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    Offseason Status Update: Standing Still as Spring Approaches


    Nick Nelson
    Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz and Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images (Pictured: Anthony Misiewicz and Diego Cartaya)

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    It's been a while since we last checked in with a report on Twins offseason activity and we've got a whole lot of nothing to get you updated on. (Which is, in itself, the story of the winter for this team.)

    These status updates are intended to serve as periodic recaps of the team's latest moves, rumors and headlines, helping keep in the loop those who don't follow Twins baseball closely during the offseason. Needless to say, there hasn't been much to cover this winter, and that rings truer than ever as we head into the home stretch of hot stove season.

    In the three-plus weeks since I last checked in to comment on the roster's lack of turnover in a new year, here's a recap of everything the team has done:

    • Traded minor-league pitcher Jose Vasquez to the Dodgers for minor-league catcher Diego Cartaya. 
    • Signed left-handed pitcher Anthony Misiewicz to a minor-league contract.
    • Signed a bunch of teenagers comprising the organization's newest international free agent class.
    • Reached final agreement on contracts with all of their arbitration players.

    While not especially significant, all of these moves are interesting in their own way, and there have also been some noteworthy rumors percolating in the Twins sphere. So let's get up to speed on everything you need to know with spring training now just a few short weeks away.

    Twins Acquire a Former Top Catching Prospect from Dodgers in Diego Cartaya
    Two years ago, ahead of the 2023 season, Cartaya was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 14 prospect in all of baseball. Since then, his stock has fallen far enough that Los Angeles designated the 23-year-old for assignment earlier this month to make room for newly signed Hyeseong Kim on their roster. Minnesota jumped to head of the waiver line by making a trade, sending rookie-ball pitcher Jose Vasquez to Los Angeles in exchange for Cartaya.

    Even compared to the low-stakes swap earlier in the offseason that sent Jovani Moran to Boston for Mickey Gasper, this trade is very minor in magnitude. Vasquez has a good arm but is a true lottery ticket and wasn't really on the prospect radar for the Twins. Cartaya's inability to succeed in the high minors has greatly diminished his shine. But it is conspicuous that the Twins now have four catchers on the 40-man roster (4.5 if you want to include Gasper as semi-depth). This depth-building could be setting the stage for a trade, as we'll cover shortly.

     

    Anthony Misiewicz Joins the Bullpen Mix
    Much like Mike Ford earlier this offseason, Misiewicz is a minor-league signing that seems more consequential because of his MLB experience, and his potential ability to fit in at an area of need for the Twins. The scarcity of compelling left-handed options for the Twins bullpen is one of the most pressing questions facing the unit. Misiewicz, a 30-year-old journeyman, instantly becomes the most established pitcher in that mix.

    In 115 MLB innings for five different teams, Misiewicz has posted a 4.67 ERA, but also a 3.92 FIP while averaging a strikeout per inning. He spent most of last year with the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate, where he struck out 29% of opponents. He might not look like the strongest candidate for a big-league role, and he'll need to earn his way onto the 40-man roster, but when the top alternatives as southpaw relievers are Kody Funderburk and Brent Headrick, the addition of Misiewicz is definitely notable.

     

    Twins Add Wave of International Talent to System
    When the international signing period opened on January 15th, the Twins announced a bunch of deals with young players hailing from places such as the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Colombia and Haiti. Twins Daily's J.D. Cameron put together a comprehensive review of this international free agent class, highlighting some key takeaways:

    • Aggressive approach and strategic flips: The Twins maximized their $7.55M bonus pool by signing 24 international prospects. Their proactive and flexible approach saw them flipping outfielder Teilon Serrano and infielder Dencer Diaz from other organizations.
    • Top prospects to watch: Standouts include Santiago Castellanos, a Venezuelan pitcher with a 97 mph fastball, Santiago Leon, a skilled shortstop with a patient offensive approach, and Carlos Taveras, a promising 16-year-old outfielder with power potential and defensive versatility. (The Taveras signing has not been made official so it's unknown whether something is up there.)

    Many years will pass before any of these players factor in for the Twins at the major-league level, but we can expect to see some of their names creep into top prospect lists before long.

    Vázquez, Cease Mentioned in Padres Trade Rumors
    Tangible rumors have been few and far between for the Twins, who've been forced to sit on the sidelines while other clubs have loaded up. As such, the recent rumblings of trade discussions between the Twins and Padres – via reporting from Dan Hayes and Dennis Shin of The Athletic – have garnered plenty of attention. 

    Two specific names mentioned in the story are Christian Vázquez and Dylan Cease. The Twins are known to be shopping Vázquez and his salary, and the Padres are known to need a catcher. It's a make-sense match, outside of the belief that San Diego is in a similar position as the Twins: unable to add payroll. That's where Cease, who is set to make about $13 million in his final year before free agency, could come into play. 

    Cease is a legitimate frontline starter and arguably an ace, so he would clearly require a lot more in return than Vázquez and his negative asset value. Hayes has also emphasized that while scenarios involving Cease have been discussed, such a deal is unlikely to materialize. Nevertheless, the very idea of Minnesota's front office targeting someone like Cease indicates that perhaps they still do have higher-profile aspirations in the late stages of this offseason.

    Arbitration Agreements Bring Clarity to Payroll Picture
    The Twins finalized contracts with all of their arbitration-eligible players, giving us a clear view of the payroll outlook this year. (Well, as clear as it can be.) The projection currently sits around $135 million, which would put them at or slightly above their limit, as we've come to understand it.

    twinsroster12625.png

    Recent quotes from general manager Jeremy Zoll suggest that the front office may not feel obligated to further cut payroll from where it currently stands. That's somewhat encouraging, but it doesn't mean they're able to add at all. At least until they can move away a salary like Vázquez or Chris Paddack or Willi Castro. 

    Derek Falvey told reporters last week that he feels "like it’s the midway point to the offseason. We have a lot more work to do.” Alas, with TwinsFest now behind us and February around the corner, spring training is suddenly less than three weeks away. There isn't that much time left to shake up the status quo, but this front office under Falvey is has definitely shown a penchant for late surprises.


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    I tend to look at this off-season as a success. Falvey didn't bring in washed up veterans to take playing time away from the young players that are already on the team. The saying usually goes, "addition by subtraction", and less washed up veterans makes for a solid addition.

    It's too bad the Twins ceiling couldn't be increased by even 10 mil. There are some good players who can be had for 4-6 mil each though they may not be at the top of the heap. I hate when a team signs a good arm for a few mil but we just sit there.

    We can continue to do nothing and be a team that competes for the Central. Sometimes win it, sometimes collapse. We can continue to look at the holes and hope they someday get filled. Or we can be proactive. SD is known to want more catching. LAD is still looking for pen arms. We are looking for a long-term solution to our catching.  A three team trade could be worked out that fits the needs of these clubs. The base of it would be Rushing comes to MN along with Brandon Valenzuela from SD. Duran goes to LAD. Jeffers  goes to SD. SD gives up some of their other prospects to even all of it out. This trade might be used to fill our LHRP need as well.

    With this move Vazquez could get moved,  without leaving us with Camargo as our backup C. Paddack still gets traded. We now have money to acquire a 1B/COF. Three team trades though can be complicated and I don't know if Falvey/Zoll are in shape to do one with all of the time off they have taken.

    If the long-term catching problem isn't addressed this off season, it should be, what will Falvey do next? Based on his mo he will make a drastic overpay for a declining J.T. Realmuto. I can see it now 3 years for about 55 mil. Or he'll have to sign someone along the lines of Tucker Barnhardt. Jeffers has value now. Take advantage of it. Duran has value now. Take advantage of it. Before they walk and we get nothing.

    6 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

    Since it's been said that the formal sale announcement won't come until the opener at the earliest, I wonder if the agreement could include a small sale price increase to allow the FO to spend more NOW? It could be a spending increase (FA) or taking in more $ in a trade (e,g, Cease).  Not exactly sure how this could work as it would be dependent on where they're at in the negotiation process, but if they are making progress like it sounds, then why wouldn't the new owners want to put a clause in there knowing that they'd be the benefactors of a better season/playoffs?  They'd be spending the current owner's $ now which would be recouped once they close on the deal.  Has this ever been done before?

    Prospective owners have no control over the team or how that money is spent. There is no guarantee an agreement will be reached or that whichever bidding candidate will be successful. Furthermore, there is no guarantee the additional spending benefits the product. If the deal falls through for the time being and the team performs well, the team valuation can skyrocket, pricing the bidders out of the market.

    Until (if ever) the deal closes, the Pohlads are on the hook for the additional spending, and if the additional spending does not improve the team, it's money they just burned. If the Pohlads thought spending more money would have improved the team's performance, they would have spent the money to increase the potential sale value of the team.

    There is no guaranteed reward, but guaranteed risk involved for both parties. The Pohlads want the best sale deal. The buyer wants to pay the least. A few million dollars for roster construction is not relevant.

    As someone wrote, patience is required. And then some! Yes, on paper the Twins have the makings of a good team and a competitive team, but it's also a very fragile roster that doesn't have the necessary depth or top-end weapons to win the division and advance in the playoffs. Hey, healthy permitting and hoping for some bounce-back years from a few of these guys and we might be looking very good by September, and yet I'm not feeling terribly optimistic right now. 

    I still think there's one more shoe to drop.  Maybe it's a Cease trade.  And I'll keep saying  that as long as Alonzo remains unsigned and a Scott Boras client, there might be blood in the water for another middle of the night shocker.

    2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

    I still think there's one more shoe to drop.  Maybe it's a Cease trade.  And I'll keep saying  that as long as Alonzo remains unsigned and a Scott Boras client, there might be blood in the water for another middle of the night shocker.

    Your take is interesting. Do you think Alonso will sign a one year deal for $10-20 million or less? If the Twins were shopping for a free agent first baseman, there were players available for a better price. Christian Walker? The optimism is laudable but it would be far more surprising than the Correa signing.

    52 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

    Your take is interesting. Do you think Alonso will sign a one year deal for $10-20 million or less? If the Twins were shopping for a free agent first baseman, there were players available for a better price. Christian Walker? The optimism is laudable but it would be far more surprising than the Correa signing.

    Not a chance. If he ultimately settles for a 1 year deal it will probably be an effective 1 year deal with player options, looking in structure like the Bellinger contract. Maybe with more drastic declines in salary.

    Something like, perhaps - 

    Year 1: $28 M

    Year 2: $23 M

    Year 3: $18 M

    A clean 1 year deal is not likely and would for sure be more than $25 M. 

     

    16 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

    Not a chance. If he ultimately settles for a 1 year deal it will probably be an effective 1 year deal with player options, looking in structure like the Bellinger contract. Maybe with more drastic declines in salary.

    Something like, perhaps - 

    Year 1: $28 M

    Year 2: $23 M

    Year 3: $18 M

    A clean 1 year deal is not likely and would for sure be more than $25 M. 

     

    Well, I was responding to a comment that posits the Twins as a landing for Alonso, which seems way way out there to me. If the Twins were to have had an interest and a willingness to spend Walker was the better bet.

    I'm not a fan of Pete Alonso but wondered what type of deal dxpavelka envisioned the Twins might see? Good to read what others think always.

    20 hours ago, Brandon said:

    At least we have the Cease rumor to vicariously live through.  Getting him would give us the best rotation in MLB.  That is pretty exciting.  And that’s about it on the transaction side of things. 

    The cost for Cease will be Wallner, SWR and Vasquez - I say no unless an extension is signed 

    11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    Well, I was responding to a comment that posits the Twins as a landing for Alonso, which seems way way out there to me. If the Twins were to have had an interest and a willingness to spend Walker was the better bet.

    I'm not a fan of Pete Alonso but wondered what type of deal dxpavelka envisioned the Twins might see? Good to read what others think always.

    Something quite similar to the first Correa deal.  A one year deal cleverly disguised as a three year deal.  A price point somewhere around $22 million for that one year.  Over the budget?  Sure.  Assuming we actually know what the budget is.  Boras has been creative before.  Never count anything out.

     




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