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    Organizational Depth: A Look at Pitching Throughout the Twins System

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    In recent years, the Twins have not been afraid to make trades to bring in pitchers and hitters. The ideal situation is trading from an organization's position of strength to acquire players from positions of need. To do so, a team must be honest in evaluating their positions of strength and their positions of need. 

    Is "Pitching" currently a strength in the organization? Do they need to acquire starters or relievers this offseason? Do they have enough ready or nearly-ready talent in the upper-levels of the minor leagues?  

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    We have read about and written about and talked about a “Pitching Pipeline” for the Minnesota Twins. It was one of the reasons that many were so excited about the Twins bringing in Derek Falvey as President of Baseball Operations seven years ago.

    Starting Pitchers
    2023 Starting Staff: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland
    Free Agents: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda
    Projected 2024 Starting Staff: RHP Pablo Lopez, RHP Chris Paddack, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Bailey Ober, RHP Louie Varland.
    Ended 2023 in St. Paul: RHP Randy Dobnak, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP David Festa, LHP Brent Headrick.
    Ended 2023 in AA Wichita: RHP Marco Raya, RHP Travis Adams, RHP Pierson Ohl, LHP Jaylen Nowlin, LHP Jordan Carr.

    The six starting pitchers mentioned above made 149 of the team’s 162 starts (92.0%). Add Dallas Keuchel’s six starts and Tyler Mahle’s five starts, and you cover 160 starts. That is not normal, and the Twins can’t make any sort of assumption that it will happen again.

    Chris Paddack returned late in the season in the bullpen and showed that he is strong. The Twins are still likely to add a pitcher or two in free agency or via trade, but which minor leaguers have a chance to contribute in 2024? Also, who are the exciting prospects to follow through the pitching pipeline?

    We saw some of the candidates make their debuts in 2022 and 2023. Josh Winder and Cole Sands moved to the bullpen full-time in 2023. In addition, former top starting pitcher prospect Jordan Balazovic debuted in the bullpen. He had one strong month with the Twins and was getting opportunities in key spots before struggling late and being optioned. Brent Headrick came up a few times and worked in relief, both long and short. However, when he was in St. Paul, he was used as a starter.

    Louie Varland made 10 starts for the Twins, but in September, he was used out of the bullpen and showed dominance. However, he should remain a starter, at least for the foreseeable future. And, finally healthy, Randy Dobnak should be considered for a spot just like others who reach St. Paul.

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily (including Brewer Fanatic, North Side Baseball), Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects. #GirlDad
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

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    Doctor Gast

    Doctor Gast 5,331

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    • Posted

    I expect a lot of innings from Lopez, Ryan & Ober have another year under their belts so I expect them to support their workload better, If we pick up another Lopez type trade that would be great. Paddack & Varland should be taken slower to maximize their potential. Again long relief should be implemented & used regularly with spot starting roles. Paddack, Varland, Headrick, SWR, Festa, & Winder are good candidates. If Dobnak turns things around better could figure into the mix.

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    Cory Engelhardt

    Cory Engelhardt 2,073

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    I 100% expect Varland to be a high leverage reliever, as I'm certain they will bring at least one starter in to complete the rotation.

    I'm also really excited for Festa and Lewis and Ohl. I think all of them could theoretically get start(s) this year, and all have really exciting stuff.

    Fun to see legitimate depth that isn't far away.

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    Dman

    Dman 9,408

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    I think the Twins are in the best shape they have been for starters heading into the offseason.  I think they need one more starter though as that could give the bullpen a boost by putting Varland in the pen.  I am hoping Festa looks like a usable option as the season wears on.  He has the stuff, but he does seem to wear down as the pitch count mounts.  Ohl is a wild card.  He doesn't appear to have much for plus pitches, but he attacks and gets the job done. If that carries over to AAA he could help later in the season as well.  Raya has ton's of plus pitches but tends to still give up too much contact.  If he improves that this year he might be the best of the bunch.  Not sure how many innings he can go, but he could be a pen arm down the stretch if needed. A lot has to go right for Festa, Ohl, Raya to contribute, but at least the potential is there.

    I don't trust the backup pen arms in Sands, Winder, Balazovich, Headrick, and Henriquez.  They all were inconsistent last year.  The FO was depending on those arms to improve, but they stayed flat IMO.  Those guys need to bring it this year as Festa, Ohl, Raya and possibly Lewis are nipping at their heals.  I am hoping the Twins can find at least one more veteran arm for the pen and preferably a high end one.  Also hoping Canterino comes back strong and take a role in the pen as well.

    As this article points out the Twins have never had this level of higher quality pitching depth probably ever.  Still they need to keep improving.

     

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    Paul Walerius

    Paul Walerius 69

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    I expect a lot of innings from Lopez, Ryan & Ober have another year under their belts so I expect them to support their workload better, If we pick up another Lopez type trade that would be great. Paddack & Varland should be taken slower to maximize their potential. Again long relief should be implemented & used regularly with spot starting roles. Paddack, Varland, Headrick, SWR, Festa, & Winder are good candidates. If Dobnak turns things around better could figure into the mix.

    Problem with Dobnak, he was a good story but throws soft and doesn't miss bats 

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    Bob Twins Fan Since 61

    Bob Twins Fan Since 61 95

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    I would pump the brakes on Varland moving to the bullpen.  He has stated his preference is to be a starter.  He was fine doing it late in the season to help the team and be in the big leagues.  I think the Twins will give him a chance to make their rotation this spring.  If he is beaten out, then the option of being moved to the bullpen and staying in the big leagues can be considered.  Personally, I think there is a strong chance he could developed into very good starter.  I would afford him that opportunity.

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    NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

    NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin 393

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    50 minutes ago, Paul Walerius said:

    Problem with Dobnak, he was a good story but throws soft and doesn't miss bats 

    His walk rate was also 10.7% in AAA last year. If he were still throwing the ball over the plate, I think he would be great as a spot starter/long reliever, but if we can't trust him to go five-plus innings, he probably does not have a role on the '24 Twins.

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    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 7,256

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    • Posted

    1 hour ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

    His walk rate was also 10.7% in AAA last year. If he were still throwing the ball over the plate, I think he would be great as a spot starter/long reliever, but if we can't trust him to go five-plus innings, he probably does not have a role on the '24 Twins.

    His walk rate was lower than the league average of 11.8%. The automated zone made it very difficult to pitch.

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    PatPfund

    PatPfund 810

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    Great summary! The fact the Twins didn't need to add any pitchers to the 40-man this off-season to protect them from Rule V shows their hitting side is much further along than the arms (who are either too injured, too young, or too fungible to be targets). Another indicator that a trade/FA acquisition (even for depth) of hitter for starting pitcher is likely.

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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 1,881

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    8 hours ago, Bob Twins Fan Since 61 said:

    I would pump the brakes on Varland moving to the bullpen.  He has stated his preference is to be a starter.  He was fine doing it late in the season to help the team and be in the big leagues.  I think the Twins will give him a chance to make their rotation this spring.  If he is beaten out, then the option of being moved to the bullpen and staying in the big leagues can be considered.  Personally, I think there is a strong chance he could developed into very good starter.  I would afford him that opportunity.

    If Twins are able to make a move for a rotation piece then having Varland working out of the Pen and being an “opener” once or twice a month is a great use of his abilities.

    Funderburk - Jax - Varland - Thielbar - Stewart - Duran are a nice front for the Pen.

    I do agree that it sure appeared the Twins were going to give Varland a chance to start - per conversations from both parties last September.

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    wabene

    wabene 5,144

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Varland looked great in the pen, but the Twins need rotation depth. It's going to be hard for many to take having that talent stashed in AAA. Take solace in his presence there as a sign of a strong organization. There will be injuries and they will get a good look at him to see if he can fulfill his dream of being a starter and getting paid like one. If he can't pitch to the level of, say, a #3 or better starter, then you have your answer; pen weapon. 

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