Brandon Lowe receives qualifying offer from Pirates

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just adding this as a Twins adjacent post with qualifying offers starting to come in. We'll see what the Twins do with Jeffers in the next hour or so.

To me, this takes Lowe out of the running to add him as a free agent.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/pirates-brandon-lowe-qualifying-offer

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

To me, this takes Lowe out of the running to add him as a free agent.

The Twins give up their 3rd highest pick. That would be somewhere around #85 overall. Brandon Lowe is one of the top 10 players ever selected in the 80-90 range. Expected value is in the 1-2 WAR range. Spencer Steer and Brian Duensing are the best Twins picks in that round in the past 25 years.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins give up their 3rd highest pick. That would be somewhere around #85 overall. Brandon Lowe is one of the top 10 players ever selected in the 80-90 range. Expected value is in the 1-2 WAR range.

Is it still their 3rd pick IF they offer Jeffers the QO and he rejects it and then signs with another team netting us a pick for Jeffers after comp round A? Because currently they have their 1st pick which is at #11 (subject to the lottery) and a comp round A pick which is probably around pick #35. IF they also get a pick for Jeffers (which would be around pick #40 or so) would THAT be the one to give up to sign a player who also rejected the QO? Or would it be the one you mention?

Either way, I don't know if someone already in their 30's with his level of chase is who I would sign to lose a pick for. I'd be open to being wrong.

[GP830]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Is it still their 3rd pick IF they offer Jeffers the QO and he rejects it and then signs with another team netting us a pick for Jeffers after comp round A? Because currently they have their 1st pick which is at #11 (subject to the lottery) and a comp round A pick which is probably around pick #35. IF they also get a pick for Jeffers (which would be around pick #40 or so) would THAT be the one to give up to sign a player who also rejected the QO? Or would it be the one you mention?

Either way, I don't know if someone already in their 30's with his level of chase is who I would sign to lose a pick for. I'd be open to being wrong.

I hadn't considered how having a QO offer out there, might effect a team's efforts at perhaps securing another QO eligible player. For instance, if signing Lowe loses them their *roughly* second or third pick, but losing Jeffers garner's them that pick back, I suppose it's sort of negligent. Interesting how they can play those things against each other in a way.

[Whammy]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Is it still their 3rd pick IF they offer Jeffers the QO and he rejects it and then signs with another team netting us a pick for Jeffers after comp round A? Because currently they have their 1st pick which is at #11 (subject to the lottery) and a comp round A pick which is probably around pick #35. IF they also get a pick for Jeffers (which would be around pick #40 or so) would THAT be the one to give up to sign a player who also rejected the QO? Or would it be the one you mention?

Either way, I don't know if someone already in their 30's with his level of chase is who I would sign to lose a pick for. I'd be open to being wrong.

Seems like a good reason to trade that Comp A pick ASAP.

I've got NO PROBLEM gaming that system :) 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 minutes ago, Whammy said:

Seems like a good reason to trade that Comp A pick ASAP.

I've got NO PROBLEM gaming that system :) 

So @Jamie Cameronlet me know that if the twins signed a player who rejected their qo, it wouldn’t be where they would lose any of their first 3 picks if they also get a pick for another team signing Jeffers. So regardless it’ll be their 2nd round pick they lose if they sign someone, which that pick is probably in the 80’s. Makes me more open to the idea 

[Chembry]

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just adding this as a Twins adjacent post with qualifying offers starting to come in. We'll see what the Twins do with Jeffers in the next hour or so.

To me, this takes Lowe out of the running to add him as a free agent.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/pirates-brandon-lowe-qualifying-offer

I know several around here want the Twins to sign Jake Bauers as well, but he was also extended the QO.

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, Chembry said:

I know several around here want the Twins to sign Jake Bauers as well, but he was also extended the QO.

Gotta say, it’s really close for me to say he is the only one I’d be ok signing out of the qo crowd. His bat in the middle of the lineup is exactly what we need, and Lowe chases a bit more than I would love. 

[Whammy]

7 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

So @Jamie Cameronlet me know that if the twins signed a player who rejected their qo, it wouldn’t be where they would lose any of their first 3 picks if they also get a pick for another team signing Jeffers. So regardless it’ll be their 2nd round pick they lose if they sign someone, which that pick is probably in the 80’s. Makes me more open to the idea 

Well crap. Gaming the system sounded way more fun.

[Whammy]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Gotta say, it’s really close for me to say he is the only one I’d be ok signing out of the qo crowd. His bat in the middle of the lineup is exactly what we need, and Lowe chases a bit more than I would love. 

I just can't get over the fact that Bauers had a 3.3 WAR season in 2026, which raised his career WAR to +2.0.

Lowe on the other hand has 5.4 WAR in 2026 which raised his career WAR to 23.1.

Is Bauers no longer a negative WAR player? I don't know.... probably. But the one year pop-up players are terrifying to sign to big money, long term. I'll take the track record of Lowe

I mean, look at this:

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Whammy said:

I just can't get over the fact that Bauers had a 3.3 WAR season in 2026, which raised his career WAR to +2.0.

Lowe on the other hand has 5.4 WAR in 2026 which raised his career WAR to 23.1.

Is Bauers no longer a negative WAR player? I don't know.... probably. But the one year pop-up players are terrifying to sign to big money, long term. I'll take the track record of Lowe

I mean, look at this:

Fair, I get that. 

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, Whammy said:

I just can't get over the fact that Bauers had a 3.3 WAR season in 2026, which raised his career WAR to +2.0.

Lowe on the other hand has 5.4 WAR in 2026 which raised his career WAR to 23.1.

Is Bauers no longer a negative WAR player? I don't know.... probably. But the one year pop-up players are terrifying to sign to big money, long term. I'll take the track record of Lowe

I mean, look at this:

I like Bauers, but was really surprised he was extended the QO, given he only performed at that level for 1 year.  Personally, I don't really want the Twins to pursue Bauers, but understand if they do.  I think he accepts the QO and returns to MIL.

In my opinion, Brandon Lowe would be the FA I target, regardless of QO or not.  He is coming off back to back 30HR seasons.  He is an everyday middle of the order bat with perennial 25+ HR power.  I am a bit skeptical of the defensive improvements he made, but he can also play 1B.  So if he turns back into a pumpkin at 2B there is a fall back option.  Also, when Houston enters the equation in either late 2027 or 2028, Lowe can either shift to 1B or DH.

The other 2 QO recipients that could be considered are Suzuki or Arozarena.  I don't see the Twins shopping in that aisle though.  But if they do, a RH OF bat could be worked around with Buxton, Jenkins, ERod, and shifting Keaschall to 1B since he has experience there.  That leaves Roden as the odd man out, but I suspect everyone would take that trade off. 

All 3 of Lowe, Suzuki, and Arozarena are predicted by MLBTR to make between $23-26M/yr AAV, so they are in the same ballpark. 

[Whammy]

In last Friday's Gleeman and the Geek episode (Patreon) they were discussing free agent bats and the question got asked.... Why are we viewing Jake Bauers any different than Ty France?

It seems silly on the surface but they actually kind of struggled to give a good answer.

Bauers is a one year pop-up (maybe 1.5 years). Former highly ranked prospect. 

Ty France also had a pop-up 2026. He put up similar numbers to Bauers but played better defense. He was also a former highly ranked prospect but also had a pretty good 2021 and 2022

France is only 1 year older than Bauers.

So... why do we view them differently? If anything, with a blind "taste test" i suspect most people would pick France.