Arcia, Vargas and Rebellion

tobi0040 · August 18, 2014

Just a little perspective on Arcia, who has a career .730 OPS at ages 22-23:

First full year OPS Career OPS Age of first year

Torii Hunter .689 .799 23

Carlos Gomez .657 .730 (.840 last 2 years) 22

David Ortiz .817 .925 22

Joe Mauer .783 .863 22

If you add roughly 100 points to Arcia's .730 OPS you have a very nice player. You will probably see years in the .900 range in career years

To hear that Arcia's numbers are "not good at all" and that "he is a very, very ordinary player right now" begs the question, what would good numbers be for a corner OF that is 22/23?

Edited August 18, 2014 by tobi0040

tobi0040 · August 18, 2014

But, aside from PED Ortiz' accusation from a decade ago (which didn't actually fit the facts), is there any evidence that the Twins have a "cookie cutter approach"?

I may be wrong here, but I believe both Gomez and Ortiz made comments suggesting the Twins tried to change their approach. It appears, based on Arcia's comments that he has heard the same thing, enough so that he went out of his way to warn another young player.

jokin · August 18, 2014

Just a little perspective on Arcia, who has a career .730 OPS at ages 22-23:

                           First full year OPS          Career OPS                        Age of first year
Torii Hunter              .689                                .799                                              23
Carlos Gomez           .657                                .730 (.840 last 2 years)                22
David Ortiz                .817                                 .925                                              22
Joe Mauer                .783                              .863                                               22

If you add roughly 100 points to Arcia's .730 OPS you have a very nice player.

To take this one step further, Ortiz got his first 615 PAs over his first four seasons, along with trips to the minors, 1997-2000 (All Star break), ages 21-24:

Here are his numbers in that time frame vs. Arcia (with 649 PAs over two seasons), ages 22-23:

Ortiz: BA- .263 SLG- .425 OPS- .784 ISO- .162 HR- 10 XBH- 54

Arcia: BA- .240 SLG- .427 OPS- .730 ISO- .187 HR- 25 XBH- 57

Edited August 18, 2014 by jokin

drivlikejehu · August 18, 2014

To hear that Arcia's numbers are "not good at all" and that "he is a very, very ordinary player right now" begs the question, what would good numbers be for a corner OF that is 22/23?

The problem is that you're cherry-picking after the fact. Most young players never achieve a big breakout, either because they were good right away or because they didn't develop further. Arcia certainly has the talent, but historically speaking it is incorrect to assume that a player will massively improve just because he entered MLB at a young age.

Arcia's lack of defense is a big part of the problem - it puts a ton of pressure on his bat from an overall production standpoint.

jokin · August 18, 2014

To hear that Arcia's numbers are "not good at all" and that "he is a very, very ordinary player right now" begs the question, what would good numbers be for a corner OF that is 22/23?

Giancarlo Stanton is the gold standard. I don't think that Arcia will ever match Stanton's bat, and obviously, his glove, but it's an extreme overreaction to characterize him as "not good at all". Given his rapid rise through the Twins system, his ML numbers at such a young age show the promise of potential multiple 35 HR, 130-140 OPS+ seasons as he reaches his peak years in his late 20s.

Edited August 18, 2014 by jokin

Brock Beauchamp · August 18, 2014

The problem is that you're cherry-picking after the fact. Most young players never achieve a big breakout, either because they were good right away or because they didn't develop further. Arcia certainly has the talent, but historically speaking it is incorrect to assume that a player will massively improve just because he entered MLB at a young age.

Arcia's lack of defense is a big part of the problem - it puts a ton of pressure on his bat from an overall production standpoint.

Massively improve? No.

But should we expect improvement from a 23 year old player as he approaches his prime seasons? Absolutely.

B Richard · August 18, 2014

While you are right that a high K-rate alone isn't everything, it is important to note that neither Arcia nor Vargas are high-strikeout players. Arcia's strikeout rate in A+ and AA was 19.7 and 20.1%, respectively, while Vargas struck out at a 20.2% rate in A+ and a 16.8% rate in AA. As a result, striking out at roughly a 30% rate in the major leagues isn't business as usual for Arcia and Vargas; to me at least, it's a signal that they might be in over their heads.

That's a fair point-- BB% is just as important to look at as well, however. Arcia has raised his rate by about 2% up from last year. To me, this is a positive sign to weigh against his contact struggles.

We'll see how Vargas adjusts going forward, right now in SSS he has a 4.5% BB rate. I'm going to be watching that rate just as closely as his K%.

Overall these guys are still early in their careers- there's plenty of room for adjustments going forward. This is a very exciting time to be a Twins fan

Edited August 18, 2014 by B Richard

Dman · August 18, 2014

I don't think anyone is saying Arcia is horrible and will never be any good but several are questioning an approach based solely on hitting the ball over the fence. If a HR is the only goal then even if he hits 50 of them in a season he will bat .100 or less.

The issue is instead of looking at what a team is giving you defensively and trying to take advantage, his suggestion is don't change your approach at all. Hit into the teeth of defense that is playing you to pull the ball, but wait no worries just put it over the fence or in Arcia's case just strike out and never put the ball in play at all. That will show them.

If I am a pitcher just throw Arcia a couple of balls in the dirt and something low and away and it is an easy out. Most of his home runs have come when the other team is way ahead or behind and they decide to actually challenge him and throw legitimate strikes. When guys are on base too often he is an easy out usually via a K.

Having said all that I like the guys enthusiasm. He really seems to enjoy the game and certainly swings with everything he has. His Fielding seem like it has improved but still needs some work but I think he can be average in the field. He seems a lot like Gomez when he came up so maybe he gets it in the next couple of years. I sure hope so because we need him. Right now I don't care for his approach.

tobi0040 · August 18, 2014

The problem is that you're cherry-picking after the fact. Most young players never achieve a big breakout, either because they were good right away or because they didn't develop further. Arcia certainly has the talent, but historically speaking it is incorrect to assume that a player will massively improve just because he entered MLB at a young age.

Arcia's lack of defense is a big part of the problem - it puts a ton of pressure on his bat from an overall production standpoint.

I looked up five players, the only ones I could think of that came up with the Twins at a young age and played along time. I listed four of those players, the other was Cuddy but I felt he didn't really apply becuase his first full year was at age 25. At 25 he had a .779 OPS, career .810 OPS. He had 2 years with an OPS over .900 and 2 more over .850.

It is very, very rare that you see a guy make the big leagues at age 22, have a long career and not improve upon those numbers. Typically, they k less, BB more, and develop more power as they age. My point is, if you start with a .730 OPS you may end in a very good spot.

Brock Beauchamp · August 18, 2014

If I am a pitcher just throw Arcia a couple of balls in the dirt and something low and away and it is an easy out. Most of his home runs have come when the other team is way ahead or behind and they decide to actually challenge him and throw legitimate strikes. When guys are on base too often he is an easy out usually via a K.

Reality is far more complicated than that.

11 HR total.

4 HR in tie games.

6 HR in games within 1 run.

7 HR in games within 2 runs.

Dman · August 18, 2014

Reality is far more complicated than that.

11 HR total.
4 HR in tie games.
6 HR in games within 1 run.
7 HR in games within 2 runs.

That is what happens when you don;t check facts. Egg on the face. :banghead:

Brock Beauchamp · August 18, 2014

That is what happens when you don;t check facts. Egg on the face.

I like to poke in and remind everyone of this little thing called "observational bias" every now and again.

Dman · August 18, 2014

I like to poke in and remind everyone of this little thing called "observational bias" every now and again.

Yeah I knew he had hit a couple in close situations but wasn't thinking\feeling in the 70% range. Good call out. I think my frustration at watching him strike out so much clouded my memory. I also didn't know where to go to check. Lazy deserves to be called out.

drivlikejehu · August 18, 2014

I looked up five players, the only ones I could think of that came up with the Twins at a young age and played along time. I listed four of those players, the other was Cuddy but I felt he didn't really apply becuase his first full year was at age 25. At 25 he had a .779 OPS, career .810 OPS. He had 2 years with an OPS over .900 and 2 more over .850.

It is very, very rare that you see a guy make the big leagues at age 22, have a long career and not improve upon those numbers. Typically, they k less, BB more, and develop more power as they age. My point is, if you start with a .730 OPS you may end in a very good spot.

Delmon Young had a .741 OPS at age 22 and .733 at age 23. That's right around his career averages. Luis Rivas never really improved on his age 21 performance. Those are just two quick Twins examples. Ben Grieve peaked between age 22-24 before hanging around as a lesser player for a while.

Players do not develop predictably. There are certain trends of course, but the degree to which young players improve is much less than is commonly believed- something Fangraphs did a good job examining recently.

Though I am optimistic about Arcia, his plate discipline issues are a real problem. I wish it was 100% certain he would overcome it, but that's not how baseball works.

tobi0040 · August 18, 2014

Delmon Young had a .741 OPS at age 22 and .733 at age 23. That's right around his career averages. Luis Rivas never really improved on his age 21 performance. Those are just two quick Twins examples. Ben Grieve peaked between age 22-24 before hanging around as a lesser player for a while.

Players do not develop predictably. There are certain trends of course, but the degree to which young players improve is much less than is commonly believed- something Fangraphs did a good job examining recently.

Though I am optimistic about Arcia, his plate discipline issues are a real problem. I wish it was 100% certain he would overcome it, but that's not how baseball works.

Really not a way either of us will be able to convince the other on this one, especially without the other thinking they are cherry picking. I would guess, players generally improve from their rookie years. They generally become better hitters, generally more patient, etc.

In the case of Arcia, if he ends up with a career .730 OPS and can't field a lick in the OF, he may struggle to stick in the big leagues. If he can become close to an average corner OF defensively and/or improves upon those offensive numbers like Torii Hunter, Carlos Gomez, Ortiz, or even Mauer he is an .800+ OPS guy. He is now making a case to bat DH if the defense does not improve or he certainly locks down a corner OF spot if he sniffs becoming an average defensive player.

nicksaviking · August 18, 2014

I may be wrong here, but I believe both Gomez and Ortiz made comments suggesting the Twins tried to change their approach. It appears, based on Arcia's comments that he has heard the same thing, enough so that he went out of his way to warn another young player.

And JJ Hardy and Torii Hunter. Who knows how much of it is true, maybe none of it. However there's a lot of cooks in the kitchen at Target Field, so the chances are good that where there's smoke there's fire, even if it's small and contained to one or two voices.

Kwak · August 18, 2014

Another problem for Arcia is that in a year or two he may have to fend off some serious challengers. Those hitting stats had better show that aforementioned improvement.

Hosken Bombo Disco · August 18, 2014

I wrote about this the other week but someone has already gotten to Vargas to alter his swing:

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/kennys-vargas-is-one-reason-to-keep-watching-r2950

I'm hoping one of the beat writers will address this.

Bump. I love these gifs even if it's just four pitches (SSS alert) which I think is acknowledged - great job, Nick

Hosken Bombo Disco · August 18, 2014

And JJ Hardy and Torii Hunter. Who knows how much of it is true, maybe none of it. However there's a lot of cooks in the kitchen at Target Field, so the chances are good that where there's smoke there's fire, even if it's small and contained to one or two voices.

Yeah I'd tend to believe someone else is telling Arcia to just be himself, thus Arcia passing that along to Vargas.

TheLeviathan · August 18, 2014

Yeah I'd tend to believe someone else is telling Arcia to just be himself, thus Arcia passing that along to Vargas.

It boggles my mind that people are so opposed to a poor reflection on the organization that they'd rip these kids for what they are working on just so there isn't the slightest negative criticism.

This team was too heavy handed for a long time in their player molds and, much to Ryan and others credit, that's no longer the case. So let's relish in this new, better way of operating as a team and coaching staff and not be so damn defensive of the poorer methods left behind.

jokin · August 18, 2014

Bump. I love these gifs even if it's just four pitches (SSS alert) which I think is acknowledged - great job, Nick

ISWYDT

and I approve..

ScottyB · August 18, 2014

DISAGREE!! Hoping for prospects to develop and the lineup to sort out to this batting order:
Buxton CF
~~Mauer 1B~~ Dozier 2B
~~Dozier 2B~~ Mauer 1B
Sano 3B
Vargas DH
~~Santana SS~~ Arcia RF
~~Arcia RF~~ Pinto C
Hicks LF
~~Pinto C~~ Santana SS

This is hoping they reach requisite professional skills to make this happen

(Mauer is high OBP guy, Dozier keeps up 20 HR/yr avg, etc)

I prefer the speed of Hicks and Santana at the bottom of the lineup. Bunching Hicks, Santana, Buxton and Dozier together gives a nice balance of speed and power. But I wuldn't have a problem flipping Dozier and Mauer.

Edited August 18, 2014 by ScottyB

DocBauer · August 19, 2014

Is it possible Arcia's comments were a bit off the cuff, filled with some truth, and it's being blown waaaaay out of proportion?

DocBauer · August 19, 2014

I'd like to state that I believe in playing to a player's strengths. I also maintain there are very different hitters. Mauer's stroke is built to spray line drives all over the field with gapper and some HR power. Get over him being a 30 HR hitter, he just isn't. Dozier, small than Mauer, has a stroke, and has made certain adjustments assuredly, that allow him more lift on his balls for HR power. In the Twins past, Gary Gaetti was much smaller than Kent Hrbek, but while Hrbek usually produced a higher BA, Gaetti usually had more pure power.

HOF 3B Wade Boggs was a very similar hitter to Mauer, as another comparison/example. The one year Boston put him at 3rd in the BO he produced much higher power numbers than normal, but all of his other perifferals took a fall.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, but wasn't the problem with a still very young Ortiz that he was injured a great deal? He showed potential and power but had a hard time being in the lineup daily. The Twins had to make a decision, felt the decision was best not to outbid, and let him go. Suddenly he seemed to get more healthy and productive.

There is nothing wrong with hitting the other way. But it's also a skill that can be worked on and learned, and not necessarily a strength of a strapping young power hitter. I know the Twins, over the years, have talked about teaching guys to hit the other way. And I know a COUPLE former players have blasted the Twins for this. Once again, please correct me if wrong, but have we ever actually ever heard the Twins, for lack of a better term, DEMAND hitters observe this approach or they can't play? Or were they simply trying to make certain guys a better hitter overall?

I guess it sounds obvious, but to me the most obvious approach is to play to a hitter's strength, even if he is a pull hitter. Next, you want to teach them to simply not try to pull every damn pitch they see. Just have a little control and discipline. Third, NOW you begin to get them to shorten strokes and make contact, and go the other way when pitched consistently outside. Overly simplistic? Yes. Absolutely. But isn't this the approach that makes the most sense? If all you do is pull the ball, not only could you strike out at high rates, but defensive shifts and ML pitchers hitting the outside corners consistently will result in weak ground ball after ground ball.

DocBauer · August 19, 2014

One final thought...IF the Twins are indeed guilty of trying too hard to teach hitters to hit the opposite way, stubbornly, is that perhaps a reflection of years spent playing on the turf in the dome? And apologies for my last post running together. About half my posts do that for reasons beyond my control.

chopper0080 · August 19, 2014

Do one thing exceptionally well first, THEN learn to do everything else as well. You have to have something to build upon before you can become well-rounded.

Let em learn. Let em grow.

tobi0040 · August 19, 2014

Leviathan, doesn't a recent comment from Arcia mean the twins might not have left this thinking behind?

TheLeviathan · August 19, 2014

Leviathan, doesn't a recent comment from Arcia mean the twins might not have left this thinking behind?

That's exactly what it means - and it's great!

tobi0040 · August 19, 2014

That's exactly what it means - and it's great!

I am a little confused. If the Twins have changed and no longer tell pull hitters to slap the ball the other way, why would a guy up basically one year warn a player that has been up a month, "they are going to tell you to slap the ball the other way but keep pulling HR's?"

If they don't do that anymore, why would Arcia tell Vargas they will? I think I am misunderstanding your post.

Edited August 19, 2014 by tobi0040

ashbury · August 19, 2014

Yeah I knew he had hit a couple in close situations but wasn't thinking\feeling in the 70% range. Good call out. I think my frustration at watching him strike out so much clouded my memory. I also didn't know where to go to check. Lazy deserves to be called out.

Actually, your observational bias isn't as bad as that. It's true that a majority of Arcia's HR have not come with the game essentially out of reach. But that's because relatively few of his plate appearances come in such conditions. So the counting stats don't come out as extreme, but the rate stats do:

From B-R.com, and not counting tonight's game:

Lead within 4: 231 PA, .203 BA, 7 HR, .653 OPS

Lead > 4: 37 PA, .351 BA, 4 HR, 1.130

If he could get a full season of PA at the rate of that second line, he'd hit 75 HR or so.

Needless to say, the first line isn't a very big sample size, and the second line is woefully small. League-wide, the rates in such pairs of lines tend to be more close to each other, and likely with more chances Arcia's numbers would trend more like that too.

But, if one is remembering very good performance from Arcia this season (and to a lesser degree last season) in blowout situations, it's not observational bias per se. Unless your observational bias is that the Twins are hopelessly behind in 50% of their plate appearances.

^{_{Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=arciaos01&year=2014&t=b}}

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Arcia, Vargas and Rebellion

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