Sickels: Brian Dozier: Breakthrough???

[Seth Stohs]

Brian Dozier: Breakthrough? - Minor League Ball

 

John Sickels at Minor League Ball wrote a quick blog on Brian Dozier, wondering if he had a breakthrough season and will be able to do it again.

 

I rarely comment there, but I did put the following:

 

The thing I’m most encouraged about is that in late May, something clicked. He made a mechanical change and it worked. After May 27th, he hit .259/.335/.461 (.796) with 30 doubles, 2 triples and 17 home runs.

 

I think that .750-800 OPS is realistic for Dozier. Is that all-star caliber, not quite, but it’s a guy that you can count on for years. Brian Dozier the person is the kind of guy that you want around. If he’s putting up these numbers, he can be a guy that will fit into the roster perfectly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd hesitate to say .800 is in his range -- gotta use a very selective endpoint to get close to that, and he isn't exactly young. Looks his new approach traded some AVG and Ks to maintain/improve his minor league walk rate and SLG.

 

Still, his .726 OPS overall was good for a 100 OPS+. That's not bad at all from a solid defensive 2B (or dare I say, SS).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hoo boy, I remember the all-out war that ensued on BYTO when I suggested that Dozier was capable of being an ".800 OPS, plus-glove defender" up the middle player.

 

I didn't even predict it... I just said he was capable of doing it and there was a near-meltdown on the board.

[ThePuck]

I've been a supporter of Dozier since 2011...I never doubted him even when he had his struggles last season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd hesitate to say .800 is in his range -- gotta use a very selective endpoint to get close to that, and he isn't exactly young. Looks his new approach traded some AVG and Ks to maintain/improve his minor league walk rate and SLG.

 

Still, his .726 OPS overall was good for a 100 OPS+. That's not bad at all from a solid defensive 2B (or dare I say, SS).

 

While it does appear that he has traded some average for power, I'm skeptical of a guy with his speed (not that he's speedy, just that he's not slow) continuing to post a BABIP under .280. I don't expect a huge upswing in BA but .010 or .015 points is certainly possible.

[drivlikejehu]

He hits flyballs - that brings down his BABIP but leads to homers. What worries me is that his HR/FB could drop because I'm not sure how good his raw power is.

 

Given his age and overall track record, I don't think Dozier can really be considered a long-term building block. I do like him as an average to moderately above-average 2B for the next several years.

[Physics Guy]

He hits flyballs - that brings down his BABIP but leads to homers. What worries me is that his HR/FB could drop because I'm not sure how good his raw power is.

 

Given his age and overall track record, I don't think Dozier can really be considered a long-term building block. I do like him as an average to moderately above-average 2B for the next several years.

 

I guess that depends on what you consider a building block. Is he a top player on a playoff team? No, he is not. Can he be a valuable starter for more than a couple of years? I think he is capable of that. He's clearly not at Knoblauch's level, but he appears to be a significant improvement over Lombardozzi and Rivas, two of the longer-serving second basemen during some of the better years for the Twins. Both Lombo and Rivas appear to have been regulars for at least three years. I give Dozier a good chance of doing better than that.

[Shane Wahl]

An average to above average second baseman in this organization post Castillo IS a building block!

[clutterheart]

Dozier is Ok. But I think long term Rosario is the guy to be excited about.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Brian Dozier: Breakthrough? - Minor League Ball

 

John Sickels at Minor League Ball wrote a quick blog on Brian Dozier, wondering if he had a breakthrough season and will be able to do it again.

 

I rarely comment there, but I did put the following:

 

He's sort of like Span in that I think he's a very good player, but only a fringe all-star that might make it once or twice. That's assuming we got the real deal.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Dozier, was quoted on the Twins Jumbotron that if he could have a drink with anybody it would be Jesus Christ:

 

So, here's a little prophecy, edited from the Gospel According to John, chapter 3:

 

"Dozier said, ‘I am not the ^[b future second baseman,’ but, ‘I have been sent ahead of Him.’ ²⁹ He who has the bride is the bridegroom; but the friend of the bridegroom, who stands and hears him, rejoices greatly because of the bridegroom’s voice. So this joy of mine has been made full. ³⁰ He must increase, but I must decrease.'"

 

He, of course, is Eddie Rosario. Sickels mentions scouts who clearly divined that Dozier could make it in the MLB as a utility infielder. Or, perhaps a super utility infielder with some pop in his bat. In two years this will be Brian Dozier's contribution, and that is my prophecy.

 

Amen.

[freshinthehouse]

I still say they should let him get some work in at SS, and hopefully this will lead to us having a Dozier/Rosario middle infield in 2015.

[kab21]

Hoo boy, I remember the all-out war that ensued on BYTO when I suggested that Dozier was capable of being an ".800 OPS, plus-glove defender" up the middle player.

 

I didn't even predict it... I just said he was capable of doing it and there was a near-meltdown on the board.

 

Perhaps you didn't say it but I think the melt down occurred because there were a significant number of people that were making org plans with him as an MLB starter based on a one season breakout at age 24. He was intriguing and a possible starter but no guarantees. Rosario for example is a better prospect but he's also not a guarantee and people continue to make an issue out of Dozier/Rosario at 2B. Let that be an issue when it actually becomes an issue.

 

Of course the opposite is true when people completely write someone off after a bad a season like Dozier had in 2012.