A Look Around the AL Central: The Detroit Tigers

[Cory Moen]

Image courtesy of © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the Twins looking to return to being competitive in the AL Central, we wanted to take a look around at the other teams in the division and what moves they made this offseason. This is a look at what to expect from the 2026 Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers finished second in the AL Central and secured a Wild Card spot, defeating the Guardians 2-1 in their opening playoff series before being eliminated by the Mariners in a five-game Division Series. This offseason brought about a series of significant moves for Detroit, as they attempt to attain October for the third straight season.

Notable Subtractions

• Chris Paddack (starting pitcher)
• Tommy Kahnle (relief pitcher)
• Alex Cobb (starting pitcher)
• Alex Lange (relief pitcher)
• Andy Ibáñez (lefty masher)
• Justyn-Henry Malloy (third baseman/outfielder)

Notable Additions

• Framber Valdez (starting pitcher)
• Justin Verlander (starting pitcher)
• Kenley Jansen (relief pitcher)
• Drew Anderson (swingman)

Looking at these transactions, it appears the additions outweigh the subtractions for the Tigers. Specifically, Framber Valdez, a playoff-caliber starter, signed a lucrative three-year deal to slot in behind two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. Meanwhile, Tigers legend Justin Verlander returns on a one-year deal, bringing valuable experience to fortify the rotation.

Verlander will strengthen a rotation dealing with injuries, though given his age and recent track record, he could be among the injured at times. Drew Anderson is also joining as a depth rotation option, while Kenley Jansen is set to fill the primary closer and high-leverage bullpen role.

Three key players who had at least a chance of going elsewhere have also returned. Starter Jack Flaherty exercised his player option for 2026; second baseman Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer of $22.025 million; and trade deadline acquisition Kyle Finnegan hit free agency but ultimately re-signed for two years.

Injuries

• Jackson Jobe - returning from Tommy John surgery
• Troy Melton - slowed by elbow inflammation in spring training; will start on 60-day IL
• Reese Olson - out for the year

Key Players

• C Dillon Dingler - 3.1 bWAR in 2025
• 1B Spencer Torkelson - 2.3 bWAR in 2025
• 2B Gleyber Torres - 2.9 bWAR in 2025
• 3B Zach McKinstry - 2.8 bWAR in 2025
• LHP Tarik Skubal - 6.5 bWAR in 2025

Skubal, embarking on a defense of two straight Cy Young Awards and trying to position himself for a historic free-agent payday, is the most obvious center of gravity for the team, but last year, the club thrived because of its balance. They ranked 11th in runs, 10th in home runs, 12th in OPS, and 16th in batting average last season. Their 61 steals, however, were last in MLB.

Top Prospects:

• Kevin McGonigle - SS
• Max Clark - OF
• Josue Briceno - C/1B
• Bryce Rainer - SS
• Thayron Liranzo - C/1B

Observers are especially optimistic about Kevin McGonigle, a likely early-season call-up—if he's not on the Opening Day roster. Max Clark, taken just before Walker Jenkins in the 2023 MLB Draft, will be compared to Jenkins as their careers unfold in the AL Central.

Spring Storylines (and beyond):
Verlander's triumphant return and Skubal's potentially imminent exit loom large, but the team is trying to establish a winning identity that will stretch beyond this year and those two players. At 25, Riley Greene is expected to continue progressing toward stardom. Emerging talents like Colt Keith, McGonigle, and Clark could shape the Tigers’ future core. When and how well Jobe returns from Tommy John surgery will be a major storyline, too.

Beyond Jansen, Finnegan and Vest line up for late innings. However, the work of the pen will be spread very evenly. A.J. Hinch has earned considerable praise for his nimble usage of an often motley relief crew. What he dubbed 'pitching chaos' during the 2024 playoffs has been an effective tack for keeping order over the last year and a half, leading to two straight overachieving seasons.

The Tigers are expected to remain competitive in the AL Central in 2026.

Projected Lineup
Parker Meadows - CF
Gleyber Torres - 2B
Riley Greene - LF
Spencer Torkelson - 1B
Kerry Carpenter - DH
Dillon Dingler - C
Colt Keith - 3B
Matt Vierling/Wenceel Pérez - RF
Zach McKinstry - SS

Note: Javier Báez is an option off the bench with this lineup—and could sometimes be the starting shortstop, with McKinstry shifting to third base, like he played last year.

Projected Rotation
Tarik Skubal - LHP
Framber Valdez - LHP
Justin Verlander - RHP
Jack Flaherty - RHP
Casey Mize - RHP

Projected Record
PECOTA: 2nd place, 83-79
Fangraphs: 1st place, 85-77

If everyone stays healthy, the Tigers are the favorite to win the Central this year. They seem to have improved overall in the offseason, and are looking for the young core group to take a step forward and see if they can get past the Division Series.

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[bean5302]

Calling a pitcher who is arguably an ace and certainly far better than anybody the Twins have in the rotation a "playoff caliber starter" is a disservice. Framber Valdez hasn't been a locked-in every start dominator like typical aces, but over his past 4 seasons where's he's qualified every year, he owns a 3.21 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and a 3.20 xFIP. He's probably not going to win a Cy Young, but he's good enough to go up against opposing best pitcher in the playoffs, and he's their #2 behind arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Even at the back end of the Tigers' rotation it's Justin Verlander, who is pretty likely to be a playoff caliber starter next year. They're STACKED.

On the offensive side of things, Kevin McGonigle looks like the real deal showing Twins fans what a REAL top prospect looks like over full seasons, not 1/2 seasons while they nurse unlimited injuries. If McGonigle plays well, it frees up some options for CF. Overall, the Tigers offense looks to be highly capable almost across the board, but without any real monsters. Unlike the Twins, again, Detroit has established full time players who are projected in line with proven performance.

The Tigers are probably going to win 95 games this year thanks to weak teams to feast off in the AL Central again.

 

[Cory Moen]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Calling a pitcher who is arguably an ace and certainly far better than anybody the Twins have in the rotation a "playoff caliber starter" is a disservice. Framber Valdez hasn't been a locked-in every start dominator like typical aces, but over his past 4 seasons where's he's qualified every year, he owns a 3.21 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and a 3.20 xFIP. He's probably not going to win a Cy Young, but he's good enough to go up against opposing best pitcher in the playoffs, and he's their #2 behind arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Even at the back end of the Tigers' rotation it's Justin Verlander, who is pretty likely to be a playoff caliber starter next year. They're STACKED.

On the offensive side of things, Kevin McGonigle looks like the real deal showing Twins fans what a REAL top prospect looks like over full seasons, not 1/2 seasons while they nurse unlimited injuries. If McGonigle plays well, it frees up some options for CF. Overall, the Tigers offense looks to be highly capable almost across the board, but without any real monsters. Unlike the Twins, again, Detroit has established full time players who are projected in line with proven performance.

The Tigers are probably going to win 95 games this year thanks to weak teams to feast off in the AL Central again.

 

McGonigle played 88 games in 2025. Walker Jenkins played in 84. 

Valdez is a very good pitcher, no doubt. I didn't refer to him as an ace because he tied for 24th in bWAR with Noah Cameron, Kevin Gausman, and Gavin Williams, and I wouldn't consider any of those three an ace right now. He's finished in the top 20 in pitching WAR just once, so calling him an ace felt like a big of a stretch. 

I do agree that he will be very good, but I do think, as long as he's healthy, Joe Ryan is a better pitcher. 

[mikelink45]

10 hours ago, Cory Moen said:

McGonigle played 88 games in 2025. Walker Jenkins played in 84. 

Valdez is a very good pitcher, no doubt. I didn't refer to him as an ace because he tied for 24th in bWAR with Noah Cameron, Kevin Gausman, and Gavin Williams, and I wouldn't consider any of those three an ace right now. He's finished in the top 20 in pitching WAR just once, so calling him an ace felt like a big of a stretch. 

I do agree that he will be very good, but I do think, as long as he's healthy, Joe Ryan is a better pitcher. 

I am not a fan of WAR to judge SP.  My question is, would you choose the pitcher to start a critical game?  He has 8 years of post season experience.  It does not matter to me if he is called an ACE or not, but I am not ready to equate Ryan and Valdez yet.  

[laloesch]

The Tigers are definitely the Division winners this year in my opinion.  That young core is getting better and better by the second and the AL Central is gonna be weak again in 2026 with the Twins and White Sox at the bottom and Kansas City somewhere in the middle.  

[bean5302]

16 hours ago, Cory Moen said:

...I do agree that he will be very good, but I do think, as long as he's healthy, Joe Ryan is a better pitcher. 

I have no concept of how a person could legitimately get to your position.

Valdez vs. Ryan 2022+
GS = 143 vs 109
Inn = 902.1 vs 614.2
fWAR = 18.3 vs 10.8
ERA = 3.20 vs 3.78
FIP = 3.40 vs 3.84
xFIP = 3.34 vs 3.70

Valdez is more durable, has generated more value, has better results across the board, and much better individual peak seasons than Ryan. Is this one of those Alex Kirilloff things where Ryan is only healthy if he pitches a great game and every game where he wasn't great he must have been injured?

[Cory Moen]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I have no concept of how a person could legitimately get to your position.

Valdez vs. Ryan 2022+
GS = 143 vs 109
Inn = 902.1 vs 614.2
fWAR = 18.3 vs 10.8
ERA = 3.20 vs 3.78
FIP = 3.40 vs 3.84
xFIP = 3.34 vs 3.70

Valdez is more durable, has generated more value, has better results across the board, and much better individual peak seasons than Ryan. Is this one of those Alex Kirilloff things where Ryan is only healthy if he pitches a great game and every game where he wasn't great he must have been injured?

I think Joe Ryan is a better pitcher right now, and going forward. He was better in 2025, and most recent results and age are what I was going off of when I made this statement. 

GS - both at 31
Innings Valdez had 19 more innings
fWAR: Ryan leads 4.5-3.8
ERA - Ryan - 3.42 Valdez - 3.66
SO% - Ryan - 28.2 Valdez - 23.3
FIP - Valdez was slightly better - 3.37-3.74


Also - 2022-2025 - Valdez was worth 14.9 fWAR and Ryan 10.7. It appears the numbers you used for Valdez are his entire career, and not 2022 on like you stated. 

Edited March 14 by Cory Moen
more info

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 3/12/2026 at 10:12 PM, Cory Moen said:

McGonigle played 88 games in 2025. Walker Jenkins played in 84. 

Valdez is a very good pitcher, no doubt. I didn't refer to him as an ace because he tied for 24th in bWAR with Noah Cameron, Kevin Gausman, and Gavin Williams, and I wouldn't consider any of those three an ace right now. He's finished in the top 20 in pitching WAR just once, so calling him an ace felt like a big of a stretch. 

I do agree that he will be very good, but I do think, as long as he's healthy, Joe Ryan is a better pitcher. 

At lease Joe Ryan has never hit his own catcher with a pitch by intentionally crossing the catcher him during a game.

[bean5302]

19 hours ago, Cory Moen said:

I think Joe Ryan is a better pitcher right now, and going forward. He was better in 2025, and most recent results and age are what I was going off of when I made this statement. 

GS - both at 31
Innings Valdez had 19 more innings
fWAR: Ryan leads 4.5-3.8
ERA - Ryan - 3.42 Valdez - 3.66
SO% - Ryan - 28.2 Valdez - 23.3
FIP - Valdez was slightly better - 3.37-3.74


Also - 2022-2025 - Valdez was worth 14.9 fWAR and Ryan 10.7. It appears the numbers you used for Valdez are his entire career, and not 2022 on like you stated. 

Here are the numbers. I originally highlighted 2021 for the WAR, but removed it because Joe Ryan didn't really pitch in 2021.

It looks like you used bWAR rather than fWAR.

Stick with your opinion it if you like. I don't find it remotely credible.

[Cory Moen]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Here are the numbers. I originally highlighted 2021 for the WAR, but removed it because Joe Ryan didn't really pitch in 2021.

It looks like you used bWAR rather than fWAR.

Stick with your opinion it if you like. I don't find it remotely credible.

My mistake, I did use bWAR. but yeah, I do think Ryan is better right now, and he was better in 2025, even with less innings pitched. It's close, no doubt, but I'd rather have Ryan at this point in their careers.