Player Predictions: 3B Trevor Plouffe

Thank you for addressing the idiocy of focusing on double plays hit into. it's a variable stat based on opportunity - basically rbi and babip in the same stat. Time to stop obsessing about mauer and plouffe on this front.

It's a mistake to screw around with Sano's future just to keep an average 3B like Plouffe at his position.  Sano's future has to be at 3b with Mauer and Park manning first and in the short term whatever defensive struggles he has will be even worse in RF.  To get his full value as a player he has to succeed at 3B.   Plus it is more than likely that Sano's struggles in RF will affect his offense as well.  Don't screw up a future star to protect an average 3B.  I like Plouffe but Sano is far more important to the future of the franchise.

ZIPS
.252 .315 .427 .742

Steamer
.250 .315 .422 .737

Marcel
.251 .313 .423 .736

PECOTA
.246 .310 .418 .728

Though I'm not as optimistic as Seth, I think I would take the upper end of these projections. Also, I'm kind of expect that he will spend time on the DL. Last year was his first DL-free season, so I expect him to miss a few weeks and play, say, 130 games. 

The raw GIDP number is a counting stat, but there are other ways to look at it.

 

B-Ref has both GIDP percentage in opportunities, and also Rdp, the number of runs better/worse than an average batter in those same DP opportunities.  Plouffe's percentage was 22%, near the league lead around a bunch of catchers, Aramis Ramirez, Billy Butler, etc., and his Rdp was -4, tied for worst in MLB.  His opportunities were comparable to his previous few seasons, but his GIDP skyrocketed.

 

Plouffe "added" another -3 runs from baserunning.  It may not seem like much, but those -7 runs completely canceled out the +7 runs above average he added by batting and fielding in 2015, according to B-Ref.

 

Average batting is still way above replacement, of course, and Plouffe gets another little WAR boost for his position, and 2015 was by far his worst season in those DP/baserunning measures, but hopefully it's not a trend that continues!

Yeah, I think the larger point would be that these lists are largely variable year to year - Plouffe would never get credit for "only" hitting into 12 DPs the year before so there's no reason to constantly mention his 28 DPs last year. There's not much rhyme or reason to the thing (exception: Tejada, Miguel). At some point you're assigning numbers for things that are largely beyond a guy's control. We all had caution last year about Danny Santana's BABIP and should do the same here. Plouffe is unlikely to see that spike in DP% again.

Interestingly, in 1997 Craig Biggio had 619 at bats without grounding into a double play. And in 1935 Augie Glen batted 646 times without grounding into a double play. Those are kind of amazing feats. 

I think it's worth noting that Plouffe performed in that group in 2015.  Sometimes an odd random name slips into the group for a single season, and hopefully that was Plouffe's case, although it doesn't take any advanced stats to suggest he fits the profile of a perennial GIDP offender as a slow corner player who is turning 30 this year.

I really disagree that it's worth mentioning. It has happened one year, not multiple years. There's no thread to show that this is anything but a random occurrence. His GB% didn't change in any meaningful manner that suggests some new approach at the plate - this is the definition of a random occurrence. There were more guys on base with less than 2 outs when he hit his ground balls this year. That is not something worth mentioning when considering Plouffe's future. If it happens again this year, then we have something to talk about.

For example:

Pedro Alvarez is a 29 year old corner infielder (1B) who is not known for his speed. His 2015 batting and games played numbers are very similar to Plouffe's. He has a much higher GB to FB ratio (1.16 to 0.69) and a similar LD%. So you would expect Pedro to have hit into more DPs that Plouffe. Yet he grounded into 6 DPs (7% of his 91 opportunities) while Trevor Plouffe grounded into 28 DPs (22% of his 126 opportunities).* They both hit into 12 in 2014 and have generally maintained percentages around 10%-12%. Pedro Alvarez is as unlikely to hit into 6 DPs in 2016 as Plouffe is to repeat his 28. They will both almost certainly regress to the mean.

It's really not worth worrying about Plouffe's supposed double play propensity or taking it into consideration when thinking about Plouffe's upcoming year. This "propensity" is based on one flukey year and has no statistical basis for recurrence. I wouldn't value Alvarez any more because he has a newfound ability to avoid double plays nor would I value Plouffe any less because he is suddenly prone to double plays. It has nothing to do with my projections for the two in the upcoming year.

* I understand there are other ways to make a DP but I think we can call them all grounded for brevity's sake.