Minnesota Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher

I'm a believer that catchers play a vital role in their team's run prevention success – one that is underrated by what current statistics can measure. There are certain aspects of calling a game, building rapport with pitchers, and withstanding the sheer rigor of major-league catching that are hard to quantify, but undoubtedly impactful.

Last year, the Twins used only two catchers all season, and both have strong defensive reputations. This inarguably factored into the success of the pitching staff all year long, and now Minnesota will carry forward some continuity, with the same duo in line to return and split time here in 2024.

TWINS CATCHERS AT A GLANCE

Starter: Ryan Jeffers
Backup: Christian Vázquez
Depth: Jair Camargo, Brian O'Keefe (NRI), Patrick Winkel (NRI)
Prospects: Camargo, Noah Cardenas, Ricardo Olivar

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 9th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 15th out of 30

THE GOOD
Jeffers is coming off a breakthrough season that saw him emerge as arguably the league's biggest offensive threat at his position. His .858 OPS led all MLB catchers with 300 or more plate appearances, as he ranked second among Twins hitters in OBP (.369) and first in slugging (.490). Being able to insert a bat like this at the catcher position provides a massive competitive advantage, which is why Rocco Baldelli started Jeffers in every single playoff game last year. (It's also why Joe Mauer just went into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.)

The breakout season was a change of pace for Jeffers, following back-to-back disappointing campaigns. For the 26-year-old and the organization that so badly wanted to believe in him, this has been a long time coming. 

"I worked really hard to have the year I had last year, but I've still got to turn around and do it again. I don't have any doubts that I will be able to," Jeffers told Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. "It didn't feel like a fluke. It felt like I finally laid the groundwork of who I am as a ballplayer. It felt like it was an extremely repeatable type of season."

The prolific power-hitting performance was rather convincing. Jeffers came through with monster home runs in crucial spots, including an unforgettable eighth-inning go-ahead blast against the Rangers that nearly incited a brawl. He drilled a 10th-inning homer in May that registered as the highest exit velocity by any Twins hitter in the Statcast era. 

Jeffers stepped up and did amazing things in big spots, which is the sign of a star. He also improved on what had been a glaring deficiency in his defensive game, throwing out a career-high 25% of base stealers--in a season in which the league's success rate on steals skyrocketed.

Partnering with Jeffers behind the plate once again is Vázquez, who is entering the second season of a three-year, $30-million deal. In stark contrast to Jeffers, Vázquez provided no thump with the bat last year, slashing .223/.280/.318, for a meager 65 OPS+ that ranked as his worst since 2018. However, the veteran backstop graded out extremely well defensively, enabling him to produce 1.0 fWAR in 102 games.

Even though the price tag might seem rough for a backup catcher, the Twins were wise to hold onto Vázquez for the depth and assurance he provides. Jeffers flashed a big ceiling, but he has a long history of injuries and lapses. Having a seasoned vet like Vázquez available is more than just a luxury.

THE BAD
Ever since Mauer moved to first base a decade ago, catcher has been a volatile position for the Twins, who've struggled to sustain much success there. Part of what made the Hall of Famer so special was his stability and consistency, which are brutally hard to maintain as a catcher. In the post-Mauer era, we've seen flashes – an All-Star first half from Kurt Suzuki, an explosive Bomba Squad contribution from Mitch Garver – but both those faded quickly. Is Jeffers destined for the same, following his own glimpse of greatness? 

He might feel confident his breakout season was "extremely repeatable," but FanGraphs has doubts, projecting Jeffers for 1.8 fWAR this year (down from 2.7) with a 70-point drop-off in wOBA. The 26-year-old has unfortunately earned his status as one of the biggest regression candidates on the team; he slashed just .203/.277/.384 between 2021-22, and last year his strikeout and walk rates remained static while his production was buoyed by a .359 BABIP. Unless he improves his contact rate or discipline, Jeffers will always be susceptible to the kinds of slumps that plagued him in the postseason, wherein he went 2-for-19.

Even if he doesn't replicate his 134 OPS+ from last year (he won't), Jeffers can still be a valuable primary catcher with his power and defense, so long as he's healthy. It will be interesting to see how his fielding metrics grade out, as last year they were quite poor despite his improvements in controlling the run game. The sudden drop-off in framing effectiveness was especially striking. (Pun intended.) This a fine example of why I feel there's a disconnect between catching metrics and reality, because I doubt you'd find anyone with the Twins (or their opponents) who would consider Jeffers anything less than a very good defensive catcher.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Given all the extremes involved, I'd expect some regression to the mean across the board: Jeffers will likely be a little worse offensively, a little better defensively. Vázquez will probably experience the reverse. As long as both stay relatively healthy, it's hard to see the catcher position being any kind of real liability for the Twins. 

Their true upside here really depends on Jeffers. If he can find a way to sustain or even improve upon what he did in 2023, the Twins will boast one of the best catching units in baseball. On the flip, if Jeffers misses extended time – as he did in both of the previous two seasons – that upside pretty much evaporates with the step down to Vázquez, and then you're one injury away from reaching into some very untested depth. Their ideal scenario still involves using each player often.

As Mauer prepares for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, the Twins are hoping Jeffers is ready to solidify his standing (er, squatting?) as the franchise's best two-way catcher since. If he falls short, Minnesota's outlook at this position isn't so hot, with Vázquez turning 34 this year and no clear impact prospects on the way.

Where would you rank the Twins' catcher situation within the AL Central? What about in the league as a whole? What developments do you expect behind the plate this year?