Diamondbacks 6, Twins 4: James McCann Can't Stand Possibility of Bailey Ober's ERA Falling Below 5.00

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 9 K (101 Pitches, 71 Strikes)
Home Runs: Matt Wallner (22), Mickey Gasper (2)
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.201), Carson McCusker (-.159), Matt Wallner (-.148)
Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs):

It's roster evaluation season in Minnesota! (Also yard waste collection season. Coincidence?) The Twins welcomed the Arizona Diamondbacks to Target Field, and after a fairly exciting first two games, they had a chance to take a series against a team fighting for a playoff spot.

Bailey Ober made the start and carried over some of the swing-and-miss success from his last outing against Kansas City, striking out nine over six solid innings. His velocity once again peaked at 91 MPH, and outside of James McCann, who destroyed the Twins in a similar point of the year in 2024, he kept the desert denizens thirsty.

The Diamondbacks have some excellent hitters, but it was the backup catcher, McCann, who singled in the game's first run in the second, and delivered a two-out, three-run homer in the fourth to give Arizona the lead. Hopefully, the Twins front office doesn't get enamored with that dominance and sign McCann on for significant at-bats in 2026. There are worse catchers out there, but Ryan Jeffers deserves to put up numbers in his walk year. (Of course, if Jeffers is traded, that calculus may change. And heck, they need a backup for him, either way.) Outside of McCann, Ober had six scoreless innings and two hits allowed. We're researching the feasibility of a rule change to disallow one hitter in the opposing lineup each day; we'll update you ASAP.

The early offense from the Twins was mostly thanks to Arizona prospect Jordan Lawlar, long considered a can't-miss guy who has mostly missed over parts of three seasons. In the second, Royce Lewis delivered a one-out single, and with two outs and Lewis on second after a steal, Mickey Gasper grounded to Lawlar, who was (perhaps) screened by Lewis and booted the ball. After Edouard Julien laced a single to left that scored Lewis, Byron Buxton chopped a ball to Lawlar, who had to rush the throw and committed a throwing error, allowing the second run to score.

Gasper hit a homer, and the rest of the lineup kept the pressure on, but the bullpen couldn't give them any margin for error, as they allowed runs in the seventh and eighth innings. The Twins had a chance in their half of the eighth, with Carson McCusker pinch-hitting against a lefty with the bases loaded, but he would ground out to end the threat.

They loaded the bases in the ninth, as well, but Wallner flied out to end it.

Since it's all made up and the games don't matter, here are some other things I'm tracking:

Buxton's pursuit of 30/30, or 25/25, or just having a nice, healthy year:
Buxton was in swing mode, making an out on the first pitch in the first, and chopping a reached-on-error on the first pitch in the second. He fought a bit more in the fifth, but ended up striking out on a changeup from starter Nabil Crismatt. I wonder where his mind is at, knowing the team is going nowhere and may purposely get worse over the offseason. He has figured out a way to stay healthy-ish, and I wonder if he is doing himself a disservice with admirable levels of loyalty to an organization that deserves no loyalty whatsoever. I just feel like if he played for the Phillies, he could have some great October moments. It is such a shame that he has played on four playoff teams and been healthy for half of one game during the playoffs—injuring himself on a catch at wall in 2017, then being hurt for 2019, producing one of the most depressing playoff moments in Twins history in 2020 as he tried to play through a concussion, and then pinch-hitting on one leg in the elimination game against the Astros in 2023.

Brooks Lee providing any optimism for his future:
There have been plenty of instances of guys who come into the league and take a while to adjust on both sides of the ball, before settling in as a two- to three-WAR player. Lee has popped 14 homers, provided some clutch moments, and kept his head above water at shortstop. But that has come with bad numbers as far as defensive metrics, a sub-.300 OBP, and a somewhat sleepy disposition. Having said that, he has struggled initially at all minor-league levels, and it wouldn't surprise me if he started hot in 2026 and rides that into a .275/.330/.450 season with average defense. Would some sort of mechanical or mental adjustment make that sustainable?

Or is his real skill level something like .250/.300/.380, with below-average but acceptable-looking defense? I don't think that plays on a winning team. But hey, we may not see a winning team for a year or two, anyway.

Today, Lee had a weak ground out, a weak pop out and a strikeout, while making every play at shortstop.

What is Matt Wallner?
I was initially very skeptical about Wallner as certain media members frothed at the mouth about him taking the place of the incumbent right fielder in 2023. Said incumbent was one of the team's MVPs down the stretch, but Wallner surprised me with his ability to make some adjustments, bouncing back from brief slumps to post great rate stats down the stretch.

He's been up and down since, but I still think Wallner can be a good hitter in the right situation. He just needs to learn how to Anthony Rizzo his way into messing with pitchers' plans against him. If he can find a way to get fooled and still flip a single the other way when behind in the count, he can develop into a real problem for pitchers—instead of a puzzle with an easy solution (fastball up, offspeed for chase). He has put up a fight against lefties, though, with a .794 OPS, including a battle in the last at-bat of the game.

As it stands, the Twins are suddenly flush with high-upside Triple-A outfielders, with Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez all nearly ready for their shot. Wallner is still minimum-salaried for now, but he's set to turn 28 in December (right when Joey Gallo began his sharp decline). If the Twins aren't convinced he can be a reliable regular, they should trade him while his value still exists.

He delivered a big home run today, cutting the deficit to 4-3 in the sixth inning with a 421-foot blast.

What is Royce Lewis?
Lewis took good at-bats today, delivering a rally-starting single, and has quietly been an above-average player in the second half, with a .764 OPS including 10 home runs and a .464 SLG. That's fine. If he can be a poor man's Matt Chapman, he'll have a long career. It just seemed, for a while, like he could be a Ryan Braun-caliber slugger who was able to stick at third. Now there seems to be some risk that he's a Ryan Braun-caliber personality who slugs like a shorstop.

How good can Luke Keaschall be?
Keaschall has done a little of everything. His fielding still leaves plenty to be desired, but he's hitting .310 with speed and a little power. I wonder if he thrives on adrenaline like Lewis, and once the shine wears off and he settles into the grind, he's more of a .270/.340/.420 type hitter. He has a sub-700 OPS for September after going 1-3 today, although he did steal a base, his 13th.

What will the bullpen look like in 2026?
The bullpen hasn't looked great since they traded five really good relievers at the trade deadline. Cole Sands has been pretty good, outside of a recent blowup, and Kody Funderburk has settled into a maybe-okay sixth-inning guy. The walk and strikeout numbers ain't pretty, though. I wonder if Mick Abel is being groomed as a potential option, given his high-octane stuff and struggles with control. Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya also are options at Triple A, but Raya has been pretty bad as a starter and Prielipp has had so many health issues since high school that it's hard to project him for anything. Perhaps Michael Fulmer is available on a minor-league deal?

Today, handed a 4-3 deficit, Génesis Cabrera (probably the highest-upside of the waiver claims the Twins have shuttled into their bullpen) looked pretty bad again, allowing a run and not getting through his inning before Michael Tonkin came on in relief. Cabrera has a great name, and his stuff looks kinda nasty, but matching 17.4% strikeout and walk percentages are about as brutal as it gets.

Tonkin stayed on and loaded the bases with no outs in the eighth, before settling down and allowing just one run. Thomas Hatch pitched the ninth, and didn't look great, falling behind hitters and allowing two hard hits, although his inning was scoreless.

Also, check out the season Geraldo Perdomo is having for Arizona: 19 homers, a 132 OPS+, great shortstop defense, and 26 steals in 32 attempts (Hatch did pick him off). He also has an 11.2% strikeout percentage, and walks 13.2% of the time. He's in 2009 Ben Zobrist territory for under-the-radar great seasons. He also leads the NL with 6.3 bWAR. Imagine this team without its entire bullpen getting hurt!

What’s Next: The Twins welcome the Yankees to Target Field Monday, as Simeon Woods Richardson (6-4, 4.58 ERA), takes on Carlos Rodón (16-8, 3.11 ERA). New York has been better lately, as they fight for playoff positioning. They have an outside shot at the division, 3.5 games back of Toronto. Rodón was hurt, bad and pouted during his first year in the Bronx, but has been pretty good since, and has owned the Twins since becoming a Yankee. Woods Richardson is looking to finish the year strong, as he auditions for a spot in the 2026 rotation.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: