Report From The Fort: Eight Guys, Three Spots, and Roster Math

FORT MYERS—Barring injuries, 10 of the 13 position-player spots on the Twins' projected roster are already locked in: 

• Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, and Royce Lewis will start in the infield.
• Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnach will start in the outfield.
• Ryan Jeffers and Victor Caratini will be the Twins' catchers.
• Kody Clemens will be a corner utility glove and likely start versus most right-handed pitchers, somewhere. 

That leaves three bench spots, so let’s look at the candidates, along with my percentage estimation that each makes the Opening Day roster. (Since there are three spots, those percentages have to add up to 300%.) The three spots are:

1. Backup Shortstop

In the past, the Twins could look around their starting infield for backup shortstop options. No longer. Willi Castro is in Colorado, and Lee moved into the lead role at shortstop when Carlos Correa was traded. Thus, one of the bench spots has to be taken by a true shortstop who can step in when Lee needs to miss a game—or even needs a short IL stint. One of the following three players will be on the roster, and your guess is as good as mine about which one is in the lead.

Tristan Gray (30%) is 29 years old and only has 122 MLB plate appearances with a .634 OPS, but that’s why he’s competing for a bench spot. He also has lots of flexibility in that he can play all over the infield, and his underlying metrics suggest he has the most offensive upside of the three. 

Ryan Kreidler (30%) has the best glove of the candidates, but he also has a career .383 OPS(!) over four years and 211 plate appearances. His Triple-A numbers (.717 OPS over 1,223 PA) suggest he’s better than that, but I mean, he has to be, right? One other advantage he has over the other two players is that he can also play center field. 

Orlando Arcia (40%) is the 10-year veteran who was an All-Star as recently as 2023, but has posted a .599 OPS over his last two years. Can the 31-year-old use spring training to show he’s back to his old self and prolong his career one more year? I’m not optimistic, but I’m still giving him a slight edge because he’s the veteran and could probably opt out of the organization if he doesn’t make the roster. Which is similar to the situation for….

2. Backup Center Fielder

Nobody is going to replace Byron Buxton’s impact in this lineup, but despite his last two (mostly) healthy seasons, an insurance policy for him isn’t just wise; it’s a necessity. If he’s out for an extended period of time, his replacement will probably come from Triple A. But for the occasional necessary day off, the Twins will need a Plan B. Even if Kreidler makes the team, I’m almost sure one of these two center field candidates will make the roster, too, for different reasons.

James Outman (50%) was acquired at the trade deadline from the Dodgers, but didn’t hit any better with the Twins (.558 OPS) than he did with LA (.487 OPS). That means he hasn’t hit well since he was a 26-year-old rookie in 2023, and worse, he didn’t look very good defensively in center or left field, which was perceived to be his strength. But he does have one thing going for him: he’s out of minor-league options. If he doesn’t make the team, the Twins could lose him to another team without getting anything in return. That’s not something the asset-conscious Twins liked to do when the team was run by Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli, but we’ll see if that’s different under Jeremy Zoll and Derek Shelton. 

Austin Martin (90%) has several things going for him that make him a likely fit for the Twins roster. He can play center field, he’s right-handed, and he can steal bases. The Twins team needs all of those, and it probably helps that he’s a 26-year-old former top prospect. It makes too much sense for him to be on this roster for it not to happen, one way or the other.

3. Offensive Help

The Twins’ offense ranked 23rd in runs scored last year, and a few spots in their lineup could benefit from platooning with a right-handed bat. Hence, the last spot on the roster will be focused on adding some offense.

Eric Wagaman (25%) is a right-handed hitter who hits left-handed pitching (.783 OPS in 2025) but has never really hit righties, so his role would need to be limited. But that might work. He’s basically a right-handed version of Clemens, minus the ability to play second base. As such, the Twins could mix and match the two at several corner positions and have Wagaman available for high-leverage at-bats versus left-handed relievers late in games. 

Alan Roden (20%) is not a right-handed bat, but they traded for him last year at the deadline. He played left field for the Twins last year, and could be a fit there again this year if the Twins determine they would rather see Trevor Larnach mostly at designated hitter. If Roden makes the team, it probably won’t be as a bench bat, but as a starting left fielder. That would give the team another left-handed corner outfield bat to be added to Larnach, Wallner, and Clemens. 

Gio Urshela (15%) is a veteran right-handed bat, but with less defensive flexibility than Wagaman. That doesn’t mean he can’t win the job, but it seems like he’s on the outside looking in, unless there’s an injury or Wagaman looks overmatched.

The truth is that one can mix and match these guys and end up with different strengths and different weaknesses that reflect what you value in a baseball team. So let’s hear your thoughts in the comments about your choices—and more importantly, your reasons.