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Posted

If you guessed Justin Morneau you'd be correct. A couple of months ago I posted about his weird splits home and away this year but thought it was probably small sample size. However as the season has progressed the difference has become glaring. After today's game Morneau's home Ops is about 50 points higher than Joe Mauer's. Morneau's been rightly criticized this year for his performance vs contract, however it's been on the road that the criticizism is justified. His current away split in 53 games is

 

Ave OBP Slugging OPS

.218 .288 .292 .580

 

which is frankly horrid. However his home split in 46 games is

 

Ave OBP Slugging OPS

.315 .364 .525 .889

 

which leads all Twins by a significant amount. The question then becomes why? It's beyond small sample size at this point and has trended this way since the beginning of the season. Any thoughts or theories as to why?

Posted (edited)

53 + 46 = 99 total games which is over 61 percent of the season. That's not a small sample size. That's unless you consider almost 2/3rds of a season a small sample size for the season.

Edited by robbie111
Posted

That is quite a disparity. If you dig a little deeper he is failing within the AL Central.

At Chicago he's batting .000 (0 for 7)

At Cleveland he's .200 (4 for 20)

At Kansas City he's .250 (6 for 24)

At Detroit he's .185 (5 for 27)

 

That's a total BA within the AL Central (away games) of .192

 

Here's his splits from last year:

Home .252/.329/.399

Away .283/.338/.482

 

I guess it's just a weird anomaly. Let's see what his splits look like in September.

Posted (edited)

The trend continues as Justin is now up to

 

.320 ave, .368 obp, .536 slugging, and .905 OPS at home.

Edited by robbie111
Posted

One theory: I know Justin is on some newfangled gluten free and maybe also a vegan(?) diet. Maybe he struggles to find the right sort of foods on the road?

Posted
One theory: I know Justin is on some newfangled gluten free and maybe also a vegan(?) diet. Maybe he struggles to find the right sort of foods on the road?

I would hope the Twins would assist with that, if that's the case.

Posted
One theory: I know Justin is on some newfangled gluten free and maybe also a vegan(?) diet. Maybe he struggles to find the right sort of foods on the road?

 

I'm thinking the diet is positively boosted by the now settled concrete.

Posted
I would hope the Twins would assist with that, if that's the case.

 

Everyone knows Chicago restaurants only serve sausages and they only serve them in gluten filled buns.

Posted

On sample size...

 

The first offensive numbers to stabilize are strike out and walk rate.

 

Stats like OPS for an individual player stabilize at 500 plate appearances. That isn't very helpful when looking at splits. It would take a while to get that many plate appearances into each side of the split.

 

If anyone is interested...

 

525,600 Minutes: How Do You Measure a Player in a Year? | FanGraphs Baseball

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