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    The Best Case Scenario for Byron Buxton

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    It's easy to feel gloomy and doomy about Byron Buxton's future, given all we've seen him go through this year. But, as we've learned in the past, even the most mysterious and long-lingering injuries are not necessarily permanent.

    Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

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    It is very possible that Byron Buxton's knee is chronically and/or structurally compromised, in which case this year will only serve as a harbinger of things to come. Maybe he never bounces back from this and his body ends up forcing him to retire at any early age. Could happen.

    But frankly, I've been hearing way too many Twins fans treat that as a casual assumption, forgetting the fact that Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again in the past, and isn't yet 30. I find it annoying.

    There's just not a lot of value in hand-wringing over the scenario where Buxton's days as a productive player are over -- even if you see it as probable. 

    We don't need to sugarcoat the fact that things looked bleak this year: his surgically repaired knee never seemed right, forced him into (ineffectual) designated hitter duty in the first half, and shut him down after early August. When Buxton limped out up to the plate for a fruitless pinch-hitting appearance late in Wednesday's elimination game, it was simultaneously a cool and sad moment.

    A sign of the end for this broken-down superstar? Not necessarily.

    Leading up the postseason, as Buxton pushed himself to become viable for the ALWC roster, he spoke with La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. One thing that struck me about Buck's quotes in the article was how he seemingly attributed much of his difficulty in 2023 to the arthroscopic knee surgery he'd undergone the previous offseason.

    "I was still coming off surgery," Buxton said. "I had never played a year following knee surgery. I was still trying to figure this out, all year."

    Neal's article also included this tidbit:

    Quote

     

    One encouraging sign for the future is that Twins trainer Nick Paparesta noted recently the surgically repaired part of Buxton's knee continues to improve. And there's no indication the injury could be a problem next year or beyond.

    "Not that I know of," Buxton said. "I just didn't know how I was going to be coming off of surgery."

     

    Probably (okay definitely) an optimistic spin from La Velle there, but the underlying point is a valid one: sometimes it takes a while for the body to bounce back from surgery, even a supposedly "minor" one.

    Just ask Joe Mauer.

    After injuring his knee late in the 2010 season, Mauer underwent arthroscopic surgery during the offseason. The following season was a disaster, for both the team and Mauer specifically. He posted career-worst numbers and missed two months while taking fire from fans who were befuddled by the team's "bilateral leg weakness" diagnosis.

    He was 28 (one year younger than Buxton is now) and the vagueness of his health situation left many wondering what Mauer's future would look like.

    Later on, as things came into focus, it became clear that the catcher simply struggled physically to rebound from knee surgery and probably pushed himself back too soon.

    And here's the upshot: in 2012, once Mauer had another offseason to recover and distance himself from the knee surgery, he was pretty much back to his regular self. He played 147 games, made the All-Star team, and led the league in OBP. The surgery worked, it just took a little longer than some would've liked.

    Mauer was in the same form in 2013 up until another unrelated injury came along and DID permanently alter the course of his career. That sort of thing will be an ongoing concern for Buxton even if he can get past the knee issues. 

    But the point is that his injury-wrecked 2023 campaign does not indicate that Buxton's knee is shot. The body works in unpredictable ways and there's no telling what another offseason building back (without pushing recklessly toward a return to the field) could do for the formerly elite slugger, still owed $75 million and heavily incentivized to add onto that number by returning to MVP form

     

    I'm hanging onto that hope as we head into this offseason, while acknowledging that the Twins front office absolutely needs to prepare themselves with strong contingencies in center field, as they did this year.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    D.C Twins

    D.C Twins 4,814

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Well Nick... good to see that you have made it to somewhere between the denial and bargaining phase. 

    No shame in that.  

    Those of us in that have reached the acceptance phase will have a nice cold brew waiting for you when you arrive! 

    D.C Twins

    D.C Twins 4,814

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    LENIII literally makes his living relaying talking points of the Twins FO... so whatever comes from him is fairly inconsequential. 

    Arthroscopic Knee procedures should take weeks to a few months and not many months to years to recover from.... if they could actually fix the problem,... which for Buck and his degenerative knee condition... they cannot.

    Also, if the Buck and his agent really thought his chronic knee issues were only to flares of patellar tendonitis... they would not have agreed to a 100 million dollar contract (they would have demanded double at least). Buck, his agent, and the Twins agreed to this 'deal' because there were real concerns based on the existing medicals (which again... would not be just patellar tendonitis)

    Love Buck.....Feel bad for Buck (though 100 mil should buffer the frustration a bit)... but the FO best not be making plans based on Buck in CF full time next year. 

    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 12,432

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    30 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

    I initially thought that his knee was degenerative also but if you noticed Do-Hyoung Park's tweet in this thread he says that they will excise the pilca in his right knee which apparently was impacting the patellar tendon and causing it to become inflamed and causing pain.  I read a few other threads suggesting that if they remove some or most of this pilca, then it could relieve the pain.  Therefore, saying that they cannot fix the knee seems to be inaccurate given this recent information.

    I would argue it’s not inaccurate, it’s incomplete. We don’t know if they can’t fix it, but they haven’t so far after several tries.

    sun

    sun 292

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

    LENIII literally makes his living relaying talking points of the Twins FO... so whatever comes from him is fairly inconsequential. 

    Arthroscopic Knee procedures should take weeks to a few months and not many months to years to recover from.... if they could actually fix the problem,... which for Buck and his degenerative knee condition... they cannot.

    Also, if the Buck and his agent really thought his chronic knee issues were only to flares of patellar tendonitis... they would not have agreed to a 100 million dollar contract (they would have demanded double at least). Buck, his agent, and the Twins agreed to this 'deal' because there were real concerns based on the existing medicals (which again... would not be just patellar tendonitis)

    Love Buck.....Feel bad for Buck (though 100 mil should buffer the frustration a bit)... but the FO best not be making plans based on Buck in CF full time next year. 

    I don't believe you & I don't believe that the Twins would have signed Buck if he had a degenerative knee condition.  Not at his age & not a degenerative condition that would end his career. They have doctors too & woudn't throw money away.  Like Judge Judy would always say, if it doesn't make sense then it must not be true. 

    I watched him slide into 2nd base when he popped his knee. It was an unfortunate injury. Not some crazy conspiracy theory that he was somehow in cohoots with his agent. It sounds like fake news & disinformation. Rehab takes time & there aren't any shortcuts. Time will tell what Buck's future holds.

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,260

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    There's a lot to unpack here. But to begin with, Buxton has 3 outcomes:

    1] The removal of the place flap takes away all/most of the irritation/swelling/pain and just remove any further hip issues that have flared up previously as he was probably compensating when he ran. And he can return to CF on a daily basis for when he is healthy, and as long as he is healthy.

    2] The procedure helps, but the knee is just bad enough from wear and tear that it only does so much. As a result, he's only good for playing CF on a part time basis...60-80 games tops...and DH another 40 plus games.

    3] Despite hope and optimism, his knee is just BAD and his days in CF are pretty much done because he just can't run any longer and the best case scenario is keeping his knee healthy enough to just have a good base to hit and run the bases. And that's it.

    Now, I am going to continue to hold out hope for #1, but expect #2, and am not entirely opposed to #3.

    Personally, I prefer my team to NOT have a primary DH. I want the roster depth and flexibility to roll through that spot. It's different if you have an Ortiz or Cruz for that spot. But let's hit the pause button for a second on Buxton as a primary DH. (And I know I'm repeating things I've stated elsewhere before).

    Not necessarily daily, but primary. Not everyone can adapt mentally or physically to being a DH. IF Buxton's knee simply doesn't respond and he just can't play CF any longer, what if it's strong enough, stable enough, to hit? IF he can make the mental and physical adjustment, gain advice from others who have done it before him, he's got the potential to be dangerous doing it. From 2019 through 2022...with a short year mixed in there...Buck had his best offensive stretch and had an OPS of .877. While beloved Nelson Cruz had 2 of his best seasons wearing a Twins uniform, his career OPS was .856. Now, I'm not saying I want Buxton to be a DH only. And I'm not comparing his best 4yrs to Cruz's career, but I think you can see opportunity for him to POTENTIALLY make the adaptation and BE that dangerous hitter only player.

    It would be a damn shame for him to never patrol CF again, even on a part time basis. The guy has as much pure talent as I've ever seen, matching guys like Griffey Jr. and Davis and others. I'm only saying, there is a window, an opportunity, where if his knee just never comes back well enough to play in the field, he's got a chance to adapt and become a dangerous bat only player.

    I think it's just something to be considered.

    Here's hoping he's going to respond well enough to at least share CF. But the Twins simply have to build for 2024 with the idea that he's a "fall back" CF option. I honestly think Taylor being re-signed makes a ton of sense. While it's hard to expect him to duplicate his 2023, he just might come close. Maybe he steals a few more bases and the HR totals drop some. No way to predict. But I also don't know that they want to trust someone as young as Martin, who might need a little more time.

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,946

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    There is a consensus that hopes Buxton will return to playing baseball. There are differences to what extent. 

    I do not know what is going on with all of his various ailments and I have empathy that Buck can only sit and watch.

    There is always the idea that Buxton has reached a point where highly competitive athletic activity endangers his future mobility and normal every day life. Perhaps Buxton has played his last game. I hope not but the lengthy periods of time where he is disabled does not square with my own multiple knee surgeries or the experiences of many others whom I have known. I'm referring to injuries and rehabs related only to competitive sports for some context.

    The bottom line for me is that I have no idea what injury  Byron Buxton has and the many explanations do not connect with those many I have known that were labeled similarly to Buxton's injuries. 

    Just good luck Byron.

    jmlease1

    jmlease1 15,282

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I really don't get the people who are definitively stating that the Twins have to move on from Buxton.

    I assume they're saying it because they think he's damaged goods and will never play a full season or close to it again. So...just exactly how are they supposed to move on from his guaranteed contract? Do you really expect them to just eat $15M a year for the next however many seasons?

    If you're arguing they're supposed to trade him...until he shows he's healthy, other teams probably aren't interested in his contract, so not only are you not getting anything in return right now, in fact you're probably having to take money back or pay off some it ongoing. Alternatively, if there's a real trade market, then other teams (who would have to have him do a medical to complete a deal) would have to think he's going to be able to play.

    This isn't fantasy baseball. "Just move on from this guy" doesn't really work when you have someone signed to a substantial long-term deal.

    But again, with the people pushing this narrative there is this whiff of contempt for Buxton's injuries coming off the comments, as if he's morally culpable for getting hurt that I find very strange and more than a little toxic.

    D.C Twins

    D.C Twins 4,814

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    16 hours ago, sun said:

    I don't believe you & I don't believe that the Twins would have signed Buck if he had a degenerative knee condition.  Not at his age & not a degenerative condition that would end his career. They have doctors too & woudn't throw money away.  Like Judge Judy would always say, if it doesn't make sense then it must not be true. 

    I watched him slide into 2nd base when he popped his knee. It was an unfortunate injury. Not some crazy conspiracy theory that he was somehow in cohoots with his agent. It sounds like fake news & disinformation. Rehab takes time & there aren't any shortcuts. Time will tell what Buck's future holds.

    If there were not chronic medical concerns, it would have been malpractice for Buck's agent to allow him to sign a 100 mil contract. 

    Not conspiracy, but facts.

    Buck without chronic medical concerns goes right to the open market and makes waaaaaay more than 100 mil over 7 years.

    Tendonitis is NOT a chronic medical concern... sorry.  

    D.C Twins

    D.C Twins 4,814

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    I really don't get the people who are definitively stating that the Twins have to move on from Buxton.

    I assume they're saying it because they think he's damaged goods and will never play a full season or close to it again. So...just exactly how are they supposed to move on from his guaranteed contract? Do you really expect them to just eat $15M a year for the next however many seasons?

    If you're arguing they're supposed to trade him...until he shows he's healthy, other teams probably aren't interested in his contract, so not only are you not getting anything in return right now, in fact you're probably having to take money back or pay off some it ongoing. Alternatively, if there's a real trade market, then other teams (who would have to have him do a medical to complete a deal) would have to think he's going to be able to play.

    This isn't fantasy baseball. "Just move on from this guy" doesn't really work when you have someone signed to a substantial long-term deal.

    But again, with the people pushing this narrative there is this whiff of contempt for Buxton's injuries coming off the comments, as if he's morally culpable for getting hurt that I find very strange and more than a little toxic.

    Hope for the best and expect the worst.

    LOVE Buck. Wish the absolute best for Buck

    But the FO simply cannot make plans based on the hope that Buck returns to CF, or as a DH only for that matter.

    Hope is not a plan.



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