Calling up Jackson to replace Martin?

[HarmonK03]

21 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

My guess is that Jackson was the choice because they are (like Chia Pet and I have been discussing) going to reduce the utilization going forward and go with the guys who have gotten them there. 

Therefore turning the 13th spot into a very specific role. IE Pinch Runner for Jeffers or Caratini when they reach base in the 8th inning. I also think that that 4 lefty relievers in the Braves and Padres bullpen is a factor even though Jackson's small sample success has come against right handers. I also think it's possible that they don't feel that the other outfield options are ready yet or it's also possible that they don't see a left handed Wallner or Jenkins as a adequate replacement for a right handed Martin in how the team is constructed. 

I can squint and justify it... but I still don't like it.  

I hear what you are saying but Jackson has not pinch hit once in his prior stint with the Twins, why would he now.  And while you may be right, they have to stop worrying what side of the plate a hitter stands on, especially Jenkins.  

And honestly, this isn't a shot at you, but this constant they aren't ready refrain is getting a little old.  No player at AAA is 100% ready, you need to bring them up and let them finish their learning curve that can only happen at this level.  This mentality is why we keep having the one year veteran and journeyman flowing thru this roster leading to .500 baseball at best.  Our farm system keeps getting highly rated, but then we don't use it to either trade for impact players or play them up here.  

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

I hear what you are saying but Jackson has not pinch hit once in his prior stint with the Twins, why would he now.  And while you may be right, they have to stop worrying what side of the plate a hitter stands on, especially Wallner.  

And honestly, this isn't a shot at you, but this constant they aren't ready refrain is getting a little old.  No player at AAA is 100% ready, you need to bring them up and let them finish their learning curve that can only happen at this level.  This mentality is why we keep having the one year veteran and journeyman flowing thru this roster leading to .500 baseball at best.  Our farm system keeps getting highly rated, but then we don't use it to either trade for impact players or play them up here.  

I'm not saying he will pinch hit. I'm saying I can see it crossing their minds. With 4 lefties in the pen... managers are going to be able to left... right... left us if they want. Larnach pinch hits for Kriedler and here comes that lefty to face Larnach with the game tied. Going to need a right handed bat since Larnach has been absolutely removed from any consideration of facing a left hander let alone a tie game in the 9th. 

In the 9 games after the Jackson call up. 4 of the starters will be left handed to go along 4 Braves, 4 Padres and 3 A's lefties in the bullpen. The portsiders are coming for a stretch. 

A counter punch to the counter punch may be necessary and that's the minimal role that justifies his contract being purchased again.  

Your second paragraph... I would never take that as a shot at me since I go to bed each night and wake up each morning thinking exactly what you are saying. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I hope you know that I respect you... always have. You are a sharp poster and always have been so please excuse me if I ask that we try not to make our points on the extreme edges. I've never known you to do that. 

If we are going to have this discussion on the extremes ignoring the miles of nuance in between... I'd say something like OK... Got it... Set it and Forget it... There is no need for Shelton to have daily meetings to put together a lineup. It's done we got our guys they can all walk past the lineup card now without checking. No need for further adjustment.

But... I'm not going to do that because I don't think that is what you are saying but these discussions will go off the rails when the extremes are thrown out to counter points. 

I get the nuance in regards to hot and cold streaks. Yes... if you could time them, you'd be a very successful manager much like an investor would be rich if he could time the market. It's hard because a hot streak can turn into cold on a dime... but I know you know what a hot streak is and what a cold streak is so please don't ask me if Trevor Larnach is out of his cold streak because of 4 hits in 3 games. At that point the discussion is no longer honest and it becomes pointless real fast. 

wOBA is your preferred stat and you are using 300 PA's as a qualifier.  That's fine and yes in that regard... You can add Royce and Kody because they are also above league average and just mere points behind Bell. If you include Jeffers who is just 45 PA's short. That's 7 players above league average. And that leaves us with Lee a little below and whoever is going to end up playing SS. Overall it's pretty impressive that we have 7 players above average and that's a good thing and perhaps it's why we are still in this thing with our pitching being questionable.

However... here's the problem. We have a total of 9 players who reached 300 PA's... 10 if you make the number 255 to include the top Dog Jeffers. Lee Martin and Caratini are the other 3 that have surpassed 255 PA's but are below league average wOBA.

Sure looks like we settled on a lineup 300 PA's ago. Players need to continue the journey toward 300. 

I'm not ready to declare anything yet. This lineup is too average to settle in my opinion. 

And I hope you know that I spent the off-season fiercely defending Larnach against what seemed like the majority of this community and I still do. I'm certainly not going to turn on him now when he has been a major contributor to this contending team. He's cooled down... He can certainly heat up again... even with 36 games remaining. 

Oh, nothing but respect for you. One of my favorite posters and I know we see generally eye to eye on many things. I enjoy disagreeing with you on something because I know it's coming from a thoughtful place with real reasoning behind it.

But I don't think asking about how you know a hot or cold streak is starting or ending is being extreme. It's the real-life decision that you're talking about.

If you're going to sit Larnach because he's "cooled down" then you have to know when that moment is. You have to know when he's passed a threshold into "cooled down." What constitutes cooling down and sitting your significantly above average hitter on any regular basis? So, I don't know if 4 hits in 3 games means he's out of it to you. That's an important and real question. If he should sit in order to see if Roden, or whoever, can get hot, you need to know what being cold and hot are. It doesn't have to be exact numbers over an exact amount of time (that part I guess is a little extreme to ask), but you have to be able to define it in some way, shape, or form. Otherwise, what are you making decisions on? 

The "cooled down" argument is a different argument than your "stay ready" argument. Roden, or whoever, getting regular ABs in case Larnach, or whoever, gets hurt is a very different thing than playing the hot hand or giving everybody a chance to get hot. Larnach's been hot for the season. If you're going to sit him because he isn't hot, you need to know what constitutes that. If you're going to get back to playing him every day like I think you'd agree a guy with his performance over that amount of time has earned, then you need to know what constitutes Roden not getting hot and/or Larnach heating up.

Totally fine if you aren't settled on things. But I am. And I think the numbers Larnach, Buxton, and Keaschall are more than enough to be settled. At least settled enough that in a playoff chase I'm not going to say "well, maybe Roden or a rookie can put up numbers 20+% above average, let's throw them in there just in case instead of the guys who are already doing it."

[Riverbrian]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, nothing but respect for you. One of my favorite posters and I know we see generally eye to eye on many things. I enjoy disagreeing with you on something because I know it's coming from a thoughtful place with real reasoning behind it.

But I don't think asking about how you know a hot or cold streak is starting or ending is being extreme. It's the real-life decision that you're talking about.

If you're going to sit Larnach because he's "cooled down" then you have to know when that moment is. You have to know when he's passed a threshold into "cooled down." What constitutes cooling down and sitting your significantly above average hitter on any regular basis? So, I don't know if 4 hits in 3 games means he's out of it to you. That's an important and real question. If he should sit in order to see if Roden, or whoever, can get hot, you need to know what being cold and hot are. It doesn't have to be exact numbers over an exact amount of time (that part I guess is a little extreme to ask), but you have to be able to define it in some way, shape, or form. Otherwise, what are you making decisions on? 

The "cooled down" argument is a different argument than your "stay ready" argument. Roden, or whoever, getting regular ABs in case Larnach, or whoever, gets hurt is a very different thing than playing the hot hand or giving everybody a chance to get hot. Larnach's been hot for the season. If you're going to sit him because he isn't hot, you need to know what constitutes that. If you're going to get back to playing him every day like I think you'd agree a guy with his performance over that amount of time has earned, then you need to know what constitutes Roden not getting hot and/or Larnach heating up.

Totally fine if you aren't settled on things. But I am. And I think the numbers Larnach, Buxton, and Keaschall are more than enough to be settled. At least settled enough that in a playoff chase I'm not going to say "well, maybe Roden or a rookie can put up numbers 20+% above average, let's throw them in there just in case instead of the guys who are already doing it."

In order to get closer to the same page there is a clarification necessary.

On one side you have playing every single day and on the other side of the coin you have sitting and never playing. The majority of the possibilities are on a scale in between those extremes.

Do you have Larnach, Buxton, Keaschall and Bell playing every single game for the next 36? Those 4 are my choices as well for the primary playing time but I just don't have them necessary in the lineup every single day. Buxton... Yes... Every day please but his health might require some rest.

Everyone else though. One game a week from each will provide competition, it will provide the opportunity to build that exposure and see if he Roden can help us come playoff time.

Buxton Health, Larnach Platoon, Keaschall for defensive purposes and Bell for being average is enough reason for them to cough up a game a week without really taxing our win loss chances. 

I did notice that you were kind of enough during our discussion to not point out that... Yes... I was talking hot and cold streaks in regards to playing time allocation while also arguing for playing time for a player like Roden who's surface stats say cold streak. That may seem North and South Polish but it's really not. 

I'm not ready to bench anyone yet. But yes... We are getting down to the nitty gritty and the go to lineup will need to be condensed as we go along. Today we can start with Jackson he's not necessary at all. Tomorrow who knows but I'm not ready to bench Roden or Kriedler yet.   

 

 

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

In order to get closer to the same page there is a clarification necessary.

On one side you have playing every single day and on the other side of the coin you have sitting and never playing. The majority of the possibilities are on a scale in between those extremes.

Do you have Larnach, Buxton, Keaschall and Bell playing every single game for the next 36? Those 4 are my choices as well for the primary playing time but I just don't have them necessary in the lineup every single day. Buxton... Yes... Every day please but his health might require some rest.

Everyone else though. One game a week from each will provide competition, it will provide the opportunity to build that exposure and see if he Roden can help us come playoff time.

Buxton Health, Larnach Platoon, Keaschall for defensive purposes and Bell for being average is enough reason for them to cough up a game a week without really taxing our win loss chances. 

I did notice that you were kind of enough during our discussion to not point out that... Yes... I was talking hot and cold streaks in regards to playing time allocation while also arguing for playing time for a player like Roden who's surface stats say cold streak. That may seem North and South Polish but it's really not. 

I'm not ready to bench anyone yet. But yes... We are getting down to the nitty gritty and the go to lineup will need to be condensed as we go along. Today we can start with Jackson he's not necessary at all. Tomorrow who knows but I'm not ready to bench Roden or Kriedler yet.   

 

 

DH- Bell 36 of 36
C- Jeffers 29 of 36
1B- Lewis 36 of 36
2B- Clemens every game against righties, Kreidler against lefties
3B- Lee 36 of 36
SS- Culpepper 36 of 36 (only guy who's at real risk of losing his spot for a cold streak that is shorter than about 0-30)
LF- Larnach 36 of 36 unless Martin comes back to platoon again
CF- Buxton 36 of 36
RF- Keaschall 36 of 36

That'd be my plan as of today. There'd be 0 "planned rest" days (outside of Jeffers), there'd be 0 "keep player X fresh" days, there'd be 0 "see if he gets hot" days. Jackson would catch any of the 7 non-Jeffers games that come against teams that run to take advantage of his arm while Caratini would get the others. I'll take the real defensive boost of Kreidler over Clemens against lefties. 

Unless one of those guys comes in and says "not feeling well today, skip, better put somebody else out there," I'm going with that lineup from now until somebody gets hurt. 

These 9 non-Culpepper guys have gotten us here and they're either getting us to the playoffs or they're not. There's a 0% chance Shelton does this, but it's what my plan would be.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

DH- Bell 36 of 36
C- Jeffers 29 of 36
1B- Lewis 36 of 36
2B- Clemens every game against righties, Kreidler against lefties
3B- Lee 36 of 36
SS- Culpepper 36 of 36 (only guy who's at real risk of losing his spot for a cold streak that is shorter than about 0-30)
LF- Larnach 36 of 36 unless Martin comes back to platoon again
CF- Buxton 36 of 36
RF- Keaschall 36 of 36

That'd be my plan as of today. There'd be 0 "planned rest" days (outside of Jeffers), there'd be 0 "keep player X fresh" days, there'd be 0 "see if he gets hot" days. Jackson would catch any of the 7 non-Jeffers games that come against teams that run to take advantage of his arm while Caratini would get the others. I'll take the real defensive boost of Kreidler over Clemens against lefties. 

Unless one of those guys comes in and says "not feeling well today, skip, better put somebody else out there," I'm going with that lineup from now until somebody gets hurt. 

These 9 non-Culpepper guys have gotten us here and they're either getting us to the playoffs or they're not. There's a 0% chance Shelton does this, but it's what my plan would be.

I'm not ready for that.

Although I'd love Larnach 36 out of 36 which means against every lefty just out of spite. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not ready for that.

Although I'd love Larnach 36 out of 36 which means against every lefty just out of spite. 

I knew you'd at least appreciate that.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Interestingly enough, Shelton started Roden last night against a LH and sat Larnach. Maybe he's taking the Austin Martin spot. Hey, he went 1-3 and had a very good sacrifice bunt. He could be the other half of the LF platoon and also play once a week when Buxton needs to sit and once a week for Keaschall.  By the way, Roden is in RF tonight against Mahle, a rightie, with Buxton on the bench, He's going to get 3-4 games a week. That's enough to see what he can do.