Time for Accountability

[tobi0040]

Revere was a huge loss last year and probably will continue to be a better player than Hicks et al for another season.

 

Hicks totally blew it all last year. His average was .192 and OBP was .259, yet his OPS was only 50 basis points less than Revere's career average. Certainly you will want to reconsider that.

[S.]

I see this has turned into a Ben Revere thread, but on the topic of accountability, here's another line that I'm beyond sick of hearing:

 

From Phil Miller:

"Asst GM Rob Antony: We planned for higher payroll than $85M, but FA position players signed elsewhere. "We were trying to give money away.""

 

Sorry, Rob, but I don't think anyone believes that BS anymore.

[Dr. Evil]

It's a results thing IMHO. They replaced several coaches last year. At some point I look to the drivers of the ship for accountability. For me that would mean Gardenhire and Ryan need to be replaced. Three years of 90 plus losses and here we are a week from the opener and we are looking at guys like Bartlett potentially rounding out the roster and we are hoarding AAAA players because they are out of options. So, to speak directly to the topic of accountability, my opinion is replace the GM and the Coach.

[LaBombo]

Hicks totally blew it all last year. His average was .192 and OBP was .259, yet his OPS was only 50 basis points less than Revere's career average. Certainly you will want to reconsider that.

wOBA gives Revere a 50 point edge in 2013. That's massive. wRC+ gives Revere a nearly 30 point edge. That's huge. 30 points above Revere is an All Star, so that makes Revere an All Star compared to Hicks last year. Have yet to see a projection that shows Hicks eclipsing Revere in either wOBA or wRC+ this year.

 

So no reconsideration necessary. Will be extremely pleased if Hicks can exceed those modest projections for this season, but have nothing invested in whether he exceeds Revere.

 

However, it will be interesting to watch Reveresie's career, since extreme one or two tool players can have pretty volatile aging curves. He may flame out early as a result, but not in his age 26 season.

[old nurse]

If they thought Tonkin was good, they would not have waited until round 30. That was luck, wasn't it?

 

You want a thread on how great the bullpen is, create one.

 

I'll ask again, is a team that loses more than 90 games for at least three years in a row doing a good or bad job of bringing in players?

 

If it were merely luck there would be no need to have a scouting department. All you would need is a dart board with all the possible names on it.

To answer your other question. If it were only so simple as to say we want 16 new players right now who can play above average and to blame one person when things go wrong.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

wOBA gives Revere a 50 point edge in 2013. That's massive. wRC+ gives Revere a nearly 30 point edge. That's huge. 30 points above Revere is an All Star, so that makes Revere an All Star compared to Hicks last year. Have yet to see a projection that shows Hicks eclipsing Revere in either wOBA or wRC+ this year.

 

So no reconsideration necessary. Will be extremely pleased if Hicks can exceed those modest projections for this season, but have nothing invested in whether he exceeds Revere.

 

However, it will be interesting to watch Reveresie's career, since extreme one or two tool players can have pretty volatile aging curves. He may flame out early as a result, but not in his age 26 season.

 

Reveresie

 

For all his shortcomings, Revere could chase down a liner in the gap as well as anyone. At times it was beauty. And he could steal the next base those few times he did reach base. To bring it back around to the subject of the thread, maybe the Twins wait a year to trade Revere, ease Hicksie into the outfield role (in place of Willingham), and then when the opportunity come to trade Revere, get something other than Worley or May. As long as most of us are second guessing we could also second guess letting Revere go a year early.

[tobi0040]

wOBA gives Revere a 50 point edge in 2013. That's massive. wRC+ gives Revere a nearly 30 point edge. That's huge. 30 points above Revere is an All Star, so that makes Revere an All Star compared to Hicks last year. Have yet to see a projection that shows Hicks eclipsing Revere in either wOBA or wRC+ this year.

 

So no reconsideration necessary. Will be extremely pleased if Hicks can exceed those modest projections for this season, but have nothing invested in whether he exceeds Revere.

 

However, it will be interesting to watch Reveresie's career, since extreme one or two tool players can have pretty volatile aging curves. He may flame out early as a result, but not in his age 26 season.

 

Hicks .192 average, .259 obp. .338 slugging. .597 ops.

 

Revere. .285 average. .324 obp. .330 slugging. .654 ops.

 

So Hicks needs to hit about .225 with a few additional extra base hits this year. you can take the under if you want

[bird]

It's a results thing IMHO. They replaced several coaches last year. At some point I look to the drivers of the ship for accountability. For me that would mean Gardenhire and Ryan need to be replaced. Three years of 90 plus losses and here we are a week from the opener and we are looking at guys like Bartlett potentially rounding out the roster and we are hoarding AAAA players because they are out of options. So, to speak directly to the topic of accountability, my opinion is replace the GM and the Coach.

 

I couldn't agree more. Accountability ultimately at the top, and based on results. Many of us have worked at large organizations, and we have learned the results are not always immediate, usually slower than anticipated, the path is littered with small setbacks, and the journey is filled with moments of doubt about whether it's on course. To look only at the W/L record as the only meaningful gauge of progress is everyone's prerogative. I choose to look at the larger picture, see progress, and question whether a GM change right now would improve the situation. This front office, IMO, is not shirking from accountability.

[tobi0040]

I see this has turned into a Ben Revere thread, but on the topic of accountability, here's another line that I'm beyond sick of hearing:

 

From Phil Miller:

"Asst GM Rob Antony: We planned for higher payroll than $85M, but FA position players signed elsewhere. "We were trying to give money away.""

 

Sorry, Rob, but I don't think anyone believes that BS anymore.

 

I don't buy it either. Cruz signed for 8m. Drew and Moralez are unsigned. Many other guys signed for cheap. AJ would rather play for Boston, okay.what about the rest of these guys?

[Kwak]

Accountibility? For which? The Revere trade? Or the overall team collapse?

 

The Revere trade was caused by the big problem--a bare cupboard of major league quality pitching in or near the majors and and overall dearth of major league talent at all positions.

The Worley failure is little more than a fart in an elevator. The real problem was the bare cupboard of major league talent. The FO was experienced in operating "on the cheap"--because that's what the Twins had to do before "the good years" of the previous decade. They weren't used to spending on free agents (at market rates) to fix problems--so the did what they did before: sift through the discard pile seeking shiny quartz that could masquerade as (Diamond!) for a season. Finally, an acceptance that free agents were required to build competitiveness was accepted (and enough salary came off the books) to do what most teams do to win--buy some talent. But, I do believe that the gauntlet has hit the floor--if there isn't sufficient progress in the two-year time frame of the contracts (since that's what we we told was their length), there will be major surgery. But not before 2015.

[tobi0040]

The real problem was the bare cupboard of major league talent. The FO was experienced in operating "on the cheap"--because that's what the Twins had to do before "the good years" of the previous decade. They weren't used to spending on free agents (at market rates) to fix problems--so the did what they did before: sift through the discard pile seeking shiny quartz that could masquerade as (Diamond!) for a season. Finally, an acceptance that free agents were required to build competitiveness was accepted (and enough salary came off the books) to do what most teams do to win--buy some talent..

 

I could not agree more. No investment in free agents (MLB or MLB ready international) from 2012 and 2013 is the major reason why our win totals have been in the 60's two years in a row and are likely to just break that this year. Even still, free agents at positions where we have holes are and were available (Drew, Morales, and Cruz) but we did not want to pay a market rate.

 

If you go back to 2011, our prospects in the top 100 were Gibson #34(projected 2 or 3 starter), Hicks #45 (still a few years away), Sano #60 (17 years old), and Benson #100. At a time when you win 65 games, are going to lose a ton of veterans and have next to nothing coming up, the bargain bin and wait for prospects strategy was not the appropriate. The front office should be accountable for that.

[Badsmerf]

The Twins have a good reputation still within Major League Baseball.

 

Says the Twins.

[LaBombo]

Hicks .192 average, .259 obp. .338 slugging. .597 ops.

 

Revere. .285 average. .324 obp. .330 slugging. .654 ops.

 

So Hicks needs to hit about .225 with a few additional extra base hits this year. you can take the under if you want

It's come to this. Someone is more indignant about the idea that Aaron Hicks posting a sub-.300 OBP would make him a lesser hitter than Revere than they are about the idea that Aaron Hicks might post a sub-.300 OBP.

 

Hicks hitting .225 will A) almost certainly leave him offensively inferior Revere due to the low OBP and far more importantly, leave the team without anything even remotely resembling a prototypical leadoff hitter. The worst I could do by taking the 'under' is break even, since it was emphatically correct last year. If anything, I would bet the house on .225, since that is where the projections place him.

 

And once again, barring major breakthroughs in walk rate or power, that still makes him a less valuable hitter than the Revere projections.