2024 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

The way the boards are shaking out I think many of my favorite players will be gone by the time the Twins pick. I am hoping the hitters the Twins are targeting are players with excellent contact skills and plate Discipline.  Those are generally fast movers like Lee and Keaschall.  You can have players like Miranda that have great contact skills but lack plate discipline and it can take longer as they try and acquire that skill.  Maybe they have great plate discipline like Julien but lack elite contact skills. It is going to take longer to get there.  Maybe they have huge power but K too much it is gonna take longer to get there if at all ala Sabato, Wallner, Rooker.

Given the way I see the board falling I see them most likely grabbing Malcom Moore, Janek or Culpepper at 21.  If Gillen is there he should be the pick, but in most mocks he is gone. 

There are two players that could fall to 21 that with a bit more polish would be top 5 picks in Honeycut and Brecht. Honeycutt has a very high K rate but all his other tools are elite.  His sophomore year he evened out his K rate and walk rate but lost most of his power.  Is he someone a team could help bring down the K rate and turn into an average hitter with power?  That would be the risk and the odds would be long as contact is hard to teach and it only gets tougher as you move up levels. At any rate if they want to swing for the fences in an all or nothing pick he is there. If he turns out he is a likely All Star player if not then just an elite defensive outfielder.

Brecht just started pitching full time and has been getting slightly better with his control as the year progressed.  If he had any semblance of control he would be a top 5 to 10 pick. He is tantalizing enough that he could still go in the top 20 (I have the Brewers taking him) but he also could easily slide to 21 where the Twins would have to decide if he can ever harness his amazing stuff.  Given most boards if not taken in the top 20 he goes somewhere in picks 21 to 30. Generally I would say no way to this pick but there is some thought that he hasn't had the best coaching and that it might not take much to get him on track.  The alternative is he never makes it because be can't throw enough strikes.

Gonna be an interesting draft as I think team needs might trump where the boards have some players. They are so evenly matched after pick 12 or 13 that depending on how you view the player you could justifiably go any direction.

Guess I'm going to end up repeating what I said in a different thread....

But to @Dman concerning Brecht, I don't think he slides to 21 either. And I also think the Brewers are a good option to taking him. But if he does, he's got 3 different outcomes: 1} washout who never gets control, 2} high end reliever since he never gets enough control, at least over a 3rd offering, 3} he becomes a front of the rotation arm. That's a lot of variance, but when picking 21st in a not so deep draft, maybe you take that shot on upside?

If history shows us anything,  there will be a surprise or two before pick 21, possibly even a team or two playing the over/under slot game and a top college bat might still slide to the Twins at 21. I'd call it 50/50?

When you look at an interesting collection of HS SS through the first 30-40 picks, and a collection of HS arms that is supposed to be two rounds deep, I keep thinking the Twins might go heavy today. Might they select as many as 3 prep players this early? They would seem to have the bonus pool $ to do so. And when I look at the lower minors, I think there's a fit for a young arm or two and a young SS to take time to develop for the future.

IDK, but it's going to be interesting and a bit exciting to have 4 of the top 69 pick.

Jeremy, thank you for your comprehensive coverage!  Longtime reader, first time poster.  Looking forward to following along tonight

Keith Laws email today sure makes this draft sound shallow. Can't wait to see who the surprise great players are in five years. That's always interesting to me. Good luck everyone hoping to get drafted today!

7 hours ago, Dman said:

The way the boards are shaking out I think many of my favorite players will be gone by the time the Twins pick. I am hoping the hitters the Twins are targeting are players with excellent contact skills and plate Discipline.  Those are generally fast movers like Lee and Keaschall.  You can have players like Miranda that have great contact skills but lack plate discipline and it can take longer as they try and acquire that skill.  Maybe they have great plate discipline like Julien but lack elite contact skills. It is going to take longer to get there.  Maybe they have huge power but K too much it is gonna take longer to get there if at all ala Sabato, Wallner, Rooker.

Given the way I see the board falling I see them most likely grabbing Malcom Moore, Janek or Culpepper at 21.  If Gillen is there he should be the pick, but in most mocks he is gone. 

It's almost a certainty that one of the following group will be available at 21: Seaver King, Waldschmidt, Benge, Honeycutt, Gillen

In the chalkiest of drafts they could all be gone, but it's much more likely that there will be a few surprises and more than one are available.  If at least two are available when the Twins pick, I think there's a good probability that one of them will be the Twins pick, though it's certainly possible for some of them to slide a bit more, particularly Honeycutt.

I think Janek and Malcolm Moore could be in the mix, and Cijnte and Brecht possibly too.  My gut feeling is that it'll be a bat though

Annnnnnd.......we're off! Bazzana to Cleveland, just like it was supposed to be the past couple of months.

 

Bazzana to the Guardians makes sense.

I definitely thought the Wetherholt rumors were a little overblown

Not a reach for Burns to go #2, but already a pick that basically no one was predicting.

I think it could be a chaotic draft.

1 minute ago, 2wins87 said:

Not a reach for Burns to go #2, but already a pick that basically no one was predicting.

I think it could be a chaotic draft.

I think there might be more pitching going top 20 than was originally expected.

5 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Not a reach for Burns to go #2, but already a pick that basically no one was predicting.

I think it could be a chaotic draft.

I think 50/50 one of the top college bats reaches the Twins at 21? I think it comes down to the number of college and HS arms that are taken between now and 21.  Not holding my breath,  but am crossing fingers that Carson Benge MIGHT slip to 21

 

Didn't want Caglianoni ending up with CWS or KC.  Think he will end up the best player out of this class.  Was hoping he'd stay away from the division!

Longenhagen et al saying Morlando to Miami at 16.

Getting weird now

3 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Longenhagen et al saying Morlando to Miami at 16.

Getting weird now

And now Braylon Payne to Milwaukee at 17.

Yesavage is falling, I wonder if the Twins would be on him.  Seems like the kind of guy who could get really good under the Twins pitching development.

Twins are going to be able to get Yesavage, Brecht, Sloan or Caminiti if they want them.

Mets took the hitter I wanted, which wasn’t surprising

Twins pass over all the pitchers and grab the college SS.

In my opinion we just drafted another Keoni Cavaco

Booooo

Another shortstop type, as expected. Trade deadline permutations hardest hit.

Assuming Culpepper will sign below slot.

They might have an underslot deal with Culpepper and then target one of the LSU players committed players with the comp pick at 33.  

Good athlete and has shown his skills in college. He has as good a shot as anyone. Now he gets professional pitchers and must learn when to swing and when to take.

 

3 minutes ago, SGL said:

In my opinion we just drafted another Keoni Cavaco

Culpepper is not my favorite of those left, but there is a big difference between a college guy and a HS hitter who didn't face much high level competition.

Cavaco's bat was pretty much completely untested, whereas they have a good idea of what they are getting with Culpepper's bat.

Might not end up an amazing bat but it's not going to be a complete flop.

They had a chance at Caminiti and blew it.

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

They had a chance at Caminiti and blew it.

Honeycutt going 1 pick later will be an interesting comparison as well.

24 minutes ago, SGL said:

In my opinion we just drafted another Keoni Cavaco

I think more of another Nick Gordon

It's a well rounded profile. He has plus hit tool with a fairly even walk to K rate.  A plus arm and solid average speed who can play shortstop but won't be elite there.  He is rated as slightly below average power but I bet the Twins will get him to average if not slightly above.  His swing plane is flat so there might be untapped potential with the bat.  The bad is I hear he does chase out of the zone more than you would like.  

He has potential to do everything well with no standout tool other than his arm and his bat if it does end up plus as he moves up. It's a solid profile but hard to see star player there unless things change with the bat.

31 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Another shortstop type, as expected. Trade deadline permutations hardest hit.

Huh?

Next pick will finish the Sonny Gray trade.

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Next pick will finish the Sonny Gray trade.

Have to wonder if Brecht will make it past the DBacks and O's