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    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    'People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.'

    Rogers Hornsby's legendary quote almost always dances through my head around this time of year, as I barricade myself inside from treacherous cold fronts and count down the days to those four glorious words: Pitchers and catchers report.

    There are always elements of mystery and excitement at play as the off-season winds down, but right now it's all magnified. First, because the team's biggest off-season splash is almost surely yet to come. And second, because the Twins are uniquely positioned to make a run at a division title and more in 2018.

    The window is wide open, due in large part to very fortuitous (and temporary) outside circumstances.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today

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    Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto had a pretty wild quote last week. He said that in the game right now, "You could argue there is more competition to get the No. 1 pick in the draft than to win the World Series."

    And well, there's a lot of truth in that statement, which surely makes MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred bristle. Agent Scott Boras lamented earlier this week that a "non-competitive cancer" is "ruining the fabric of the sport."

    Dramatic and biased? Yes. But that doesn't mean he's completely off base.

    The "loser bug" is certainly present in the AL Central, where three teams are making virtually no effort to contend.

    Ron Gardenhire's Tigers are coming off a season in which they finished last and traded away their best pitcher and hitter. Barring remarkable turnarounds from Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, along with some major rotation breakthroughs, Detroit appears destined for 90-plus losses.

    It's tough to expect much more from the Royals, who earlier this week dumped slugger Brandon Moss and standout lefty reliever Ryan Buchter in exchange for Jesse Hahn, who sadly has a decent shot at a rotation spot. Earlier in the same day, they'd settled for another year of Alcides Escobar at short, agreeing on a one-year pact. Kansas City may still have another big move or two left in the tank, but seems resigned to its fate as an also-ran in 2018. Keith Law recently ranked the organization's farm system as the worst in the AL while Baseball America pegged it second-worst in baseball.

    And of course, the White Sox are only one year removed from an epic teardown. They've got plenty of young talent, and could surprise by surpassing low expectations, but Chicago is in no way a legitimate threat in the division.

    Cleveland remains the de facto favorite, with good reason, but even the Indians haven't done much to separate themselves this off-season. Not yet, anyway.

    How often is it that three-fifths of your division is simultaneously rebuilding? Not very. And in this case it surely won't last long. The White Sox are already bringing along some of the key youngsters netted in their fire sale. You can't count on KC or Detroit staying down and out for too long.

    But right now, you can make a case they are the three worst teams in the American League on paper.

    This puts the Twins in a seriously advantageous position, not only removing barriers in their quest to take the AL Central, but also – potentially – padding their win total for a run at a wild-card spot.

    Derek Falvey and Thad Levine talk often about looking at the big picture. They won't sacrifice the long-term vision for short-term gains. Many front offices are of the same mind at this time, obviously.

    But the big picture is this: the division is as ripe for the taking as it has been in years. The league is in a strange state of flux. And the Twins have a coalescing young core that improved by 26 wins last year.

    I highly doubt the new front office expected to find itself in this position so quickly, but the time to strike is now. Windows don't stay open forever.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 54,951

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    It's not likely the division will be this weak again.....Det and the Sox will graduate players this year and next. I have no idea if they can take down CLE or not, but they should get a huge edge in the unbalanced schedule this year. It is a good year to take advantage of what they have been given, imo.

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    Nick Nelson

    Nick Nelson 15,666

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

    This puts the Twins in a seriously advantageous position, not only removing barriers in their quest to take the AL Central, but also – potentially – padding their win total for a run at a wild-card spot.

     

    As an added note on this, just to provide further context, the Twins will play 57 games this year against the White Sox, Tigers and Royals. That's more than a third of their schedule!

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    frightwig

    frightwig 190

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I don't really expect the Twins to come that close to Cleveland this year. If they don't sign Darvish or Cobb, they probably won't even grab a WC spot again. Right now, I see them as middle of the pack in the league. But, absolutely, this is the time when the front office should start pushing towards the postseason--particularly by improving the rotation.

     

    They're not as good as the Astros, Indians, Red Sox, or Yankees; and maybe not as good as the Angels and a few other WC contenders. But if they pick up a good SP, and the veterans can maintain their performance levels of last year, and Gonsalves or Romero has a breakout rookie year, while some other young players take another step up... who knows. They might get lucky. The front office needs to put the team in position to take advantage, if it happens.

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    Twins33

    Twins33 752

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Had the Twins finished last year, say, 4 or 5 games behind the Indians, then I could find arguments that the Twins could compete this year feasible. But it would take several acts of god, and several Yu Darvishs to make up, what, 18 games.

    That may be right but are they going to go on another 20ish game win streak again? I'm thinking not, though they could win a game every other day and still accomplish a similar result in the end..but my point is that I don't think the teams will be 18 games apart next year if the Twins improve the rotation.

     

    The Twins and Indians scored the same amount of runs last year but the Indians pitching was obviously way better. The Twins could possibly catch up with an add of Darvish and the improved bullpen. How much we have no idea. The Twins shaved 101 runs off their runs allowed from 2016 to 2017. We know the 2016 team underperformed but to allow 100 fewer runs seems like a big jump (not sure how common it is to make a 100 run jump in a positive way) and was mostly due to defense. They need to shave another 100 to be up there with all the big boys.

     

    The Indians young players could improve too, but I feel like adding Darvish plus the improved bullpen gets us closer than 15 out. Especially when they lost Santana, Jackson (good part time player) and Shaw. Those aren't huge losses but it makes a dent. Though I have zero clue if they lost significant time due to injury for any of their players so that would/could easily make up for the player losses from the offseason. And if our guys slump or don't improve on last year that will hurt too.

     

    There's a number of factors involved but I could definitely see a scenario where the Twins are within 5-7 games of the Indians. They absolutely need to improve the rotation for that to be possible though.

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    The Twins' goal should not be to have a team good enough to make the post-season through the back door, because of a bad division.  It should be to build a team good enough to win it all.

     

    I hope that they learned something from the 00s of post-season futility...

     

    The goal should be to have a team that can beat the Indians for the division and the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Nats, etc in the post-season.

    About time that someone in the Organization says that good enough is not good enough.

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    sftwinsfan

    sftwinsfan 401

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Yeah the 2000's Twins didn't win in the post-season, but in my opinion this team does not have more talent than those teams.  Look especially at 2006.  Mauer starting his prime winning a batting title.  Morneau was the AL MVP.  Torii Hunter in CF in his prime.  Michael Cuddyer in his prime in RF.  CY Young winner Johan Santanna in the rotation.  Solid vet in Brad Radke.  For awhile they had the phenom in Francisco Liriano before he got hurt.  Bullpen had Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon was rock-solid in the 8th.  Had guys like Dennys Reyes and Matt Guerrier before that.  A young Pat Neshek, Matt Garza and Glen Perkins just coming  up.  Man, it sucks they never got far in the post-season with all those guys.  

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    Thrylos

    Thrylos 8,325

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Yeah the 2000's Twins didn't win in the post-season, but in my opinion this team does not have more talent than those teams.  Look especially at 2006.  Mauer starting his prime winning a batting title.  Morneau was the AL MVP.  Torii Hunter in CF in his prime.  Michael Cuddyer in his prime in RF.  CY Young winner Johan Santanna in the rotation.  Solid vet in Brad Radke.  For awhile they had the phenom in Francisco Liriano before he got hurt.  Bullpen had Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon was rock-solid in the 8th.  Had guys like Dennys Reyes and Matt Guerrier before that.  A young Pat Neshek, Matt Garza and Glen Perkins just coming  up.  Man, it sucks they never got far in the post-season with all those guys.  

     

    That's the epitome of the "good enough" team.  The 2006 team.

     

    They had Punto as their starting 3B in the postseason and Tyner as their DH.

     

    And as far as rotation goes, was Santana and Radke minus his shoulder.  And Boof.

     

    Good enough to make the post season.   And then Oh and 3.

     

    Edited by Thrylos
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    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 12,610

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    2006 was quite a team. No telling what happens that year in the playoffs if Litiano doesn’t get hurt.

    Yeah, health in 2006 (and 09 and 10, too) was a big issue but that's the reality of low payroll teams. Frankly, I've always thought that the Twins decade from 01-10 with 6 division titles and one trip to the ALCS was more impressive than the Yankees one WS win in the same window.

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    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,785

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    There are multiple windows open. 

     

    Multiple Rebuilding Clubs is just one of them. 

     

    Competitive Tax Reset is a window

     

    The most impressive Free Agent Class in history next year is a window for this eyar

     

    Stacked AAA Arms in Rochester is a window.

     

    I agree with you Nick... Nice Article 

     

    Cleveland... I hand them Nothing!!! 

     

     

     

     

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    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    to respond to the original piece,

     

    Sports in general are seeing more "tanking" so to speak. There's value in those early picks and everyone knows it... it's far more valuable than a middling finish. In baseball, that's exacerbated by certain teams with resources to perpetually buy away the best FAs and extend their windows... it really does make it hard for the rest of the league to compete in that scenario. If you don't have a window of opportunity, trade your guys for prospects. It means several powerhouse teams and a whole bunch of crap...

     

    As for the Twins... I don't get how people say that Darvish will allow us to compete for a WC. We got a WC last year and are returning the same team with an improved pen and some SP depth that we haven't had in ages. Darvish is a go for it move that makes it realistic to compete with Cleveland and a possible deep playoff run.  

     

    As for the window, yeah, it's open. We need a guy like Darvish. We have about 4 years with this core and not enough sure things in the rotation to keep said Window open.

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    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 54,951

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    to respond to the original piece,

     

    Sports in general are seeing more "tanking" so to speak. There's value in those early picks and everyone knows it... it's far more valuable than a middling finish. In baseball, that's exacerbated by certain teams with resources to perpetually buy away the best FAs and extend their windows... it really does make it hard for the rest of the league to compete in that scenario. If you don't have a window of opportunity, trade your guys for prospects. It means several powerhouse teams and a whole bunch of crap...

     

    As for the Twins... I don't get how people say that Darvish will allow us to compete for a WC. We got a WC last year and are returning the same team with an improved pen and some SP depth that we haven't had in ages. Darvish is a go for it move that makes it realistic to compete with Cleveland and a possible deep playoff run.

     

    As for the window, yeah, it's open. We need a guy like Darvish. We have about 4 years with this core and not enough sure things in the rotation to keep said Window open.

    To your question about competing for a wild card....

     

    1. Progress is not linear

    2. Other teams have added players

    3. They barely won a spot last year.

     

    Imo, getting Darvish, or Lynn or Cobb are moves to increase the odds significantly, this year and for three or four more. Passing on them all, including Arrieta? Imo, Dozier leaves as soon as he can. And the team does not win a WC spot this year, or probably next without a lot of luck.

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    caninatl04

    caninatl04 522

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    That may be right but are they going to go on another 20ish game win streak again? I'm thinking not, though they could win a game every other day and still accomplish a similar result in the end..but my point is that I don't think the teams will be 18 games apart next year if the Twins improve the rotation.

     

    The Twins and Indians scored the same amount of runs last year but the Indians pitching was obviously way better. The Twins could possibly catch up with an add of Darvish and the improved bullpen. How much we have no idea. The Twins shaved 101 runs off their runs allowed from 2016 to 2017. We know the 2016 team underperformed but to allow 100 fewer runs seems like a big jump (not sure how common it is to make a 100 run jump in a positive way) and was mostly due to defense. They need to shave another 100 to be up there with all the big boys.

     

    The Indians young players could improve too, but I feel like adding Darvish plus the improved bullpen gets us closer than 15 out. Especially when they lost Santana, Jackson (good part time player) and Shaw. Those aren't huge losses but it makes a dent. Though I have zero clue if they lost significant time due to injury for any of their players so that would/could easily make up for the player losses from the offseason. And if our guys slump or don't improve on last year that will hurt too.

     

    There's a number of factors involved but I could definitely see a scenario where the Twins are within 5-7 games of the Indians. They absolutely need to improve the rotation for that to be possible though.

    I think we are in agreement. The Twins could narrow the gap, but I am skeptical they could overtake the Tribe this coming year.

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    alskntwnsfn

    alskntwnsfn 338

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Lots of FAs still out there. Admittedly, I haven't been following things as closely as most winters, but nonetheless here's my late winter FA wish list (in no particular order, if some are done then it doesn't make sense to do others):

     

    Jose Bautista

    Francisco Liriano

    Trade Rosario for pitching and sign JD Martinez

    Jake Petricka (south Metro rep!)

    Michael Saunders

    Tony Watson

    Jason Grilli

    Clay Buchholz

    Jake Arrieta (if the money is right)

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