Article: Putting Sano's Power In Perspective

[Willihammer]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2257-Putting-Sano-s-power-in-perspective

[amjgt]

Honestly, I'm fairly familiar with advanced stats, but ISO is one I had never really looked into. Seems like a perfect pair with OBP, to create OPS+ISO, rather than OPS+SLG (which double-counts hits).

 

Now that I think about it, isn't ISO just (SLG%-BA)?

[Danchat]

I spotted Wilkin Ramirez on that list.

Wow, Sano is good. Hope this guy will be our cleanup hitter for the next 10 years.

[The Wise One]

That is nice you did that list. The problem with ISO though is as follows per fangraphs

 

It takes a long time for a player’s ISO to have predictive power going forward; a sample size of 550 plate appearances is recommended to draw any conclusions. In other words, if Albert Pujols has a .550 ISO two weeks into the season, it’s way too early to expect that to continue.

 

There are a quite a few players on the list who only made it up for a cup of coffee.

[kab21]

That is nice you did that list. The problem with ISO though is as follows per fangraphs

 

It takes a long time for a player’s ISO to have predictive power going forward; a sample size of 550 plate appearances is recommended to draw any conclusions. In other words, if Albert Pujols has a .550 ISO two weeks into the season, it’s way too early to expect that to continue.

 

There are a quite a few players on the list who only made it up for a cup of coffee.

 

Sano has 1284 MiLB AB's and a .287 isoP. And his isoP is trending upward so I'm not concerned.

[mudcat14]

The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.

[kab21]

The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.

 

How is this a problem?

 

I see Sano having a historical season when compared vs anyone and everyone that has played in the FSL and EL. It doesn't matter if they are much older, incredibly lucky compared to their careers or one of the best young players in the game.

[mudcat14]

How is this a problem?

 

I see Sano having a historical season when compared vs anyone and everyone that has played in the FSL and EL. It doesn't matter if they are much older, incredibly lucky compared to their careers or one of the best young players in the game.

 

Sorry. Problem was a poor choice of words. My point is the list and stat don't portend any tendency for future success. Ten of the 18 players who are on that list from prior to 2010 have yet to make their MLB debut. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather Miguel be at the top of that list than the bottom. I'm just not convinced that it's a very meaningful stat.

[The Wise One]

Sorry. Problem was a poor choice of words. My point is the list and stat don't portend any tendency for future success. Ten of the 18 players who are on that list from prior to 2010 have yet to make their MLB debut. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather Miguel be at the top of that list than the bottom. I'm just not convinced that it's a very meaningful stat.

ISO means when someone hits the ball the player runs a lot of bases in that at bat. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Oxtung]

ISO means when someone hits the ball the player runs a lot of bases in that at bat. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

Or stand and admire their handy work before making the long, slow trot around the bases.

[jokin]

The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.

 

How many compiled their stats in a single season, and at age 20?

[jokin]

 

There are a quite a few players on the list who only made it up for a cup of coffee.

 

Sano has 1284 MiLB AB's and a .287 isoP. And his isoP is trending upward so I'm not concerned.

 

Not only "not concerned" in the least, I'm incredibly excited about a kid who has only just started to scratch his full potential; barring injury, Sano's career will profoundly impact, and possibly forever change, the Twins landscape- for far, far longer than a single cup of coffee. I still can't believe that there are some out there that don't recognize this.

[The Wise One]

. I still can't believe that there are some out there that don't recognize this.

 

Fans are to be excited about the players for their team. All to soon it spirals down. Expectations will be placed so high that the kid will never be able to match that.

The list was put out. I saw a lot of older players that never went anywhere. I can't believe you would take a comment on the older players as a rip on Sano. Clearly there is a difference there.

[Willihammer]

The problem that I have with this list/stat is, what does it matter? In fairness many of the 40 or so names on that list are still working their way up, but many others haven't and won't ever play in a MLB game.

 

That's a fair question and I agree that the leaderboard here, sorted by ISO without respect to age, isn't all that impressive. I guess I was a little fixated on the fact that Sano's ISO ranked first but that doesn't provide a lot of context.

 

Here is a top-50 sorted first by age and then by descending ISO. It also brings Buxton into the picture:

 

http://i.imgur.com/V9zZcsf.png

 

Maybe that's a better way to look at it.

[jokin]

Fans are to be excited about the players for their team. All to soon it spirals down. Expectations will be placed so high that the kid will never be able to match that.

The list was put out. I saw a lot of older players that never went anywhere. I can't believe you would take a comment on the older players as a rip on Sano. Clearly there is a difference there.

 

I'm sorry, but I'm not following your line of thinking here. Please check on the fine, hard work that Willihammer is doing in the post previous to mine, which brings this whole discussion into the proper focus and context. These guys are not only matching, surpassing and/or completely outclassing their competitive peers, they are doing it against "peer" players who are generally 4-5 years older than they are.

[mudcat14]

In case I failed to make it clear, my ho-hum attitude towards the list that launched this thread in no way dampens my enthusiasm over the future of Miguel Sano. I've been closely following the Twins since the late sixties, and can't remember ever being so excited about ANY prospects as I am with Sano & Buxton. Mauer was close, but he never projected the all-around talents of Buxton, or the power of Sano. Let's face it. Not only do chicks dig the long ball, but so do long-suffering, middle-aged Twins fans.

[kab21]

Sorry. Problem was a poor choice of words. My point is the list and stat don't portend any tendency for future success. Ten of the 18 players who are on that list from prior to 2010 have yet to make their MLB debut. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather Miguel be at the top of that list than the bottom. I'm just not convinced that it's a very meaningful stat.

 

I think it's incredibly meaningful. It shows just how incredible Sano's season is. He is tops on the list that includes anyone and everyone.

 

Maybe you don't like isoP but a similar list of pretty much any stat that included all players (including older players) would show a similar list of flameouts and AAAA all-stars.