Rays' Roster Challenges Open Door for Twins in Playoffs

The playoffs are around the corner, and the Twins will likely be a part of the field. Their options as far as opponents (the six-seeded wild card team) are pretty scary: The dynamic Blue Jays offense with Kevin Gausman fronting their rotation; The Julio Rodriguez-led Mariners with Luis Castillo and George Kirby leading theirs; and lastly, the defending champion Astros with newly acquired Justin Verlander. 

I'm not too fond of the Twins' chances in any of those matchups, even if all we're looking for is one win to break the horrible playoff futility streak.

One matchup I like, which is more likely than you think, is the Rays. Early in the season, the Rays looked unstoppable. They had a powerful and multi-faceted offense led by Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, with some highly effective platoon players putting up runs in droves, no matter the competition. They featured aggressive baserunning and elite defense around the diamond- typical Rays.

Their rotation was dominant, and they waited on the return of Tyler Glasnow and later acquired Aaron Civale at the deadline amid his breakout year. The Rays always find a way to form incredibly effective, high-velocity bullpens; this year was no exception. They demolished the Twins in June, sweeping a series in St. Petersburg fairly easily.

Why would the Twins want to face a team like that? Injuries. And the Wander Franco situation.

The Rays have stunningly lost four frontline starting pitchers to Tommy John surgery this year (three if you omit the unestablished Shane Baz). Drew Rasmussen has posted a 135 ERA+ since the start of 2022 but succumbed to elbow surgery in May. Lefty Jeffrey Springs had a 165 ERA+ since 2022 but dropped in April. Most recently, the Rays lost ace Shane McClanahan, who had contributed a 135 ERA+ while striking out 28.4% of batters over the past two years. He's also a lefty.

Glasnow is back and is dealing, but has never pitched more than 111 innings in a year due to injury (80 so far this year) and has a 5.75 postseason ERA.

Civale is solid but is probably pitching above his talent level, with a 2.44 ERA and a 3.32 FIP buoyed by an unsustainably low home run rate (.5 HR allowed per nine innings). He also blew up in the ALDS last year against the Yankees, putting the Guardians in a deficit they could not overcome in the deciding game five.

Zach Eflin has proven to be a shrewd pickup, having a career year with a 115 ERA+ while striking out 25% of batters. But he has battled knee injuries throughout his career and has missed time this year, exiting a start against Miami in late July. He didn't miss a start and has been solid since, but it is something Rays fans are watching closely.

The Rays' starting rotation issues are so prevalent that they use former Twins reliever Zack Littell in that role. If you forgot, Littell was responsible for throwing eight pitches in the fifth inning of game one of the 2019 ALDS, with the game still in the balance, managing only one strike and taking the loss. He was cut loose after a brutal 2020 season and has bounced since. Admittedly, he has been decent for the Rays.

As for the offense, well, it's still pretty good, but the Rays have lost some key pieces.

Taylor Walls was a plus offensively (for a while) in addition to playing excellent defense at either short or third base, but he is down with an oblique strain, and his return is not imminent.

Manuel Margot has been a staple of the Rays' attack for several years, playing great outfield defense with average or better offense. He's also a great base runner but will be out, possibly for the year, with elbow surgery.

And then there is Wander Franco, the team's $182M man. He is on the restricted list due to what looks to be an alarming relationship with a minor, possibly multiple minors. We don't know all the details; frankly, I don't want to know. But his career may be over; at the least, he won't be playing for the team this year.

Franco has been electric on the field when not benched for lack of effort. He has hit for a 126 OPS+ with 30 steals, 17 home runs, and elite shortstop defense, adding up to 5.5 bWAR in only 112 games. The Rays offense ran through him, and he was only getting better at age 22.

Arozarena and Diaz are great players, but the former is streaky, and the latter isn't a significant power threat despite a career-high 16 home runs this year.

The team was scuffling even before Franco's last game on August 12th. They have been 20-23 since the start of July but have recently taken advantage of a soft part of their schedule, winning series against the Angels, Rockies, Yankees, Tigers, and Guardians in August. They will face a sterner test in the coming weeks, going against the Red Sox and Mariners before arriving in Minnesota to meet the Twins in September.

But, hold on, aren't the Rays 26 games over .500? Why would they fall to the sixth seed in the AL? The answer is no fault of their own - the Mariners are playing out of their minds right (two eight-game winning streaks so far in August) after having some World Series buzz pre-season. 

The Astros, currently the fifth seed, are a juggernaut, and the division-leading Rangers are too solid on both sides of the ball to take many more steps backward. The Blue Jays have picked up 5.5 games on the Rays since the start of July and look formidable, although they are more of a longshot. Only two teams must pass the Rays for Tampa to fall into the sixth seed.

The wild card picture is seriously competitive now that the Mariners have arrived. It shines a light on how unfair it is that the Twins will likely get to play a 95-win team at home despite middling play all season that will give them 85 or so division-inflated wins. But that's baseball, baby.

The matchup of the Rays and Twins is juicy beyond the roster attrition Tampa has experienced:

Stuff-wise, no Twins pitcher can match up to Glasnow, but the pitching advantage will certainly swing toward the Twins against Civale and Eflin. The Rays have a better lineup on paper, but when you factor in that all three Rays starters are righties, the outlook looks murkier; the Twins are a playoff-caliber lineup against righties, especially if Alex Kirilloff is available.

Defense and baserunning will favor the Rays, but in terms of matching up against any of the other potential playoff teams, you have to like the Twins' chances against this version of the Rays. It's not about the team you field in April, but the one you field come October. 

If only they had picked up a bullpen arm at the deadline.