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    7 Critical Twins Players to Track in the Final Months


    Nick Nelson

    The dream of contention has died, and several longtime fixtures have departed, but that doesn't mean fans can't find reason to watch in August and September. I wrote last week that that the vision for a championship contender in 2020 remains intact. Can the Twins speed up at that timeline and become a serious factor in the American League as soon as next year?

    That depends largely on a select group of players, many of whom will be on display and worth closely watching over the last two months of the campaign.

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today

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    Minnesota's roster has been whittled down over the past week, but plenty of remaining team members will be using the final third of the schedule to build toward better things next year.

    Positive signs from these seven enigmatic figures over the balance of the season would be extremely reaffirming as far as the club's future outlook is concerned.

    Miguel Sano

    One way or another, Sano will figure into Minnesota's 2019 plans. Will it be as a third baseman? A first baseman? A designated hitter? Will he be a trusted slugger in the middle of the lineup, or a total wild-card coming off a roundly disappointing season?

    We don't know the answers to these questions yet, but Sano can do much to provide clarity over the final nine weeks. First things first, he needs to start making some contact. Dating back to his return from the disabled list in late May, Sano has struck out in 36 of 84 plate appearances (43%) with the Twins, including six times in 10 plate appearances since his recall from a minor-league reset.

    If he can move back toward his customary (though still extremely high) 35% K range, while starting to crush the ball with more consistency, it'll be a very reassuring sign heading into the offseason.

    Monday's game at least felt like a step in the right direction, with Sano collecting a pair of hits (including a scorched double) and drawing a walk.

    Mitch Garver

    Already Garver is doing enough to prove himself with the bat. As an MLB rookie he has posted a .760 OPS, third-highest on the team, and that includes a .316/.409/.579 line in July. The 27-year-old combines a keen eye at the plate with strong contact skills and at least adequate power.

    Questions mainly seem to surround his defensive aptitude. In spite of his offensive takeoff, Garver hasn't quite been able to tap into a true starter's regimen behind the plate, even with veteran minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson as the sole alternative.

    As an outsider, it'll be a little tough to evaluate progress on this front. There are certain aspects of catching and receiving that are almost impossible to gauge as a mere spectator – rapport with pitchers, ability to execute a game plan, and so forth. I suppose we'll get a read on the coaching staff's perspective based on how Garver's usage behind the plate unfolds during the final weeks. Up to this point, Molitor has rarely had him catch on consecutive days.

    If the Twins finish the year feeling confident in Garver as a backstop, it'll significantly lower the ambiguity around the position going forward.

    Byron Buxton

    It's been a nightmare season for Buxton. Can he wake up before it ends or will he carry its echoes into the offseason?

    Crippling migraines, a trip to the disabled list, a broken toe, a horrendous stretch in the majors, a return to the disabled list, a demotion to Triple-A, another return to the disabled list, and now more distressing struggles.

    Since rejoining the Rochester Red Wings on Friday after a two-week absence due to a wrist injury, Buxton is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts, amidst rumblings that the wrist is still bothering him. In 88 total plate appearances at Triple-A he has struck out 27 times (32%), which is tremendously alarming for a 24-year-old who had absolutely slain International League pitching in the past.

    If he doesn't land on the DL again, Buxton will probably be back up fairly soon. Then, we'll get to see if the wayward centerpiece can start to find himself before time runs out on this season.

    Max Kepler

    Although his issues have been far less severe than fellow fizzling core components Sano and Buxton, Kepler's disappointing play has been arguably more troubling. Because unlike the other two, Kep's lackluster production can't be tied primarily to physical issues. He's been healthy enough to play in 102 of Minnesota's 105 games. There's nothing visibly wrong with him; he's even taking great ABs, tracking for a career-low K rate and career-high BB rate. But the results just aren't there.

    Among qualified MLB right fielders, Kepler's .729 OPS ranks dead last, remaining almost exactly static with the past two seasons. The complete lack of offensive growth has turned him from a promising rookie into a stagnating below-average outfielder with 1,500 plate appearances under his belt, approaching arbitration and hardly locked in as a long-term starter.

    He'd instill a lot more confidence with a big closing run that shows he's capable of translating the solid plate approach into sustained production. Right now this is very much in doubt.

    Addison Reed

    The front office's foray into free agency over the winter carried little risk. Lance Lynn and Zach Duke have already been flipped for prospects, and Fernando Rodney's contract for next year is optional (if he makes it through August). The only bold commitment they made was to Reed, whose two-year deal worth $16.75 million represented a record plunge for the Twins on the relief market.

    So far the results haven't been great. Reed pitched fairly well early on, then seemed to wear down as the season progressed, and spent the past couple of weeks sidelined by elbow issues. Reed was activated on Monday, and owns the team's highest guaranteed salary for 2019, so it'd be nice if he could show any hint of getting straightened out the rest of the way. With Ryan Pressly gone, the Twins really need Reed to be a major late-inning factor in their bullpen next season.

    In particular I'll be looking for a rebound in velocity. As you can see from the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed was trending downward in a big way before going on the shelf.

    reedvelo.JPG

    Fernando Romero

    Unlike most of the others mentioned above, Romero isn't a concerning case at present. He has had a strong first year in Triple A, and a very respectable intro to the majors at age 23. But his continued development is essential to Minnesota's short-term outlook, so it'll be key for Romero to keep it rolling.

    As you may be aware, the right-hander lost almost his entire 2014 and 2015 seasons to injury. He came back to log 90 innings in 2016, then ramped up to a career-high 125 last year before breaking down in August. He is currently at 110 frames this season between Rochester and Minnesota. Can Romero stay healthy and effective through 150-plus? If so, he'll answer one of the few remaining questions suppressing his stock.

    Michael Pineda

    Ah, the forgotten man. Minnesota signed Pineda to a two-year, $10 million contract in December as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The big righty's arm has now healed, and he's slated to start a rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League next week. If all goes well he ought to be up with the Twins for the final month, likely as a reliever.

    As we look ahead to the 2019 season, Pineda's an awfully intriguing factor. He has a 3.60 FIP, 1.19 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 rate as a big-leaguer. If he returns at a similar level, he has a chance to join Romero, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson in a potentially formidable rotation capable of contending for a championship.

    Which remaining players are you most interested in keeping an eye on as the season winds down?

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    That’s exactly what I’m worried about: 30 “ish” games.

    I just don’t see the cost outweighing the benefits.

    The Twins have probably 4 or 5 guys that can pitch as well as Odorizzi has this year. If they tender him, it might preclude the FO from seeking a better option because “that slot is filled”.

    Sure, maybe he would work in the pen. Maybe not. He’s never pitched in relief on a regular basis in his pro career. Some guys make the adjustment. Some don’t. Are you willing to risk $8 mil (that could be spent elsewhere) to find out?

     

    IMO, the 8MM is irrelevant, I don't see any way, short of signing Machado or Harper, they spend their budget next year.

     

    I really think we under value certainty a lot when talking about  moving to a minor league pitcher....we also under value the ability to send guys up and down.

     

    I would not be surprised if they keep him, I would not be surprised if they don't.

     

    As for the "better option"......IMO, given their depth, they aren't signing 2 (or trading for 2) new SP next year. 

     

    Odorizzi hits 5 years service time in 3 days, I think. And with that comes the right to refuse any optional assignment. So this isn't a factor anymore.

     

    thanks, it only slightly changes my opinion, but it lessons it a tiny bit. Like, barely can see it, it is so small....

     

    The Twins have probably 4 or 5 guys that can pitch as well as Odorizzi has this year. If they tender him, it might preclude the FO from seeking a better option because “that slot is filled”.

    Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

     

    And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

    IMO, the 8MM is irrelevant, I don't see any way, short of signing Machado or Harper, they spend their budget next year.

     

    I really think we under value certainty a lot when talking about moving to a minor league pitcher....we also under value the ability to send guys up and down.

     

    I would not be surprised if they keep him, I would not be surprised if they don't.

     

    As for the "better option"......IMO, given their depth, they aren't signing 2 (or trading for 2) new SP next year.

    Since neither you or I know what their budget will be, that is a meaningless statement. I’d say it is pretty likely they spend whatever Pohlad allows. Will that be less than 2018? Almost certainly. A lot less? Probably. 20% less? Wouldn’t surprise me.

     

    I don’t mind certainty as long as it is sufficient quality. Odorizzi almost certainly won’t pitch even 170 innings this year. Keeping in mind he had the advantage (such as it was) of starting the first game of the season. Odorizzi will also almost certainly see his ERA and WHIP go up for the fourth consecutive season. That’s not good. He’s going to post about a .7 or .8 bWAR this year. Isn’t that the definition of someone you should be looking to replace?

     

    You’re right. The Twins are not likely to pursue two new starting pitchers. But, maybe if they jettison Odorizzi, they will go after one who will be better. Hopefully someone trending in the right direction.

    Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

     

    And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

    yeah, there is a difference between depth and MLB quality depth.

    Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

     

    And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

    Odorizzi isn’t league average and is trending the wrong way.

     

    Every year, the Twins have guys who can pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    The problem is that the Twins need to have guys who will pitch like Odorizzi.

     

    Every year we go through this rigamarole: too many starters, replace a league average guy with a prospect, yadda yadda yadda.

     

    And every friggin' year, it bites the Twins in the ass no later than May 1st, sometimes as early as Opening Day.

     

    The big difference between 2019 and every other year is the volume of prospects available to fill that role. We've relied on cast offs such as Deduno or just tons of org filler (PJ Walters anyone?) to fill those roles.

     

    Don't get me wrong, I expect guys like Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart to struggle when they get their shot... Maybe we get lucky and they don't, but we really do have a fairly large list of guys that could provide some of that quality major league depth that Jimmer specified in another post, and quite a few of them have the upside to make it work. We aren't stocked with non-prospects in Rochester anymore.

     

    Truthfully, I think they may need to trade off some of their SP prospects in the not so distant future. They have way too many of them with guys like Wells and Graterol nipping on their heels. 

     

    Odorizzi isn’t league average and is trending the wrong way.

    Yeah, he is league average. ERA+ of 95, FIP in line with his ERA. He's right around league average for starters.

     

    Also, his 2018 FIP is just 0.20 above his career line. Odorizzi is actually having a consistently better season in 2018 than he did in 2017.

     

    The big difference between 2019 and every other year is the volume of prospects available to fill that role. We've relied on cast offs such as Deduno or just tons of org filler (PJ Walters anyone?) to fill those roles.

     

    Don't get me wrong, I expect guys like Gonsalves, Thorpe, and Stewart to struggle when they get their shot... Maybe we get lucky and they don't, but we really do have a fairly large list of guys that could provide some of that quality major league depth that Jimmer specified in another post, and quite a few of them have the upside to make it work. We aren't stocked with non-prospects in Rochester anymore.

     

    Truthfully, I think they may need to trade off some of their SP prospects in the not so distant future. They have way too many of them with guys like Wells and Graterol nipping on their heels. 

    The Twins have some interesting starting prospects coming up but the thing about pitching prospects is that they tend to disappear overnight.

     

    I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched. We see rotation attrition in every baseball season. If those guys are healthy and good, they'll get their shot as the pitchers in front of them are injured and/or ineffective. The Twins couldn't even make it to Opening Day this season without losing their 2017 All-Star starting pitcher.

     

    And if several of those prospects manage to be healthy and good at the same time, that's not really a problem... But counting on that to happen and trading away an established starter before they've proven themselves is a good way to enjoy a season of Andrew Albers at Target Field.

     

    The Twins have some interesting starting prospects coming up but the thing about pitching prospects is that they tend to disappear overnight.

     

    I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched. We see rotation attrition in every baseball season. If those guys are healthy and good, they'll get their shot as the pitchers in front of them are injured and/or ineffective. The Twins couldn't even make it to Opening Day this season without losing their 2017 All-Star starting pitcher.

     

    And if several of those prospects manage to be healthy and good at the same time, that's not really a problem... But counting on that to happen and trading away an established starter before they've proven themselves is a good way to enjoy a season of Andrew Albers at Target Field.

     

    I don't really disagree with anything you said here, but I just think there's a pretty huge difference between guys like Gonsalves, Thorpe, Littell, Romero, Slegers, May, and Mejia in comparison to guys like Walters, Albers, and Deduno. 

     

    Now that said, I'd certainly be fine flipping one or more of those guys for an established ML need (such as C or a 1B/DH type), as we have too many of them and more coming behind them. But I can also see why we might flip a guy like Odorizzi to make room for them too. It really comes down to how many open spots the FO is willing to roll with. Right now, our sure things to be in the rotation are Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, and most likely Pineda. That's a lot of guys for 1 spot, and I personally struggle with the idea that May and Mejia won't be able to outperform Odorizzi in 2019. 

    Yeah, he is league average. ERA+ of 95, FIP in line with his ERA. He's right around league average for starters.

     

    Also, his 2018 FIP is just 0.20 above his career line. Odorizzi is actually having a consistently better season in 2018 than he did in 2017.

    This is correct. The ERA+ of starters as a whole is almost always in that range.

     

    It would be folly to project based on WAR or ERA or FIP but the Two s have a bunch more data in order to project next year. If he projects similarly or better they absolutely should take him to arbitration.

     

    I am also intrigued by the opener. He might be a good fit for a pitcher to come in following an opener with his reported better success twice through the line up.

    The correct answer it doesnt matter. The front office is already planning to give up next year and sell so we get more prospects. We should plan on the front office calling it a season as soon as we are 5 games back. They dedinately wont do in season reinforcements. Keep expectations real and root for the Yankees future star pitcher (Gibson)or some other big markets future players as we get them developed so we can trade them for more prospexts to trade......

    If this was the plan, Gibson would have been traded this deadline. Since they hung on to him and anyone else with team control past this season (Pressly being the exception), that tells me that they still think they can compete next season.

     

    They do have work to do this offseason, but with so many players having career worst type years, it may not be as much as it seems. I do hope that they bring in more depth as a contingency though.

    An ERA of 95 + is close to average, but is still below.

     

    And as I said, trending the wrong way.

     

    117 in 2015, 108 in 2016, 100 in 2017 and 95 this year. Not a significant drop year to year. However, 117 to 95 is a significant difference. One you pay. One you try to replace. It is certainly concerning that a guy who should be in his prime is getting worse. If you are banking on Gibson and Berrios being better (and the Twins certainly are) and if Pineda comes back and looks good - because that is what I indicated as a major factor in the decision - that makes 3. Mejia certainly looks like a league average pitcher. That’s 4.

     

    So the question is again - are you really willing to spend $ 8 mil for a guy that might be your worst starter when Romero can do that for next to nothing and allow the team to use that $8 mil elsewhere?

     

    I’m not.

    Edited by yarnivek1972

    An ERA of 95 + is close to average, but is still below.

     

    And as I said, trending the wrong way.

     

    117 in 2015, 108 in 2016, 100 in 2017 and 95 this year. Not a significant drop year to year. However, 117 to 95 is a significant difference. One you pay. One you try to replace. It is certainly concerning that a guy who should be in his prime is getting worse. If you are banking on Gibson and Berrios being better (and the Twins certainly are) and if Pineda comes back and looks good - because that is what I indicated as a major factor in the decision - that makes 3. Mejia certainly looks like a league average pitcher. That’s 4.

     

    So the question is again - are you really willing to spend $ 8 mil for a guy that might be your worst starter when Romero can do that for next to nothing and allow the team to use that $8 mil elsewhere?

     

    I’m not.

    That’s not how ERA+ works. The metric is drawn from ALL pitchers, including relievers, who usually pitch at a much lower ERA because they pitch in favorable matchups and hitters only face them once.

     

    A 95 ERA+ is virtually spot-on for a league average starting pitcher.

     

    As for Odorizzi’s declining ERA, I’m sure moving out of Tampa and then losing Buxton behind him for the season dinged his ERA a condsiderable amount, which is why I included FIP. And FIP says Odorizzi’s ERA is close to his performance (unlike last season, where FIP *hated* Odorizzi).




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