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The Twins finally made an offseason splash on Monday night, when they sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for a four-player package. In doing so, the team gained enough financial flexibility to focus on what is left of the free agent market. Jorge Soler is one intriguing name remaining on the market who could fit in well with the Twins.
According to Do-Hyoung Park at MLB.com, Derek Falvey indicated following the trade that the team will now turn its attention to the position player side of the roster. In the article, Park also mentions that Falvey admitted adding outfield depth flexibility is high on the list of priorities. Soler checks most of the boxes the Twins desire.
Coming off a monster 2023 season, Soler declined his option with the Marlins and tested the free-agent market. Soler’s projected contract, per The Athletic, was three years and $45 million, which comes out to $15 million annually. Following the Polanco trade, this contract isn’t too far out of the Twins' spending range, and there are rumors that a “mystery team” has entered the Soler market. Does Soler fit with the Twins, and could they create enough financial flexibility to pursue a deal?
Losing Polanco leaves a minor hole in the Twins lineup. If Byron Buxton plans on playing center field (as he says he does), the Twins need a guy to slot in as the primary DH. Signing Soler would help solve many minor problems with their outfield depth. On a day where the Twins are facing a right-handed pitcher with Buxton playing center field, Soler would DH. When Buxton needs a day off or moves to DH, Soler could play a corner spot, and Max Kepler or Willi Castro could play center field. As Lou Hennessy wrote earlier this month, Soler mashes left-handed pitching, so on days when the team faces a lefty, he could take over corner duties for Matt Wallner. This type of flexibility and platoon possibilities fit the Twins' preferred roster construction.
As mentioned before, Soler had a great 2023 season. Among the best parts about Soler’s game is his ability to provide elite power and on-base percentage to a lineup, without a sky-high strikeout rate. While his 24.3% strikeout rate was still in the bottom third of the league, his 11.4% walk rate and 36 home runs were more than enough to make up for the whiffs. For comparison’s sake, Joey Gallo had a 42.8% strikeout rate with a 14.5% walk rate in 2023. Adding a guy who can supply the power and on-base skills the Twins covet without adding a high strikeout percentage would be a significant upgrade to a team that set the major-league record for strikeouts in 2023.
On top of his excellent on-base skills, Soler also fits the Twins' preferred batting profile. In 2023, Twins hitters were 4th in the league in average launch angle, at 14 degrees. With an average launch angle of 17.7 degrees in 2023, Soler fits this philosophical mold. The Twins tend to look for guys who can pull the ball in the air, and Soler also checks this box.
While Soler appears to be a great fit, the Twins still have to find a way to make it work. According to our best info, the Twins have about $11 million available in the budget that they’re willing to spend, as they are expected to lower the payroll from previous years. As mentioned, Soler could cost around $15 million per season, though it might be too late in the offseason for him to get any more than that or to find that third or fourth year he's been seeking. The Twins will either have to shed more payroll or get creative with the potential contract to get a deal done.
The first option is to move more money to make room for Soler. The most obvious way to do this is to find a suitable trade partner for Kyle Farmer. While Farmer does provide a fine platoon option in the infield, it may not be enough to justify paying him $6.5 million. Farmer’s market (pun intended) may be thin, but the primary purpose of moving him would be to dump his contract. If they were to find a team who need an infielder and has a bit more certainty about their TV deal for this season, they should be able to trade him. Doing this would clear up more than enough space to sign Soler. In Farmer’s absence, the Twins could turn to the switch-hitting Castro or Yunior Severino as potential platoon options at second base, or speed the promotion of Brooks Lee.
Another way to make a deal work is to backload a potential contract. If they are cutting the payroll due to potential losses in TV money, they could still sign Soler to a three-year, $45-million contract, but instead of paying $15 million every year, they could structure the deal to pay less now, more later. For example, the Twins could give Soler $11 million in 2024, $15 million in 2025, and $19 million in 2026. If the team plans to increase the budget again once the TV mess is settled, this could be a possible solution. Again, since it's now February, maybe the third year isn't even needed. Perhaps $17 million in 2025 (with an opt-out) would be enough.
It’s hard not to consider Jorge Soler a really nice fit for the Twins. Though his defense is subpar, he would provide enough defensive flexibility while adding a big bat to a deep lineup. Even if the TV situation doesn’t get resolved and the Twins decide to cut down on spending, there are ways they can get something done. A move like this would earn the Twins another offseason gold star and deliver a noticeable improvement from the 2023 roster.
Should the Twins pursue Jorge Soler? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!
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