3 Former Top 5 Twins Prospects Sent to Minor-League Camp

Just 10 days away from Opening Day, the Twins have little time left to reduce their roster to 26 active players. On Sunday, we learned that Jhoan Durán, Caleb Thielbar and Anthony DeSclafani will start the season on the Injured List. Josh Winder is already on the 60-day injured list. So really, they have fewer cuts left to make than it appears, because injured guys won't take up those active places. 

Take a quick look through Twins top prospect lists between 2019 and 2022, and you are likely to find Jordan Balazovic, Trevor Larnach and José Miranda quite high on them. All three of these players have shown up on some global Top-100 rankings in their time. Yet on Sunday, March 17, 2024, all three of them were told that their seasons would begin in Triple-A. 

All three have had highs and lows in their young careers. At times, their prospect lights shone bright. At other times, injuries or on-field (or even off-field) issues kept them from reaching the potential many believe that each possesses. 

Let’s take a look at all three and figure out what they most need to work on not only to get back to the Twins, but also to stick with the team.

Jordan Balazovic 
It’s a strange place to be for a former top prospect. Balazovic burst onto the scene in 2018, when he put together a strong rookie season in the Gulf Coast League and Keith Law pointed him out as a top prospect. The 2016 fifth-round pick from Mississauga, Ontario has had ups and downs in his time with the Twins. In fact, earlier this year, he was designated for assignment to make room for a waiver claim. He cleared waivers and was outrighted to St. Paul, so he’s not on the 40-man roster.

A quick look at the Balazovic profile and it’s impossible not to see why people would be excited. He's 6-foot-5 and lanky. His fastball averaged 95.2 mph. He’s got a sharp mid-to-high-80s slider that can be a strikeout pitch. He also has a low-80s curveball that can be 12-6 or 11-5 in shape, because of his high release point. He also can throw a splitter. It will be interesting to see if or how his pitch mix is updated throughout the season and in his transition full-time to the bullpen. The stuff is there.

What he needs to focus on most: Consistency and command. 

There are times when Balazovic has shown good control and kept the walks down. Other times, he can have extended stretches of poor control. As we all know, too, control is just part of the equation. Command is even more vital. Being able to command the ball within the strike zone is crucial in the big leagues, where hitters just don’t miss mistakes as often. 

José Miranda 
Miranda was the third of four high-school hitters selected in the first 75 picks of the 2016 draft. He had the size and strength to be a top prospect, but he often found himself in the 15-25 range of prospects. We kept hearing about his potential, and it definitely showed up at times with power. However, it always felt like there was a limiting factor. He didn’t strike out much, but he also didn’t walk. In other words, he was a very aggressive hitter who would not only swing at too many pitchers’ pitches, but had tremendous bat control and often put those pitches in play with weak contact.

During the lost 2020 season, Miranda put in a lot of time really working on better understanding the strike zone. He wanted to understand not only what was a strike, but what pitches he could put into play with authority. 

If you look at Miranda’s Contact% in the big leagues, it was 77.5% in 2022 and 77.3% in 2023. That’s negligible. But digging into the details, we see something that might be a factor. In 2022, when swinging outside the zone, he made contact on 63.8% of swings. In 2023, that number bumped up to 66.9%--not a huge jump, but noticeable. On the other side, on pitches inside the strike zone, he made contact 88.2% of the time in 2022 and that number dropped to 85.8% in 2023.

These aren’t huge changes on their own. However, it can be noted that he made contact more often with pitches outside the zone, likely resulting in weaker contact. At the same time, more swing-and-miss on pitches in the zone. Again, that combined 5.5% doesn’t seem like a huge deal. But sometimes that turns a 2-1 count into a 1-2 count, or a 3-1 count (hitter’s advantage) into a 2-2 count (pitcher’s advantage).

So as I’ve said throughout spring training, with Miranda it isn’t so much about the stat line for me. It’s all about plate discipline. When he improved his ability to lay off tough pitches, as he did in 2021 and 2022, he mashed. He hit for average and power. In 2023, when he swung at more pitches outside the zone, the numbers just weren’t there. So, I will be watching how his strike zone judgment improves in 2024. 

What he needs to focus on most: Controlling the zone. 

To be fair, Miranda spent the 2023 season fighting a shoulder injury. It cost him time in spring training, and during the season, and then late in the season he had surgery. This spring, he really only acted as a designated hitter and played some first base. Hopefully, the shoulder continues to improve and he can get back to third base as well. 

Trevor Larnach
The Twins' first-round pick out of Oregon State in 2018, Larnach is still struggling to establish himself. While he didn’t play during the COVID-marred 2020 season, he did spend that year at CHS Field. Despite the lost season, he was called up quickly in 2021. Each year when he has been called up, he has done very well. He has shown immense power and offensive ability. At his best, he has a great swing that hits line drives to the opposite field. There was some concern about his ability to turn on pitches with authority, but a look back at some of his home runs in Triple-A and the big leagues shows that he’s got plenty of power to the pull side. 

You hear it talked about often: Larnach’s struggles have come from an inability to hit breaking balls or changeups. There’s no denying that. There has been a lot written on these pages about that, which you can find here. 

His Barrel rate has increased in each of his three seasons. His Hard Hit rate has increased each season, from 33.5% in 2021 to 46.0% in 2023. His average exit velocities have been either 90.0 mph or 90.1 mph during those three years, and his maximum exit velocity is a robust 112.0. 

Two things jump out to me, though. His Launch Angle was 13.1 degrees his first two MLB seasons. In 2023, it jumped to 17.5 degrees. In addition, his fly-ball rate jumped from 39.0% in 2022 to 47.8% in 2023. 

Don’t get me wrong. Launch angle is good. Obviously, avoiding ground balls is a good thing. However, there is also a limit to productive launch angles. Lazy fly balls and pop-ups are just as easily turned into outs as grounders. But has it been preached into his mind so much that hitting the ball in the air and pulling the ball and hitting homers are what he needs to do, has it messed up what makes him a great natural hitter? In an ideal world, I’d love to watch Larnach with a season full of line drives to left or left-center. Every once in a while, turn on a pitch, but go back to hitting the ball hard somewhere on a line.  

What he needs to focus on most: Hit the ball where it’s pitched.

Get back to some basics, the things that made him a first-round pick. Keep it simple. Don’t overthink it. See ball in zone, hit ball. Larnach is a big, strong dude. He’s going to hit a lot of homers one year soon.

"Back to the basics" is a good theme for any pitcher or hitter to remember. For pitchers, mix up your pitches, throw strikes and really work on command inside the zone. For hitting, know the strike zone. Try not to expand the zone. Hit it hard where it is pitched. 

This is a big season for all three of these former top prospects. Larnach turned 27 last month. Miranda and Balazovic will turn 26 during the season. Larnach has been passed up, at least for now, by Matt Wallner. However, Wallner has struggled this spring, and Max Kepler is likely gone into free agency a year from now. Miranda knows that Royce Lewis is going to get the majority of time at third base. Edouard Julien has taken over at second base, and Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are getting close. Alex Kirilloff hasn’t taken hold of a position, first base or DH yet, and Carlos Santana is on a one-year deal. Playing time can be had. And with how liberally the Twins use their 40-man roster in the bullpen, Balazovic could get more chances. 

The Twins' spring roster now stands at 41 players. Nine of them are non-roster guys. Twenty-one pitchers are still in camp (three of them non-roster invitees). There are still four catchers (two non-roster). There are eight infielders; just one is a non-roster player. There are five outfielders, all on the 40-man roster. Two utility players remain. 

Non-Roster players remaining include right-handed pitchers Matt Bowman, Jeff Brigham, and Daniel Duarte. Brian O’Keefe and Chris Williams are the two non-roster catchers. The versatile Niko Goodrum, Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, and Brooks Lee remain in big-league camp as well.