Comparing AL Central Rosters: Part 1 (Infielders)

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I think we all know the reason this is a borderline playoff team is only because the AL Central is the worst division in baseball so a mediocre team (or 3!) is able to sneak in. 

Vegas has the line at 83.5 wins. I'd bet the under if I were a betting man. Easy money. 

why is this the worst division in baseball? Sure looks like the AL West to me. Oakland still stinks, the Angels horribly run and a mess, Texas is counting on a bunch of ancient pitchers and has real lineup problems, and who exactly fears Seattle? heck, even Houston ain't what they used to be. yes, CWS are awful, almost certainly the worst team in baseball again, but otherwise the AL Central looks much more competitive than the AL West.

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm a little baffled by the push for Eeles I keep seeing on this board. is it just because he's so new to the organization that he hasn't had much chance to struggle yet? is it because he's short and doesn't fit a mold? is it because he doesn't strike out all that much?

I mean, people are ready to throw Ed Julien (who put up 2.6 bWAR as a rookie with a 130 OPS+) out with the trash after last season and seem to want the Twins to hand 2B to Payton Eeles who has 156 games as a professional, with nearly 1/3 in the Independent leagues. he's a great story, potentially a great find, and if he were the starting 2B for the Twins today you'd have to put their 2B 5th in the AL Central, because betting on a player to go from the Independent leagues to starting MLB 2B is pretty wild.

 

I'm likely on the short side of folks who still believe that Julien can turn his career around, hopefully this year. The reason I wrote "hoping for Eeles or Keaschall is because I don't see either of Lee or Lewis playing a good second base. I could be very wrong there. We have no idea how Eeles would do or even if he gets an opportunity. A combination of decent glove, some speed, and a guy who does not strike out would help the team. I'm not predicting the outcome but hoping for a positive push from below. The Twins who played second base last year were less than stellar.

5 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

why is this the worst division in baseball?

Just comparing it to the AL West, it's pretty clear the AL West has the best team, and the AL Central has the worst team. We can debate about the nuanced rankings of those other 8 teams, but those two facts are pretty solidified. I'd probably argue the AL West has the two best teams of the 10. 

Last season, the AL Central was better, and did beat them in the season series 87 - 72. But I'm more so discussing 2025. The AL Central, collectively, was very healthy and didn't lose much to unexpected injury, whereas the AL West was significantly less lucky. The AL Central "lost" 29.3 WAR to injury compared the AL Wests 44.1 and as has been discussed, the AL West teams are actually working to improve where the AL Central are almost all standing pat. 

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm likely on the short side of folks who still believe that Julien can turn his career around, hopefully this year. The reason I wrote "hoping for Eeles or Keaschall is because I don't see either of Lee or Lewis playing a good second base. I could be very wrong there. We have no idea how Eeles would do or even if he gets an opportunity. A combination of decent glove, some speed, and a guy who does not strike out would help the team. I'm not predicting the outcome but hoping for a positive push from below. The Twins who played second base last year were less than stellar.

We'll see on Julien. He had a bad enough season in 2024 that it's more than fair to be skeptical...but was also good enough in 2023 that it's a little crazy to consign him to the dust heap already.

Hard to know whether or not Lewis will be a good fit at 2B, but he does have the glove to be good there, and it might suit his arm better. But Brooks Lee has looked just fine defensively at either 2B or 3B (he was a more than acceptable backup to Correa at SS too) and his MiLB history shows a player who makes good contact, gets on base, and has some pop in his bat. It's a small sample, but he out-hit Eeles in AAA last season. If he's healthy, I expect him to hit and defend at whatever infield spot the Twins land him on.

I like Keaschall a lot, but expecting a player coming off a significant injury who has never played above AA to be ready for MLB is...optimistic. he didn't exactly play much 2B last season and was limited in the field because of the elbow injury. I would suggest he's not a better defender at 2B than Lee at this point, but we'll see how he does once he's healthy and can throw again.

This is what is so interesting about this team. Every single one of these guys (including Correa if you count his IL stint due to another foot flareup) dramatically under performed compared to their potential. If all of them have a good year, and one of them ... say ... Lewis has an MVP caliber year, then this team should make a playoff push despite the lack of spending by the old guard. Of course, it is also possible that they will have a collective .200 batting average as well. 

Borgschulte for MVP!

Thanks Seth !  This was a very interesting read and already there are a number of good comments.

C:  Clearly Sal Perez and Fermin are #1.  Although a healthy Pasquantino may allow Perez more time at catcher, I would think the Royals would want to limit his catching innings where they could.  Fermin was very good in a limited sample size last year.  The Twins are O.K. here, maybe even #2.  But as with every position in the infield for the Twins, who will actually be playing at each position.  I'm not sure we will have Jeffers/Vasquez to begin the season or for a full season.

1B:  Santana is about to fall off a cliff.  He will come nowhere near a 3.0 WAR in 2025.  I'm not as high on Julien recovering to become a better hitter "yet."  He was SO LOST at the plate last season.  I also think his days at 2B are numbered in the Twins organization.  Just too many guys have moved past him. I am confident Miranda can do a decent job. To me KC is clearly the strongest at 1B with a combo of Perez and Pasquantino.  Colt Keith intrigues me for the Tigers.  I would rank 1B:  KC, Tigers, Twins, Cleveland and CWS.  (Who knows...even with Colt Keith playing most of the innings at 1B could Torkelson finally start hitting somewhere near his potential for the Tigers)??

2B:  Again, this is very hard to get a feel for where the Twins could end up.  Lewis, Lee, Eeles and Keachall (as well as Castro) could all play 2B.  There's a reasonably good expectation that the Twins will have some pretty solid offense there.  Cleveland's 1B and 2B losses cannot be underestimated and the idea that Polanco will be an answer for them is laughable.  Cleveland is hurting there.  KC really upgraded with India (but lost a solid and fairly young SP in Singer to get him) and Gleybor will be decent in Detroit.  I'd go:  KC, Twins, Det, Cleve, CWS.

3B:  It's Jose Ramirez in a runaway.  Who will be the Twins 3B?  Lewis can compete reasonably well with Ramirez minus the SB's, if he can stay healthy.  But Lewis ANYWHERE in the IF, whether it be 3B, 2B or 1B with 30 HR's and 100 RBI is tremendous.  The Wild Card is Bregman.  Does he sign with the Tigers or the Red Sox??  For the sake of this comparison let's take the worst case scenario and put him with the Tigers.   Cleveland, Tigers, Twins, Royals, White Sox.

SS:  The best player in the American League is Bobby Witt Jr. and he should only get better.  Correa is the clear #2.  I'll go Cleveland, Tigers and White Sox after the top two. 

When it's time for me to chime in on the OF it should be a lot easier to figure out where the Twins stand because there are nowhere near the mysteries of the infield.  It will be fascinating to see how the Twins shake out their IF.  With the exception of SS none of us can say with any certainty who will be the primary 3B, 2B and 1B. 

I like that Royce Lewis is going away from the bulked up body and is endeavoring to become slimmer and more flexible.  He'll still be a power hitter but maybe he can stay healthier and might even be able to use his once top shelf speed to steal a few bases.  Lewis is the KEY to how the IF shakes out.  I'd play him where ever I could maximize his health so as to make sure I had his impact bat in the lineup.

If that means 1B, so be it.  Let Brooks Lee play 3B and Castro 2B until Eeles or Keaschall kick down the door and claim the position.  Miranda can be the primary DH, which wouldn't be all that bad if it helps him stay healthier and leads to a more productive season at the plate.  

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm a little baffled by the push for Eeles I keep seeing on this board. is it just because he's so new to the organization that he hasn't had much chance to struggle yet? is it because he's short and doesn't fit a mold? is it because he doesn't strike out all that much?

 

I believe it is because Nick Gordon is gone and all the hype going into his 2023 season. People love to cheer winning the lottery.

On 1/14/2025 at 11:59 AM, Seth Stohs said:

Canha and Turner would be fine, but they're not coming here. 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Eventually the musical chairs will stop and someone will be left without a roster spot.