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The Twins are on their way to allowing the most runs of any American League team, for the second time in three years. They've been in the bottom three every season since 2011, with the exception of last year when they were ninth.
So, things have taken a turn.
The franchise appeared to be emerging from its run prevention rut last year but instead, the worst was yet to come. Entering play Thursday, the Twins had allowed 128 more runs than the Rangers. That's 50 more than the gap between between No. 14 Texas and No.1 Cleveland.
It's a mess made possible by a pitching staff that has already, with two weeks left to go, allowed more home runs than any Twins staff since the turn of the century, and a defense that has converted the lowest percentage of balls in play into outs of any MLB club. It's been a team effort.
As a result, the Twins may lose 100 games despite an offense that's on pace to score 750 runs. There have been seven 100-loss teams since 2010, the last time Minnesota made the playoffs, and none scored more than 615 runs.
Obviously, the reimagined front office needs to do whatever they can to prevent anything like this from happening again. The lineup isn't going to slow down. But with the Twins being so far behind the pack on the other side, how can they make up massive ground in a hurry? How can they move back toward the era in which they never failed to field an above-average staff?
I thought it might be instructive to take a look back at those years. Where have the Twins strayed? What lessons, if any, might a new baseball ops chief be wise to absorb while incorporating his or her own fresh philosophies?
Here were some signatures of those effective 2000s pitching units:
1: Health
Sure, those groups had some injuries here and there. That's inescapable. But when you look back, Johan Santana was remarkably durable during his time in Minnesota, and Joe Nathan basically never got hurt until his Tommy John surgery. It sure helps to keep your No. 1 starter and closer healthy for such lengths of time.
For me, the leading storylines when looking back at this year's pitching woes will be the ruined shoulders of both Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins.
The organization sought to build around these two in a similar fashion as they did with the aforementioned duo. Hughes' performance in 2014 was, arguably, the closest approximation to 'ace-like' for a Twins starter since Santana's departure. Perkins, like Nathan before him, moved into the league's elite tier of closers almost instantly after assuming the role ahead of his 30th birthday.
Terry Ryan made long-term commitments to Hughes and Perkins, positioning them as building blocks for the construction of his staffs. And unfortunately, both have descended essentially into worst-case scenarios with their arms. Shoulder injuries are tough, and Santana himself is evidence enough of that.
Could Ryan have foreseen this outcome? Maybe last year, but by then both hurlers were entrenched as cornerstones. Could the trainers have prevented it? Doubtful. In this regard, the former GM got dealt a bum hand, and it's a big part of why he's now the former GM.
2: Hitting Lotto Tickets
Santana and Francisco Liriano were the two most electric starters to come through the system during those years, and Ryan managed to stumble upon both, more or less, through serendipitous happenstance.
Santana was a Rule 5 pick, foolishly discarded by two organizations. Liriano was a toss-in from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade. TR capitalized on both opportunities and hit big. In the years since, he had no shortage of Rule 5 pick-ups or trades for fringey pitchers, but the big hits evaporated.
Alex Meyer and Trevor May weren't so different as prospects from Liriano; big arms with questions surrounding control and/or mechanics. But the inability of either to even define a role in the majors has been a big part of the failure to launch on the pitching front. This brings us to our next item.
3: Developing Control
When the Twins acquired Johan, he could hardly find the zone. Tethered to him as a Rule 5 pick, they endured a rookie season in 2000 that saw him issue 54 walks in 86 innings. They helped him find his way, as they did with many others. The Twins both sought out and developed pitchers who could hammer the zone.
Sure, it was a specialty of pitching coach Rick Anderson, but he didn't get moldable strike-throwers like Brad Radke and Carlos Silva and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn by accident. The team actively sought out such profiles, through trades and the draft, and converted them into big-leaguers who succeeded mainly by throwing the ball to the right spot.
It's hard to figure where this process has gone amiss. There are still signs that prospects are receiving effective instruction. Jose Berrios had outstanding walk rates throughout the minors. J.T. Chargois had dramatically improved his control by the time he reached Triple-A. But something's not clicking when they make the jump.
The Twins actually rank near the top of the league in walk rate overall – one of their lone strengths – but too many of the most important guys aren't figuring it out.
It doesn't reflect well on Neil Allen, whose job is undoubtedly in jeopardy. When the Twins assembled a coaching staff for Paul Molitor, they took a gamble on a pitching coach with no major-league experience. There is no evidence that it's paying off. Too many players are failing to grow, or worse regressing, under his watch.
Perhaps the Twins would be well served to replace him with a more experienced alternative, who better balances Molitor's lack of experience in the area. Dare I say they should seek a coach who instills an Anderson-esque "throw it over the plate at all costs" mentality?
I do believe all of this pales in comparison to one final element.
4: Defense
During the decade where "The Twins Way" was forged and worshipped, defense was always a foundational staple. It's what made 'pitch to contact' work. Ryan coveted glove-first players, to the extent that he ran out Doug Mientkiewicz as a longtime regular at first, made Juan Castro an Opening Day shortstop, and basically eschewed the DH position for many years.
Playing defense – from making plays to executing basic fundamentals – has been a struggle for this current group. And while that's not a simple problem to solve, it's one that must be attacked from all angles during the offseason. Whether it's personnel, coaching or placement, everything must be critically evaluated.
What steps would you take toward reversing the Twins' run prevention woes? What lessons from the past would you apply to the future?
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