank or pick up a Mauer contract in free agency. We can take care of our bullpen needs internally.

I got money on Max getting MVP votes

5 years for 90M sounds doable. My thought was he would want a minimum of Wheeler money. 5 for 118M.

I would definitely try and extend Berrios. Give him a wheeleresque offer and get it done. That said, I differ from most of the Twins fans here on Rosario. I think he's a good player even with the gaffs and would be open to extending him for the right price. Signing him to an extension doesn't mean we can't trade him down the road.

Another area were i diverge from many posters here is Buxton. I'm just not sold on him yet. If he could stay consistently healthy and be more consistent offensively I would pull the trigger on an extension, for the right price. Perhaps this year is the year. I'd also like to see a Trevor May extension, perhaps towards the end of the season. If he pitches like he did in 2019 it's absolutely worth it. I still think he could be a good starter for the Twins, but it looks like that ship has sailed which is somewhat unfortunate.