Article: What's wrong with Scott Diamond?

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2113-What-s-wrong-with-Scott-Diamond

[NC-Twins]

What's wrong with Diamond? Good question. Perhaps it is his Canadian-ness. Same problem plaguing Morneau? All three Minnesota boys are doing great. OK, OK, I'm just kidding. I stopped making fun of Canadians years ago after their dollar became stronger than ours -- just had a little relapse.

[troyhobbs]

Why not try Albers at this point?

[boylan]

Scott Diamond has unilateral arm weakness.

 

Seriously. He had just barely started his conditioning program to prepare for spring training when his bone chip problem cropped up. This was reported at the time. He has been behind the curve since winter. Just recently Ryan or Gardy was quoted saying his velocity is down a mile or two this year vs. last year.

 

I don't think we'll see him fix this until next year and I think it's the same situation

as Joe Mauer's bilateral leg weakness season - can condition or play but not both.

[Boom Boom]

He's a left-handed Nick Blackburn.

[BeefMaster]

Why not try Albers at this point?

 

One minor complication to calling up Albers - he's not on the 40-man roster (which is currently full), so they'd have to waive someone to do it. At this point, though, I don't really see any reason not to run Butera through waivers - Hermann appears to have passed him up on the organizational depth chart, and the fact that Butera's got a guaranteed contract for more than the minimum might dissuade other teams from claiming him anyway.

[Willihammer]

Scott Diamond has unilateral arm weakness.

 

Seriously. He had just barely started his conditioning program to prepare for spring training when his bone chip problem cropped up. This was reported at the time. He has been behind the curve since winter. Just recently Ryan or Gardy was quoted saying his velocity is down a mile or two this year vs. last year.

 

I don't think we'll see him fix this until next year and I think it's the same situation

as Joe Mauer's bilateral leg weakness season - can condition or play but not both.

 

I suspect you're right. Its gotta be an elbow thing (but also a regression thing).

[boylan]

I suspect you're right. Its gotta be an elbow thing (but also a regression thing).

 

 

Yes to some regression.

 

2011 AAA he averaged about 5 1/3 ip, whip of 1.5+, 11+ H/9 although 6.6 so/9 and that's about what he's doing this year.

 

Maybe Albers can go 6+ but I don't see any other help at AAA that would be any better.

 

Accept he can only go 5ip this year? Use him as a 5th and pair his starts with a long relief stint?

[jorgenswest]

Before going to Albers, why not give Swarzak another shot as a starter?

 

He started 11 games in 2011.

 

63.1 IP, 36K, 13BB, 4.52 ERA, 3.92 FIP

 

His FIP as a starter was better than his FIP as a reliever.

 

While those number aren't great, the Twins have certainly given other guys longer shots with poorer results. It is also possible that he is a better pitcher now than he was in 2011. The Twins have run a lot of guys through the rotation the last two years, I would put Swarzak in the mix and give a dozen starts. Worst case, he enters 2014 back in his long relief role.

[ThePuck]

Could it be that he's just not that good? I mean, when you give up more hits than IP AND can't strike out anyone, isn't it possible that eventually that will catch up with you?

[SpitefulRabbit617]

Is Diamond on his last option?

[Willihammer]

His release point has changed. It coincides pretty well with the decline.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_bytime.php?s_type=2&time=month&player=539438&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/23/2013&minmax=ci&var=z0

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/plot_bytime.php?s_type=2&time=month&player=539438&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA%7CSI%7CFC%7CCU%7CSL%7CCS%7CKN%7CCH%7CFS%7CSB&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=07/23/2013&minmax=ci&var=x0

Might be he's changed his delivery to compensate for the elbow. Less over the top.

 

Might be he's changed spots on the rubber too.

[frightwig]

He doesnt strike anyone out, and his walk rate is up, HR rate is up, LOB% is down, GB% is down.... When a guy has a K/9 at around 4.5 or less, he needs everything else to go just right. For awhile last year, that happened for Diamond--but it never was going to last.

[boylan]

I'd go for another try with Swarzak starting although you can tell the Twins aren't real hot on that idea. I'm not sure he has the pitches to make it through the batting order 3 times.

 

Diamond is no top of the rotation guy but I think he has the stuff to be a 3-4 starter. The possible problems are some regression (he's slipped a little bit this year which happens to most players at some point and they usually come back), arm strength (unilateral arm weakness) due to his training schedule being messed up or loss of mental focus/mental fatigue later in the game.

 

I think Diamond has an option left but I'm not sure. Looking back I think the twins and Braves burned options in 2011 and 2012 which would leave him with one. I have not seen him listed on players without options on mlbrumors.com but that's not definitive obviously.

[Willihammer]

Swarzie technically throws a changeup but like just about everyone else on the staff he can't really lean on his 3rd pitch to help him get through lineups 3 times or more.

[boylan]

That's super interesting data on his release point. The vertical change would imply he's not got the same downward trajectory on the ball and would make his stuff more hittable.

 

I'm not sure the Twins would know this either. I get the sense they aren't that big into numbers - Gardy definitely isn't. And it's about a 4 inch vertical change which is an average number and won't appear on every pitch.

 

So, his arm is little tired and he's not not releasing as high as he was before and it's making him just a little bit more hittable with less downward action.

 

Great find on that data.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I was at the June 9 game here in DC...Dozier booted a ball at 2B that led to a long inning (5th I think) where Diamond faced an extra 4 or 5 batters...it was ruled a hit...but even Gardy said it should have been an error. There were several other fielding miscues behind Diamond requiring him to throw maybe an extra 20 pitches. I believe he hasn't recovered from that. I also agree with some of the commenters above that maybe flipping Diamond and Albers for August would be a good idea. Obviously Diamond has been fighting sophomore slump--I believe he will be fine in the future and a good 3/4 starter.

[Oxtung]

That's super interesting data on his release point. The vertical change would imply he's not got the same downward trajectory on the ball and would make his stuff more hittable.

 

I'm not sure the Twins would know this either. I get the sense they aren't that big into numbers - Gardy definitely isn't. And it's about a 4 inch vertical change which is an average number and won't appear on every pitch.

 

So, his arm is little tired and he's not not releasing as high as he was before and it's making him just a little bit more hittable with less downward action.

 

Great find on that data.

 

This isn't statistical analysis. This is mechanics. The Twins are all about mechanics.

[Jack Torse]

I think this season is more reflective of the kind pitcher he is than last year. Nothing he throws has snap or late break. He's a lower tier MLB starting pitcher at best.

[cmathewson]

Scott Diamond doesn't have enough stuff to get guys out at the major league level. He does have good command of the stuff he has. But that only works until the league figures you out. Then you have to make adjustments, and he can't make adjustments with his stuff. So they wait him out. He reminds me of Alan Anderson. Won the ERA title one year. The league started figuring him out the next.

[Steve Lein]

He's a left-handed Nick Blackburn.

 

^ Yup. Always has been. Can be a good piece of a rotation, but not at the top or middle.

[Thegrin]

Last year Diamond was throwing up and down, in and out, constantly changing speeds. This year he is laboring to hit his spots. He has been painful to watch.