Checking in on Simeon Woods Richardson

[Cody Pirkl]

Simeon Woods Richardson has climbed the ladder to Triple-A since being acquired in the Jose Berrios trade and has even made his MLB debut. He’s no longer the top 100 global prospect he once was. What might his future hold?

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Simeon Woods Richardson has climbed the ladder to Triple-A since being acquired in the Jose Berrios trade and has even made his MLB debut. He’s no longer the top 100 global prospect he once was. What might his future hold?

Simeon Woods Richardson was drafted out of high school and was a rare top prospect traded multiple times before reaching the majors. First to Toronto, then to the Twins, all before age 21. His minor-league career began as a low to mid-90s thrower with well over a strikeout per inning, and both of these skills have fallen precipitously as he’s moved up the ladder. Having totaled just over nine innings at the MLB level, it’s impossible to judge Woods Richardson. That being said, the brief results haven’t been awe-inspiring, nor has the eye test. As he now appears to be the next man up in Triple-A, can we rely on Woods Richardson if he gets the call in the case of another injury?

Simeon Woods Richardson’s best skill by scout grades is his 55 current and 60-grade future command. None of his individual pitches eclipse even a 50 grade by Fangraphs measure, meaning nothing else, in particular, stands out. This alone doesn’t give reason to worry about Woods Richardson’s future as a starting pitcher, but a few more red flags have developed as he’s reached the major leagues.

For starters, the velocity has fallen off a cliff. He never sat in the mid-90s, but he was noted to have sat around 93 in his pro debut with the ability to run his fastball up to 97. Reports across his minor league career the last few years have had him around 90-91, which has been the case in his two Major League appearances in which he sat 91.1 and 90.9 respectively. As we’ve seen with Kenta Maeda, such low velocity requires a high-line act involving put-away secondary stuff and pinpoint command. 

Woods Richardson did have it all working in 2022 when he posted a 3.06 ERA in Double-A Wichita and a 2.21 ERA in Triple-A St. Paul across just over 100 total innings. He struck out more than a batter per inning at both levels although his St. Paul success was assisted by a .143 batting average on balls in play. It’s possible that once SWR gets rolling, he can mix and match his offspeed pitches in a way that nullifies the below-average velocity.

Woods Richardson showed an interesting plan of attack in his 2023 MLB debut, not only throwing his changeup as his primary offspeed pitch but using it nearly as much as his fastball and doing so almost equally to right and left-handed hitters. He used his changeup against right-handed hitters more than he used his slider, though the Washington Nationals lineup absolutely clubbed both pitches.

It isn’t fair to judge Woods Richardson based on his 2023 debut of just under five innings, but his numbers in the minors have taken a step back thus far as well. With less than a strikeout per inning this season and a near 6 ERA, he’s not exactly kicking in the door to the majors at this point. By "stuff" measures, Woods Richardson has impressed in St. Paul and actually graded out well in his 2023 big league debut. These measures haven’t translated into the dominance you'd expect thus far.

For now, Woods Richardson will remain a starting pitching prospect, and will likely get a legitimate shot in the MLB rotation before the Twins even consider a change. It’s unfortunately just difficult to hold him in the same regard as Bailey Ober and Louie Varland when it comes to starting pitching depth at this point. The flashes of dominance just haven’t really been there.

He could still turn out to be a serviceable starting pitcher, though the eye test and his steady decline in velocity and strikeouts as he’s advanced through the minors has raised some questions. We’ll see him again in 2023 to get more of a sample size to analyze, whether in the rotation or out of the bullpen. Simeon Woods Richardson has had a strange professional career thus far between being part of multiple trades and sharply declining velocity by age 22. Where do you think his future role is?

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[Ricky Vaughn]

The loss of velocity doesn't preclude him from being successful, but makes it harder.  If he can prevent hard contact he should be fine. Probably not a 1 or 2 starter but back end starters are valuable too.

[Blyleven2011]

If he can pitch like Greg Maddux  , who cares about velocity  ... 

If his velocity isn't good he should start studying all of Maddux games pitched  and  maybe be a serviceable starter  ...

[Cody Pirkl]

3 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

The loss of velocity doesn't preclude him from being successful, but makes it harder.  If he can prevent hard contact he should be fine. Probably not a 1 or 2 starter but back end starters are valuable too.

I agree. It's not a death sentence, but it's really odd to see velocity fall off so hard by the age of 22. Usually we see players build velocity up as they age into their 20s which I'm sure the Twins have tried clearly with little success. One concern regarding the velocity though is that I do believe there's a hard drop off at a certain point, and if he's going to drop all the way down to 88-89 by the 5th inning he'd be lucky to make it out of that inning let alone ever go further.

[Dave Borton]

I claim no prowess in pitching, but the few times I have seen him, he relies strictly on upper body/arm for strength. No lower body put into the throw.

Wouldn't he be better served in technique by incorporating those big thighs and long legs into his delivery?

[Seth Stohs]

What I like: 

Make up, IQ, Work Ethic. His delivery is very unique. Very few come from that much over the top. He has typically had really good control, and starting in 2022, his command was much improved. I really like his two other pitchers. I think the 12-6 curveball can be a plus-pitch, and the changeup is really good. It's the changeup that might be the best pitch. It also moves in on a right-hander. I still think that his upside is a solid #3-4 starter, but that's not a bad thing at all.  

[dxpavelka]

Meanwhile, he's STILL not here.

 

[joefish]

22 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

If he can pitch like Greg Maddux  , who cares about velocity  ... 

If his velocity isn't good he should start studying all of Maddux games pitched  and  maybe be a serviceable starter  ...

Or study Sonny Gray.

[Minny505]

I'd avoid scouting the stat line for a young pitcher like SWR who is still working on improvement, not trying to prove he is ready for the show with his production. His stuff, command, and makeup are much more important. 

His stuff is literally top notch.

His command is solid.

His velo may set his ceiling at a modern day Marcus Stroman, Shane Bieber, or Merrill Kelly equivalent, but that is still plenty valuable.