2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

[drjim]

Well, we had just won 94 games when the Hardball Times and Baseball America rankings came out before the 2011 season. Reigning division winner and high ranking farm system before the 2011 season, or worst record in baseball last year and #1 farm system now. Which is better?

 

And you emphasized the farm system rankings in your post when talking about shambles...because that's all you brought up when talking about it being better.

 

I was talking about farm systems because we were discussing the need to develop talent because so little is available via free agency.

 

And I noticed you cited the record before 2011 instead of after, which was of course when Ryan took over. But you prove the point a little - the franchise had just collapsed.

[TheLeviathan]

Oh yay! Another payroll discussion!

 

I, for one, am shocked that a discussion of team finances and payroll came up in a topic about free agency this offseason.

 

Shocked. I came to this thread expecting a discussion on Sano's batting stance and was just blown away.:shoot:

[drjim]

Oh yay! Another payroll discussion!

 

Payroll? I'm talking about how the franchise has changed in the past two years.

[cmb0252]

I, for one, am shocked that a discussion of team finances and payroll came up in a topic about free agency this offseason.

 

Shocked. I came to this thread expecting a discussion on Sano's batting stance and was just blown away.:shoot:

 

While the discussion of payroll is obviously a part you figured someone would actually discuss the names on the list. Which no one has.

[ThePuck]

I was talking about farm systems because we were discussing the need to develop talent because so little is available via free agency.

 

And I noticed you cited the record before 2011 instead of after, which was of course when Ryan took over. But you prove the point a little - the franchise had just collapsed.

 

Yeah, I pointed out the record before 2011 happened because The Hardball Times and Baseball America ranking came out....before the 2011 season. You mentioned 2011 and emphasized farm system rankings, so was I supposed to use 2012 prospect ranking when you pointed out 2011?

[jay]

I think we've established the arguments on payroll.

 

What do you guys think about the list of free agents in the OP? Who would be good targets?

[snepp]

Oh yay! Another payroll discussion!

 

TD Comment Policy #6 says, "feel free to move along if you don't like it."

[ThePuck]

When Ryan took back over, we had just come off ONE bad season...a season played by a team consisting mostly of players we got during his first stint with us. Smith had, at that time, only been GM for three drafts ('08-10). The farm system was already getting better under Smith, but most of his guys hadn't even stepped on the field in 2011, had they?

[TheLeviathan]

While the discussion of payroll is obviously a part you figured someone would actually discuss the names on the list. Which no one has.

 

I disagree...I mentioned Josh Johnson and how putrid he's been.

 

Just ask my fantasy team.

[cmb0252]

TD Comment Policy #6 says, "feel free to move along if you don't like it."

 

Move along to where? A different site? Every other thread has been railroaded into the same dumb conversation. I posted this thread/link so people can talk about their preference in the up coming FAs. Obviously payroll, Ryan's player selection, and history of signings come into it but they aren't the purpose of the thread. I would argue that people who aren't even trying to talk about the main purpose of a thread should "move along".

[drjim]

Yeah, I pointed out the record before 2011 happened because The Hardball Times and Baseball America ranking came out....before the 2011 season. You mentioned 2011 and emphasized farm system rankings, so was I supposed to use 2012 prospect ranking when you pointed out 2011?

 

I guess I assumed people would have understood the comparison was between when Ryan took over to the current condition. I'll be more clear.

[Winston Smith]

I think we've established the arguments on payroll.

 

What do you guys think about the list of free agents in the OP? Who would be good targets?

 

I think it's a fat chance that Ryan would spend the money it would take to get any of these guys listed.

I can see him going after Hughes, Kazmir or Vargas type guys if the price is right.

There just isn't anything in Terry Ryan's history to make me think he'll be a player in the higher priced guys.

As Jim Pohlad said they could go to 50-52% of revenue which is about 212m. So with about 40m in contracts for next yr 66 mill could buy a lot of free agents.

[drjim]

Move along to where? A different site? Every other thread has been railroaded into the same dumb conversation. I posted this thread/link so people can talk about their preference in the up coming FAs. Obviously payroll, Ryan's player selection, and history of signings come into it but they aren't the purpose of the thread. I would argue that people who aren't even trying to talk about the main purpose of a thread should "move along".

 

It is a bad ten for the Twins. Players are at the wrong position and the old pitchers won't go to a rebuilding team.

 

Santana is the best option and I wouldn't trust him on a long term deal.

[Pitz]

I think Ervin Santana would be a solid target for the Twins. However, he is very unlikely to be signed by the Twins for two reasons.

1) He will likely be overpaid coming off a career year.

2) He would likely cost them a second round pick.

 

It is possible, though, that reason 2 prevents reason 1 to some extent as teams seemed hesitant to give up draft picks this past off season (i.e. Lohse, Bourne).

[cmb0252]

I have not been on the Josh Johnson bandwagon for awhile because of his likely cost, injury history, and cost of a draft pick next year. Because of his injury history and inconsistent performance this year the articles author suggests, " a qualifying offer appears increasingly unlikely even though the Jays are all about draft pick compensation."

 

Ryan said last off season he couldn't give money away. If Ryan offers him a quality offer the fact JJ is from Minnesota and still has family here might help sign him.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd shell out the very risky dollars it would take on Johnson and Lincecum and hope that one of the two of them finds their old self.

[cmb0252]

I think it's a fat chance that Ryan would spend the money it would take to get any of these guys listed.

I can see him going after Hughes, Kazmir or Vargas type guys if the price is right.

There just isn't anything in Terry Ryan's history to make me think he'll be a player in the higher priced guys.

As Jim Pohlad said they could go to 50-52% of revenue which is about 212m. So with about 40m in contracts for next yr 66 mill could buy a lot of free agents.

 

Hughes and Vargas would be solid targets who could make sense. They won't require giant contracts to sign and would obviously be upgrades.

[TheLeviathan]

Ryan said last off season he couldn't give money away. If Ryan offers him a quality offer the fact JJ is from Minnesota and still has family here might help sign him.

 

Can we please just do away with this notion now? Johnson may indeed come here and his ties may indeed help that, but there is always the implication that he'll come cheaper or at a less risky price.

 

The price is always going to be too steep and too risky if you're looking for "safe" deals. It's more about who you choose to roll the dice with.

[drjim]

I'd shell out the very risky dollars it would take on Johnson and Lincecum and hope that one of the two of them finds their old self.

 

I think a team goes big on Lincecum, I wouldn't want it to be the Twins. I could get behind Johnson depending on the injury situation at the end of the year.

[cmb0252]

Can we please just do away with this notion now? Johnson may indeed come here and his ties may indeed help that, but there is always the implication that he'll come cheaper or at a less risky price.

 

The price is always going to be too steep and too risky if you're looking for "safe" deals. It's more about who you choose to roll the dice with.

 

I never suggested he would come cheap. I don't think he will sign cheap.I said if Ryan offers him a quality offer, which suggests one on par with what other teams are offering, he might actually take Ryan's money.

[drjim]

Hughes and Vargas would be solid targets who could make sense. They won't require giant contracts to sign and would obviously be upgrades.

 

I think this is exactly the type of player the Twins will sign and it is a good thing. They are not top 10 but are in the next tier.

[ThePuck]

I guess I assumed people would have understood the comparison was between when Ryan took over to the current condition. I'll be more clear.

 

Well, I wasn't the only one who wasn't quite following your argument.

 

Let's look at it again. When Smith took over, the farm system was bad and we had just had a losing record after having a great season the season before. The farm system got much better under Smith while having a winning record in his first three seasons, two being division titles. Then the team had one horrible season with mostly players from Ryan's farm system and he got replaced. Ryan took over a team with a one horrible season but with a very good farm system. We proceeded to have another horrible season under Ryan followed by another horrible season under Ryan and, under Ryan, that very good farm system got better, in part, because of players were were able to get because of being so bad in 2011 and 2012. Now we wait for the talent to come up...mostly gotten under Smith's time.

 

Sound fair? Or rather, sound accurate?

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Phil Hughes could turn out to be a steal in Target Field...

[drjim]

Well, I wasn't the only one who wasn't quite following your argument.

 

Let's look at it again. When Smith took over, the farm system was bad and we had just had a losing record after having a great season the season before. The farm system got much better under Smith while having a winning record in his first three seasons, two being division titles. Then the team had one horrible season with mostly players from Ryan's farm system and he got replaced. Ryan took over a team with a one horrible season but with a very good farm system. We proceeded to have another horrible season under Ryan followed by another horrible season under Ryan and, under Ryan, that very good farm system got better, in part, because of players were were able to get because of being so bad in 2011 and 2012. Now we wait for the talent to come up...mostly gotten under Smith's time.

 

Sound fair? Or rather, sound accurate?

 

My overall take is that several aspects of the organization were slipping which ultimately culminated in the collapse of 2011. Part of this was what Ryan left but it was moreso mismanagement of assets under Smith. The mlb talent fully bottomed out in 2012 and now there is a new stability up and down the organization the past couple of years. It didn't translate much to the majors this year as far as record is concerned but will as soon as next season.

 

I think the farm system is one aspect of this, albeit a critical one going forward.

[Siehbiscuit]

I think Ryan's greatest strength is that he is a scout at heart. That is great for finding talent around the minors (in other people's system) or for the draft-eligible guys. But when it comes to assembling a major league team I think that is an obvious weakness. He seems like he is the last one to the dance time after time. He only wants to take safe, low-risk players in FA, when sometimes a franchise needs to roll the dice and hope everything works out. Too many Slowey, Blackburn, Swarzak, Correia, etc, etc, etc type of pitchers. They are usually pretty durable, but THEY SUCK!!! Take a chance. Would a 1 year deal for Shawn Marcum have been a worse deal than the 2 year deal Correia is on? Who cares in the middle of a(nother) 90+ loss season. Take some chances.

 

I hope Brian Cashman gets fired and the Twins snatch him up!

[big dog]

I hope Brian Cashman gets fired and the Twins snatch him up!

 

The Twins' payroll is what Cashman uses as tip money. He might come here if he wants to try something totally different, but I can't imagine it happening. Epstein went to the Cubs because they suck but they burn money for heat. The Pohlads? Naw.

 

I will be very disappointed if the Twins don't find a mid-level or better free agent, ideally two, that can help this team. However, that list that starts the thread is a harsh dose of reality.

[jay]

Ryan said last off season he couldn't give money away. If Ryan offers him a quality offer the fact JJ is from Minnesota and still has family here might help sign him.

 

Can we please just do away with this notion now? Johnson may indeed come here and his ties may indeed help that, but there is always the implication that he'll come cheaper or at a less risky price.

 

I'd be happy with signing JJ. I think folks focus on his ties more so due to the first quote here -- that Ryan couldn't give money away. Sure, a ridiculous offer might do it, but then you're the Royals signing Gil Meche to a 5/$55 deal. The ties may be an edge to get him to consider coming here.

 

I think a key point the payroll hawks miss on is that free agents are just that, free. Most of them don't want to come to a loser. The overwhelming focus on free agent SPs last offseason ignores that Greinke maybe would have come here (but Dodgers weren't going to be outbid), Sanchez wouldn't have (resigned with Tigers to win despite plenty of interest elsewhere), Lohse and Liriano weren't likely, Kuroda and Pettitte definitely weren't, and who knows about others.

 

Best case, there were about 8 guys out there who were an upgrade over even Correia (Jackson, Dempster, Guthrie, McCarthy, Blanton, Haren, Saunders, Feldman). Dempster and Haren both went for winners. Guthrie resigned. Saunders turned down more money from the Twins to sign in Seattle. It's not hard to whittle the list down pretty far.

 

I wanted the Twins to get better pitching and the rumors say they were in on some of them, but we don't know each player's whims. I understand the (thoroughly voiced) frustration that the Twins didn't spend more money and while I certainly don't look to defend that, it's also not hard to put perspective on it and see scenarios where it just wasn't even likely for them to get a decent FA without a massive overspend.

[TheLeviathan]

I understand the (thoroughly voiced) frustration that the Twins didn't spend more money and while I certainly don't look to defend that, it's also not hard to put perspective on it and see scenarios where it just wasn't even likely for them to get a decent FA without a massive overspend.

 

Here's the part of that you missed. Cmb said he didn't like the price and the injury history with JJ. How do his local ties eliminate either of these issues?

 

They don't, yet people continue to say the first (I don't like....) but then say "but maybe since he's from here....." and the implication is very clear. I don't deny his ties may help the Twins avoid wildly overspending to sign him. What I deny is that his ties here are going to make the contract he may command less risky. Maybe we get lucky and he gets the Marcum treatment and doesn't command a long-term contract.

 

Unfortunately, that scenario doesn't exactly encourage me from experience either. That's the real problem no matter what FAs we examine for being a good fit.

[ThePuck]

I'd be happy with signing JJ. I think folks focus on his ties more so due to the first quote here -- that Ryan couldn't give money away. Sure, a ridiculous offer might do it, but then you're the Royals signing Gil Meche to a 5/$55 deal. The ties may be an edge to get him to consider coming here.

 

I think a key point the payroll hawks miss on is that free agents are just that, free. Most of them don't want to come to a loser. The overwhelming focus on free agent SPs last offseason ignores that Greinke maybe would have come here (but Dodgers weren't going to be outbid), Sanchez wouldn't have (resigned with Tigers to win despite plenty of interest elsewhere), Lohse and Liriano weren't likely, Kuroda and Pettitte definitely weren't, and who knows about others.

 

Best case, there were about 8 guys out there who were an upgrade over even Correia (Jackson, Dempster, Guthrie, McCarthy, Blanton, Haren, Saunders, Feldman). Dempster and Haren both went for winners. Guthrie resigned. Saunders turned down more money from the Twins to sign in Seattle. It's not hard to whittle the list down pretty far.

 

I wanted the Twins to get better pitching and the rumors say they were in on some of them, but we don't know each player's whims. I understand the (thoroughly voiced) frustration that the Twins didn't spend more money and while I certainly don't look to defend that, it's also not hard to put perspective on it and see scenarios where it just wasn't even likely for them to get a decent FA without a massive overspend.

 

Yeah, I have a hard time believing that just because we have been bad for a year or two, that washes away a decade of competitiveness in the eyes of free agents. People are talking as if we were the Pirates or KC with a couple decades or so of horrible ball. It's a convenient excuse for those defending Ryan though...

[The Wise One]

Yeah, I have a hard time believing that just because we have been bad for a year or two, that washes away a decade of competitiveness in the eyes of free agents. People are talking as if we were the Pirates or KC with a couple decades or so of horrible ball. It's a convenient excuse for those defending Ryan though...

 

I would assume that any free agent would know how the team has performed recently and who is currently on the team. They would also be smart enough to know who was on the teams that were competitive are pretty much no longer there. It would be the responsibity of the team to sell the free agent on the prospects of the team's future talent, potential of the players on the big league squad.

It is not defending Ryan to say the free agent is more likely to go to a winning team. It is a statement of obserable behavior of athletes. You can dismiss it, but itwinning is a huge factor in athlete's choices.