4 Off-the Radar Pitching Trade Targets for the Twins

The Astros have assembled a two-headed monster atop their rotation through trades, acquiring both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Last year's World Series champs, the Red Sox, landed their ace Chris Sale in a deal with Chicago. Boston's 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello was also a trade pickup, but that year it was Cleveland winning the AL pennant, led by trade acquisitions Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Previously, James Shields pitched the Royals into a World Series after coming over from Tampa.

Free agents and internally developed talent have played a part too, of course, but it's fair to say that trades have been massively influential in building the rotations that are running the league over the past half-decade.

In the 2020 Offseason Handbook (now available for preorder!), Jeremy Nygaard presents cases for 16 different players (mostly starting pitchers) the Twins could target via trade in the coming months. There are plenty of logical names on his list, and I'm sure we'll be hearing several of them discussed repeatedly as the offseason gets underway.

Today, I'm going to dig a little deeper and highlight four players who aren't on his list, and aren't being mentioned much in connection with the Twins generally. It might be a stretch to believe some of these players are available (particularly the last one), but then again, if there's a will there's a way.

Chris Paddack, RHP

Team: Padres

2019 Stats: 146 IP, 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9

Contract Status: Under team control through 2024

Most of the names covered here will be established veteran players, whose value lies in their immediate and short-term impact potential. Paddack, conversely, is more of a big-picture target – the kind that jibes with this front office's thinking. He was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of the 2019 campaign, and dubbed by Prospects Live as a future ace. Paddack looked the part as a 23-year-old rookie for the Padres, posting those numbers you see above.

You might read those numbers, in combination with the five remaining years of team control, and ask, "Why on Earth would San Diego even think about trading this guy?" It's a fair question. Fresh off signing Manny Machado to a $300 million mega-deal, the Padres are not in the business of shipping off key pieces and rebuilding endlessly.

Thing is, even with Machado, they still finished in last place in 2019 with one of the league's least potent offenses – both familiar scenarios. Despite routinely sporting solid-to-great pitching staffs, the Padres can't escape the NL West cellar, in large part because they haven't had a 700-run season in more than a decade. They need offensive firepower, and with Machado and Eric Hosmer consuming a huge portion of payroll for the next many years, they need it at controllable cost. The Twins can help in that area.

Start with Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, or Byron Buxton. Perhaps even dangle Max Kepler and his highly attractive contract, if the Padres demand proven production and durability. Throw in another top-tier prospect or two and you've got a valid offer for Paddack at the very least. The price will hurt, but he could be a franchise-altering addition for the Twins.

Sonny Gray, RHP

Team: Reds

2019 Stats: 175.1 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9

Contract Status: Signed through 2022 ($10M/yr) w/ $12M option in 2023

Photo by David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Formerly a young rotation-fronter for the A's, Gray took a major step back from 2016 through 2018, posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.38 WHIP during a three-year period that included a tumultuous stint in New York. The Yankees dealt him to Cincinnati in January with his value depressed, and the deal proved to be a coup for the Reds. In the National League, Gray returned to form and then some.

He posted a career-high strikeout rate, made the All-Star team, and held opponents to a .196 batting average (.165 in the second half). Best of all, he remains under control at a reasonable rate for three more years. Yep, the Reds did quite well for themselves, and now they could complete the act by selling high after buying low.

Cincinnati's 26-year-old rotation centerpiece, Luis Castillo, probably isn't going anywhere, but the club might be open to listening on the historically volatile Gray, who has three (cost-efficient) years left on his deal. He underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September, which adds to his uncertainty. The operation was considered minor, and if he continues to pitch like he did this year, the righty makes a quality complement to Berrios afront the rotation, while also leaving plenty of flexibility to commit big dollars to a top free agent who can slot ahead of them.

Gray won't come cheap in prospect capital. If Eddie Rosario is in the package, it's as no more than an add-on. You'll need to be ready to part with good young talent to sway the Reds, who will surely have multiple bidders if they make Gray available. Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach might need to be in play.

Chris Archer, RHP

Team: Pirates

2019 Stats: 119.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

Contract Status: Club options for 2020 ($9M) and 2021 ($11M)

Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Whereas the Twins would be buying high on Gray, the opposite is true of Archer. Pittsburgh gave up big prospect talent to acquire him from Tampa in July of 2018, and the move has been nothing short of disastrous for them. Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows, whom the Pirates gave up in the swap, are emerging as young stars for the Rays. Archer has been sub-mediocre for Pittsburgh. A cautionary tale for a team like the Twins, to be sure.

But Archer's still got some game in him, provided he can get past the shoulder inflammation that shut him down in September. At 31, he's far from ancient. He still brings heat in the mid-90s regularly, with a dirty slider, and struck out 27% of the batters he faced in 2019. (Michael Pineda led Twins starters at 23%.) I'd be curious to see what Wes Johnson and Company could do with him.

Much like Gray, Archer has a very appealing contract, with two years of optional control at below-market rates. Unlike Gray, he likely wouldn't cost one of Minnesota's most coveted prospects. You'll have to do enough to entice Pittsburgh, naturally, but coming off a last-place finish the Pirates should be open-minded.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP

Team: Dodgers

2019 Stats: 178.1 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

Contract Status: Signed through 2021 ($31M/yr)

Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Okay. This one may seem like a reach. A healthy Clayton Kershaw has an argument as the best pitcher in the game, and maybe in modern history. He's already a Hall of Fame lock at age 31. And the championship-thirsty Dodgers have him under control for another two years. Would Los Angeles even dream of listening on this legendary southpaw?

Maybe not. Probably not. But hear me out. The Dodgers have one sole aspiration that overrides all else: winning a World Series. The franchise hasn't hoisted a trophy since the Kirk Gibson Series in 1988. It's not for a lack of spending or trying. They've gone to the playoffs seven straight years, and continually come up empty in their quest. Despite the unparalleled excellence of Kershaw over this entire span, they just keep on falling short.

And as weird as it is to say for an eight-time All-Star, three-time Cy Young winner, former MVP, etc.: Kershaw has himself been somewhat culpable. His body hasn't held up of late, as he's missed time in each of the past four seasons (albeit never hugely significant time). More pertinently, he has failed to match his regular-season dominance in October, and most recently he gave up back-to-back homers in the most crucial of Game 5 spots to effectively punch LA's ticket for an early exit in the NLDS.

No one is gonna be fooled by this unfortunate blip, or by Kershaw's "career-worst" season (quotes added to emphasize the relativity of this statement), into thinking he's anything less than a premier starting pitcher in the game. The cost to acquire him would be off-the-charts – we're probably talking Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, as a starting point.

But, I dunno. if you're the Dodgers, and you have a chance to make that deal while reinvesting Kershaw's salary into signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg... don't you do it? And if you're the Twins, ready to push your chips in, confident in your ability to develop more future stars... don't you do it?

Kershaw is a legend in Los Angeles. Rightfully so. But the city's faith in him has to be at an all-time low right now. And the Dodgers are primed for a big shakeup of some sort this winter. They've been attempting to ride Kershaw to a championship unsuccessfully for a decade, and now might represent their last chance to recoup maximum value in a trade before he returns to free agency.

The Twins would need to be supremely confident in Kershaw's ability to sustain ace-like performance, and keep his chronic back issues at bay. But if so, and the Dodgers are actually open to such an idea, this is an opportunity you can't pass up. Right?

Share your thoughts in the comments and keep the discussion going by sharing your favorite outside-the-box pitching trade targets for the Twins. Why might they be available? What would it realistically take to acquire them?

It's a good way to warm ourselves up for the 2020 Offseason Handbook, which those who preorder will receive this week!