A Bright Future: Why Twins Fans Should Stay Optimistic Despite Offseason Challenges

17 hours ago, big dog said:

Steers had a very successful first year, no question. Hopefully he can repeat that in year 3. 

Moving him from the infield to the outfield MAY have played a part in his batting stats going down. If he stays in left field all year maybe that help settle his mind and get his batting average back up again. I think his bat will come around. 

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Typically, high school draft picks make MLB between 3-4 years after drafting.
Typically, college draft picks make MLB between 2-3 years after drafting.
Top draft picks and elite prospects generally knock a year off that.

I'm not going to agree with you.

Typically?

Typically, high school draft picks don't make MLB at all. If you are going to toss out things as empirical facts, try to define what you mean.

What percentage of high schoolers drafted in the first ten picks make MLB within 4 years of being drafted? What's the answer to that question?

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

When it comes to international prospect signings, let's just look at last year's All Star Roster. 40% of them debuted faster than Emma, but if Emma doesn't have any hiccups (or the Twins are absolutely desperate), and he makes it this year, he'll be in that 40-70% range so I'm probably just being too harsh. It's not fair to call it slow, but it's certainly not fast, either.
Juan Soto a19, Yordan Alvarez a22, Jose Ramirez a20, Salvador Perez a21, Isaac Paredes a21, Willi Castro a22, Anthony Santander a22, Wilson Contrares a24, Teoscar Hernandez a23, Jurickson Profar a19, Luis Arraez a22, Elly De La Cruz a21, Heliot Ramos a22, Marcell Ozuna a22.

8 of the 14 you've listed here made the MLB debut at 22 or later. Emma turns 22 at the end of Feb. Seems to be doing fine, especially for a player with injury histories. I'd be more concerned about him burning an option year if he'd done things like repeat levels on his way up. Those option years are very useful for players when they hit a bump or three acclimating to MLB (Ed Julien, are your ears burning?) but you'd hope that a high-level prospect like Emma isn't going to need to bounce up and down in 3+ seasons.

And not for nothing, but Walker Jenkins is actually moving through the system faster than Joe Mauer did at a similar age, and could easily debut in 2026 in his age 21 season, just like Mauer did. Since Mauer's easily one of the most successful draft picks and players in Twins history, it seems like a good path to be on. I might start to worry if he struggles against AA pitching this season; AA is where prospects can easily hit a wall for the first time.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

you'd hope that a high-level prospect like Emma isn't going to need to bounce up and down in 3+ seasons.

The thing is he isn't really a high level prospect. He's very, very intriguing. But his red flags prevent him from being a top level prospect. 

His strike out propensity actually means he likely WILL have some terrible stretches that get him sent down at some point. 

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If a player makes MLB, that's how soon they make it. Not sure why you want to bring the guys who don't make it at all into this conversation? 

When it comes to international prospect signings, let's just look at last year's All Star Roster. 40% of them debuted faster than Emma, but if Emma doesn't have any hiccups (or the Twins are absolutely desperate), and he makes it this year, he'll be in that 40-70% range so I'm probably just being too harsh. It's not fair to call it slow, but it's certainly not fast, either.
Juan Soto a19, Yordan Alvarez a22, Jose Ramirez a20, Salvador Perez a21, Isaac Paredes a21, Willi Castro a22, Anthony Santander a22, Wilson Contrares a24, Teoscar Hernandez a23, Jurickson Profar a19, Luis Arraez a22, Elly De La Cruz a21, Heliot Ramos a22, Marcell Ozuna a22.

Then clarify your terms. Of the MLB draft picks who make the majors...then define your criteria.

You can cherry pick data from current Twins; is that "typical"? I don't know that comparisons to All-Stars in one year are relevant, but if it is, use that as your criteria. Nothing about that seems typical. Is an All-Star a great player, a mediocre player having a great year, a mediocre player having the best year of anyone on his team and someone had to be picked?

If you are going to criticize people's opinions using data, don't just throw out some numerical thing that's based on who knows what and claim it's a real finding, i.e. it's typical.

How many of the top ten draft picks in the last ten years where high school picks, and how long did it take each of them to reach the majors? That would help us give a sense of what might be typical for evaluating our top picks.

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Where's your data, bud? Oh... don't have any. Nevermind.

Oh for heavens sake. You are the one making a claim. I’m trying to get you to back up your claim. I shouldn’t have to disprove whatever foolishness someone wants to post by looking for counter evidence. You won’t even clarify what you are claiming, much less support it.

Never mind.