Article: Fishing for the Biggest Marlin

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2216-Fishing-for-the-Biggest-Marlin

[Twins Daily Admin]

It wouldn't take Sano or Buxton, IMHO. I might take Rosario. Or Hicks. I'd be loathe to trade away any pitching.

[troyhobbs]

Not sure what Miami's needs are but maybe a Plouffe or Harrison, Rosario deal would do...? Or Hicks and 1 of those 3 with a couple more throw ins? I'd hate to see Rosario go but w Dozier playing well and Polanco coming up we could probably afford to lose him especially for a guy like Stanton.

[louisschaff]

It would take a minimum of something like Sano, Rosario, Stewart and Berrios. I wouldn't be interested in making a deal like this. By 2015 (the earliest the Twins will have a shot at the division) Sano could be similar in production to Stanton and cheaper.

[ThePuck]

It would take a minimum of something like Sano, Rosario, Stewart and Berrios. I wouldn't be interested in making a deal like this. By 2015 (the earliest the Twins will have a shot at the division) Sano could be similar in production to Stanton and cheaper.

 

I highly doubt it would cost all four of those guys. Sano and any pitching prospect that's available for trade would probably be required (Sano/Meyer for example) and maybe another lower prospect on top...but it wouldn't take Sano, Rosario, Berrios and Stewart (who isn't even tradeable right now).

[Brock Beauchamp]

I highly doubt it would cost all four of those guys. Sano and any pitching prospect that's available for trade would probably be required (Sano/Meyer for example) and maybe another lower prospect on top...but it wouldn't take Sano, Rosario, Berrios and Stewart (who isn't even tradeable right now).

 

I'm not sure 1923 Babe Ruth would command those four players.

[Monkeypaws]

I wasn't aware outfield was a need for the Twins.

 

I would be more interested in throwing prospects for a starting pitcher, and I wouldn't include Sano or Buxton in any deal right now.

[jimbo92107]

Since the Twins are looking to peak somewhere around five years from now, 23-yr old Stanton would be about 28, right about at his own peak. Sounds good, but would the Twins really need him? Right now they're looking at a logjam of talent in the outfield. Buxton will be in CF for the next ten years starting either next year or just after. Arcia will be in RF, Hicks in LF. Then you've got a few other guys coming up through the minors, like Max Kepler and Adam Walker.

 

In fact, with all the talent in the Twins system, the team should forget about acquiring guys like Stanton and focus on improving their training facilities and getting the best coaches available. Especially if the Pohlads want to continue to be cheapskates, then the cheapest way to ensure this franchise is competitive is to keep it stocked with the best coaches and draft scouts, then be ready to trade away your best players before they become eligible for arbitration.

[John Bonnes]

I'm trying to come up with a similar player traded at a similar point in their career, when they were still that cheap, and traded for a prospect. I'm blanking. Anyone else got something?

[ashbury]

I'm trying to come up with a similar player traded at a similar point in their career, when they were still that cheap, and traded for a prospect. I'm blanking. Anyone else got something?

 

Well, Babe Ruth, already mentioned, was traded at age 24. (OK, sold, not for a prospect.) But, you mean in the modern era of salaries controlled by the CBA. I'll keep thinking. Palmeiro?

[Ctwink]

I just did a Google search of "big trades" and "best young baseball players traded" and I could find none that involved the young stud (similar to Stanton) traded for prospects. Most of them were like the Smoltz or Pedro trades - a prospect that turned into a stud traded for another player who was the "name" guy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I just don't see this happening. The Twins are fairly set in the OF and trading away their top 3B prospect to add another outfielder seems strange. Don't get me wrong, an OF of Buxton, Stanton, Arcia makes me drool, but I doubt that the Marlins would do this for a Hicks, Walker, Berrios swap, which is about all I'd personally be willing to give for him. If Sano was being blocked by an all star 3B, that might make more sense, but Sano is being blocked by Plouffe, who's a wildcard in his own right.

[ashbury]

Trades of someone like Stanton are rare enough that an exact match may be difficult. There have been young established players traded for perceived or rumored "character" reasons. Gary Sheffield, Garry Templeton, Colby Rasmus are three that come to mind - Shef was traded twice for prospects before he was 25, Templeton was traded for Ozzie Smith before he became OZZIE SMITH, Rasmus wasn't anywhere close to the level of Stanton.

[AROG]

If this were to happen. I think the Marlins would want, Arcia, Rosario, Morales and Jorge. For a young stud like Stanton, who rival GM's say is a good 5-6 hitter not a true 3 or 4 because of average and strikeouts a package like this doesn't upset me too much. I really like what we have in Arcia, he is younger then Stanton and I think the Marlins would take an OF that is ready to step in from the opposite side of the plate as well as two AA players, Rosario that is close to ready and Morales that may take a couple years. And then a young, high upside pitcher. We would get the right handed power bat we need to replace Willingham, have room in the outfield, keep Hicks and our top pitching prospects. This is a trade I would make.

[Dave T]

The Twins are missing a front-of-the-rotation guy. Although I hate the Wil Meyers for Shields trade, Kansas City had the right idea. I'd be willing to trade a couple of blue chip position player prospects for a blue chip pitching prospect. Why trade for Stanton when Sano is two years away?

[markos]

A similar comparison has to be the Miguel Cabrera trade back in 2007. According to Baseball-Reference:

 

Traded by the Florida Marlins with Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers for Dallas Trahern (minors), Burke Badenhop, Frankie De La Cruz, Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and Mike Rabelo.

It is a little hard to calculate the exact value for just Cabrera because Willis and Cabrera were bundled together, but if I recall correctly Willis was thrown in as a salary purge.

 

It isn't an apples-to-apples comparison, as Cabrera just finished his age-24 season (Stanton is a year younger), and was a couple years closer to free agency than Stanton would be. Still, Maybin and Miller were both top-10 Prospects, though Miller had already graduated to the majors by the time of the trade. According to Baseball America, de la Cruz was the #6 prospect in their system, while Trahern was #8.

 

Using this as a baseline, a similar package (based on similar team-relative prospect rankings) for the Twins would be Sano, Buxton, Berrios and Kepler.

[louisschaff]

Miguel Cabrera was traded with 2 years of control left. He fetched 2 guys that were ranked overall top 10 prospects 9 months before he was traded. Stanton has one extra year of control left but might be viewed as slightly less of a hitter than Cabrera was at the time.

[louisschaff]

Markos beat me to it!

[AROG]

You also have to remember that Dontrelle was a stud pitcher at the time. He was only traded with one year on his salary (I could be wrong, but that is my memory of the event) so was less of a multiple year option, but was a front line starter.

 

• Miguel Cabrera (2003–2007) — Cabrera debuted with the Marlins in 2003 and hit a game-winning home run in his first game against the Tampa Bay Rays. He was a key factor to the Marlins' 2003 World Series run and the ballclub's primary power hitter during his tenure, hitting 138 home runs and driving in 523 in five seasons. Cabrera went to four All-Star games and won a pair of Silver Slugger awards.
  
• Dontrelle Willis (2003–2007) — The "D-Train" was named the National League Rookie of the Year in 2003 and showcased his remarkable (for a pitcher) hitting ability by going 3-for-3 with a triple while scoring a run during Game 4 of the 2003 National League Division Series, which the Marlins won 7–6 over the San Francisco Giants to advance to the NL Championship Series. Willis holds many Marlins pitching records including single season victories (22), complete games (15), shutouts (8), as well as being second in innings pitched (1,022 ⅔)
  

Miguel Cabrera had the same HR power, averaging over 30HR per 162 games his last 4 seasons with Miami but had a BA of almost 80 points higher over their times in FL. Also, Miggy was a 3B so that made him more valuable.

 

All in all, I think we could get Stanton for the guys I listed above, possibly substituting another young pitcher for Morales.

[boomerb5]

Sammy Sosa was traded early in his career...Sox to Cubs for George Bell. Not quite as established as Stanton, but it's as close as I can think of.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not to pick nits, but Stanton is not the biggest Marlin. Fernandez fits the Twin's needs a bit more, and unfortunately, Stanton will be cheap in comparison.

[jokin]

Since the Twins are looking to peak somewhere around five years from now, 23-yr old Stanton would be about 28, right about at his own peak. Sounds good, but would the Twins really need him? Right now they're looking at a logjam of talent in the outfield. Buxton will be in CF for the next ten years starting either next year or just after. Arcia will be in RF, Hicks in LF. Then you've got a few other guys coming up through the minors, like Max Kepler and Adam Walker.

 

In fact, with all the talent in the Twins system, the team should forget about acquiring guys like Stanton and focus on improving their training facilities and getting the best coaches available. Especially if the Pohlads want to continue to be cheapskates, then the cheapest way to ensure this franchise is competitive is to keep it stocked with the best coaches and draft scouts, then be ready to trade away your best players before they become eligible for arbitration.

 

The OF logjam is why you trade some of that surplus for Stanton. It's a win-win, as certainly the Marlins are looking to bolster the OF with the departure of Stanton. Arcia looks destined to be a Twins DH- not RF, while in Miami, he would instantly be the best offensive player playing Left or Right (throw Kepler or Walker in the deal to help Miami hedge their bet) . The Twins need a strong defensive OF to compete- what with the "logjam" of PTC starting pitching for the forseeable future. Put Stanton in RF, Hicks in LF and Buxton in CF and I challenge anyone to come up with a better defensive OF in all of MLB, plus with 2 elite bats.

[jokin]

Not to pick nits, but Stanton is not the biggest Marlin. Fernandez fits the Twin's needs a bit more, and unfortunately, Stanton will be cheap in comparison.

 

And even more unfortunately, Fernandez is untouchable. The Marlins are turning the page on their recent past, Stanton is cheap relative to Fernandez for a number of reasons, especially the fact that the Marlins are willing sellers of Stanton's services.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I think most rival GMs should remain skeptical whether the asking price is worth Stanton. His strikeout and batting average have been noted in this thread but no one has brought up his injury history. He has had injury concerns ever since he has been called up including this year. How much is the huge power bat worth with that combination of flaws?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think most rival GMs should remain skeptical whether the asking price is worth Stanton. His strikeout and batting average have been noted in this thread but no one has brought up his injury history. He has had injury concerns ever since he has been called up including this year. How much is the huge power bat worth with that combination of flaws?

 

This too. I don't see it happening. I'd be interested in Fernandez simply because he fills a position of need, but OF is not a place where the Twins need guys. If they'd take Hicks and Harrison for him, yeah, I'd probably do it, but I don't think it's wise for the Twins to be creating voids at positions of weakness in order to get a guy that fills a position of strength.

[ThePuck]

We assume we have OF covered...but right now, do we know FOR SURE our guys will be quality MLB OFs any time soon?

[diehardtwinsfan]

We assume we have OF covered...but right now, do we know FOR SURE our guys will be quality MLB OFs any time soon?

 

You are right, we don't. But between the guys we have, there are options even if some of them turn out. On the other hand, we don't have much in terms of pitching prospects or middle infield help, so let's not deal from a position of weakness to get some sort of "sure thing" at a position of strength. It makes no sense, and it's the kind of trade that could end the next wave rather quick.