Analyzing the Twins' Replacement Options for Sonny Gray

42 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

 Gray is 98 - 85  career with a 3.74 ERA. 

FanGraphs has SonnyG at:

98-85
3.47ERA
3.57FIP
3.67xFIP

Looking over these stats in FanGraphs, he looks to be a good 3.00-3.50 ERA and worth 2-4WAR.

I agree 5 is an outlier until backed up by at LEAST 1 more season.

But I'll take SonnyG at 2-4 over any of the currently available pitching FAs when you factor in the $$s.

Rodon was the talk of the FA market last year.  I reluctantly thought he might be a good addition, foolishly swayed by some articles I read, and look how that turned out.  Rangers won the WS despite the lack of pitching from there big FA signing.  

I'd even bring Maeda back on 1yr deal of about $12-$15M.  He pitched well down the stretch and it is the second season after a elbow procedure that a pitcher gets back to normal.

Thank God we didn't spend on Thor last year on a prove it deal.

Really boils down to a few things:

1) Is Gray open to the idea of returning to MN?
2) Do the Twins believe he can come close to the level of pitching he has provided over the last 2 years in the future?

If the answer is yes to both, the Twins should basically offer whatever it takes to keep him here.  3/$75 should do it.  Pitchers providing his caliber of work do not come around the FA market regularly.  Especially not at the price/year range it would take to sign him.

The Twins are out of the "building" phase and should be in "win-now" mode.  While not giving away the farm, they have a 3-4 year window here where they should be doing everything they can to win.  Signing Gray would not cost any prospects, only dollars.

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Really boils down to a few things:

1) Is Gray open to the idea of returning to MN?
2) Do the Twins believe he can come close to the level of pitching he has provided over the last 2 years in the future?

If the answer is yes to both, the Twins should basically offer whatever it takes to keep him here.  3/$75 should do it.  Pitchers providing his caliber of work do not come around the FA market regularly.  Especially not at the price/year range it would take to sign him.

The Twins are out of the "building" phase and should be in "win-now" mode.  While not giving away the farm, they have a 3-4 year window here where they should be doing everything they can to win.  Signing Gray would not cost any prospects, only dollars.

Bingo.  This sums it up perfectly with the addition of how the Twins think Gray will perform against:
a) the other available FAs they are willing to sign
b) other pitchers they are willing to trade for

 

20 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think the only way to replace a 5.0 WAR pitcher next year is to trade for someone good and get a little lucky when he has some real growth.  (Like a Pablo Lopez)  As much as I like Gray, he’s unlikely to duplicate this year’s success while a year older.  The young guys have potential, but none of them are likely producing that yet.  The free agents, perhaps a couple might to that, but I don’t think we are going to sign any of them that are going to be in the $25-30M range.  

That being said, with the floor being as high as it appears to be in the Twins rotation, it may not be necessary to directly replace it with one player.  A little growth from many along with someone who could be described as “solid” might be enough.  

My personal vote is to sign Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez if we can get it done without totally breaking the bank.  Either of them gives us a change of pace lefty in the rotation and both have the potential to be very good for a few years.  

Those are the two guys I like most from the list.  I don't want Giolito who was simply terrible this year.  Also, I don't think Gray is going to get as much as is projected.  I think (and maybe it's hope) that his top end is 3 years @ $75Million total.  I could also envision 3 years at 60 million.  I would sign him for those dollars.  Even if his production drops to to that of a 3 starter, that would make a fine rotation.

One thing I know for sure:  Pitching is going to cost more than anybody is projecting at this point.  The Dodgers probably need THREE starting rotation arms.  The Cardinals are desperate for SP.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Mets ALL need help in their rotations due to free agency, injuries or ineffectiveness.  Throw the Reds, Braves, D-Backs, Padres and Orioles in as well.  Pitching will be at a premium this off season, probably more than usual.  EVERYBODY needs pitching.  It's going to cost and there are only a finite number of real options to go around.

I want to move Varland to the pen.  Not necessarily "forever" but certainly for next season and then we'll go year to year.  Adding Varland to the pen lengthens it and really sets it up to be dominant.  I cut $3 million in salary by including Theilbar in any trade and let Funderburk replace Caleb.  If I'm moving Varland to the pen, I need to acquire TWO SP's to have adequate rotation depth heading into 2024.  We know Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddock are 4 SP. 

So lets look at some of the options or guys who will fit the Twins BUDGET, because we all know we generally don't pay "top dollar" for starting pitching.

Ed-Rod:  Probably gets 5 years and $20 a year.  Your paying for age 31 thru 35.  That's acceptable if you agree 35 is the age cutoff where you need to be careful.

Lucas Giolito:  An excellent lower priced candidate.  He's a horse (184 IP last year).  He strikes people out.  But he's been in a tremendously insane situation with the White Sox.  He's only 29 years old.  A four or five year deal at $15 million per would be a bargain in my opinion.  He'd be a candidate for a major comeback with a stable Twins organization and Pete Maki's tutelage.  I'm strongly in favor of this.  

BOTH Japanese pitchers will be good.  They will both cost waaaay to much.  Especially Yamamoto.  He's signing a $200 contract for sure.  He's not coming to Minnesota.

Trevor Bauer:  He's 32 and he is still a pretty good pitcher.  I have no idea what he would cost or who would be interested in him.  But with a gazillion teams needing pitching, people will be interested in him.  I could see him going back to the Reds.  He won a Cy Young there, it's in the midwest, out of the spotlight.  And that's why I think the Twins should be giving him serious consideration.  The heck with the "he's a cancer in the clubhouse" speculation.  He can still pitch.  A 3-year $12-$13 per year contract would pay dividends far beyond what Kenta Maeda would.

Tyler Mahle:  After what the Twins gave up in a trade to get him, it's been speculated that we would resign him at a team friendly deal to at least give us the chance to even the trade out a little bit.  The problem with Mahle is when would you get him back?  I've heard talk not until the All Star break.  That's too long and too risky for me.  Hard Pass on Mahle. 

Frankie Montas is also a guy I've been pushing for going back to last year's trade deadline.  I believe he's a free agent now and that his shoulder issues that sidelined him when the Yankees acquired him at the deadline in 2022 are healed.  EVERYBODY will be looking for buy-low deals.  What is the price to sign him?  How many years is realistic?  He's heading into his age 30-31 season.  By my age 35 rule, I'd offer him a 4 year deal. 

And finally, there's the trade market.  Who would possibly be available and what kind of package would be needed to get them?  One name that is sure to be available is Corbin Burnes.  Counsel will leave for another managerial opportunity.  Woodruff will miss all of 2024.  It's time for a rebuild in Milwaukee and Burnes is going to be traded.  I've mentioned several times previously that the age difference between Burnes and Joe Ryan is ONE year.  Here are two deals to acquire Burnes from Milwaukee.

Twins Get:  Burnes 32.0 BBTV and Garrett Mitchell 11.3 24 y/o OF  Total Value:  43,3

Brewers Get:  Joe Ryan 39.1 and either Jorge Polanco 4.5 value Total:  43.6 or Jose Miranda 5.1 value 44.2.  The choice for Milwaukee is between Polanco and his superior ability to Miranda but Jorge's $10.5 million contract for 2024 and an option year beyond that, or Miranda, a younger hitter with defensive limitations but still on a minimum contract. 

To be sure, other teams with certainly deeper pockets will be bidding for Burnes.  But if the Twins were looking at trotting out a rotation featuring Burnes, Lopez, FREE AGENT, Ober, and Paddock that would be interesting.  Plug in Giolito, Bauer, Ed-Rod or Frankie Montas into that F.A. #3 spot in the rotation.  With Duran, Varland, Jax, Stewart and Funderburk for certain and probably Moran and Alcala filling out the pen.  

You'd have one season of Burnes for sure and the chance to try to extend him before free agency for 2025.  He's pitched for the Brewers.  If he finds success with the Twins could he decide he'd rather be here than the insanity of L.A., New York, Philly or wherever?  There is no comparison between Burnes and Ryan.  Ryan has potential but real issues if he'll ever be able to ascend to the next level. 

Burnes is a former Cy Young Award winner who just is, and probably always will be, a far superior pitcher than Ryan.  The only benefit to Ryan right now compared to Burnes is cost.  And someday, Ryan will want to get paid, but he'll never be the pitcher Burnes is.  I'd sell high on Ryan, bring a Cy Young SP into the fold and add a FA SP who will be seen as a bargain to the guys who will get outrageously overpaid this winter.  But what a pitching staff that would be, from the rotation to the bullpen.  It could win a World Series.  Texas just did it.  Why couldn't the Twins.  

We can guess that there are quite a few conversations taking place within the MLB front offices,. Twins too. 

Falvey and crew will go position by position down the lists looking to see where the strengths and weaknesses lay. The depth last year was good but partially came from the onset of rookies pushing their way up. This then creates a similar guess about which rookies are ready to contribute next year. A few guys that catch my attention as depth rookies who could play useful roles next year are Austin Martin, Anthony Pratto, Michael Helman, and possibly DeShawn Kiersey Jr.  I don't see any of them being All Stars, but being solid players who make contributions when needed. Then Falvey and crew need to look at the depth and assess who projects to become/hold a position in a manner that brings the highest value to the Twins and which players then are possibly going to bring the most back in a trade. 

There are two unknowns: 1. What value do other teams place on players in the Twins system? 2. Do the Twins take some risks to push their talent level higher or do they focus more on another AL Central Division W?

When people put together their own ideas they reflect either going with a large percentage of players already within the system in hopes of another AL Central push or moving toward a strategy intended to add a higher level of potential. The one thing we can be certain of is ..... You just never know what path is better.

I think an analysis should look at the starter group as a whole. The starter group as a whole put up about 14.3 WAR (BR). I am not sure how Varland’s starter contribution was split but it probably pretty close to 0 either negative or positive.

Lopez and Ober were at 3 or better. Together, can they account for 7 of that WAR? Ryan had 1.2 WAR. He need to take a step for towards 3. Paddack’s best season as a starter was 2.9. Between these two can they get 5 WAR?

Assuming 12 WAR from those 4, they need to acquire 2-2.5 WAR. I think it needs to come from outside the organization so that they have the depth of Varland, Woods-Richardson and Festa. Gray would fit that need. A one year deal for Ryu or Maeda could fill that hole. It could be accomplished in trade. Trade Polanco to the Blue Jays in a buy low deal for Manoah.

They can’t count on replacing that 5.3 with one pitcher. They shouldn’t even count on Gray being able to repeat his 5.3. It will need to be a group effort with the 4 veteran starters taking a step forward and finding an addition that will give them the depth that they will need.

I'd  like Snell. Or another strong lefty.

This only an idea. I'm not even sure it should be done by any team. But I thought it would be fun to get comment. What about Trevor Bauer?