Free agents and playoff teams

[drjim]

A lot of talk about how the Twins should have signed a big free agent last offseason and also that the Twins can't make the playoffs unless they sign one.

 

With that in mind I decided to take a look at the 10 playoff teams and analyze how many players on their collective rosters were players acquired via free agency from outside the organization for contracts longer than two years.

 

Here is the list:

Nationals - Werth

Braves - none

Cardinals - none

Reds - none

Giants - Zito

Yankees - Sabathia, Tex

Orioles - none

Tigers - Fielder, VMart

Rangers - Darvish, Beltre

As - Cespedes

 

I included Darvish and Cespedes even though I think they don't exactly apply to the issue at hand.

 

A couple of thoughts:

-4 teams had none of these types of free agents

-VMart didn't play last year and Zito added little until the playoffs. Werth was hurt much of the year as well. Take them out and it drops to 6 players total and only 4 teams.

-the two worse contracts on the list (Werth, Zito) were signed by teams that were not in the playoffs at the time of the signing. The teams obviously overcame this but it should be a cautionary situation for the Twins in their current situation.

 

My final takeaway is that these types of free agents are not necessary and the teams that most utilize this method are bigger markets/payrolls than the Twins. Also, international free agency is a good idea.

[TheLeviathan]

My final takeaway is that these types of free agents are not necessary and the teams that most utilize this method are bigger markets/payrolls than the Twins. Also, international free agency is a good idea.

 

Since when does 40% show a trend?

 

I'd also point out that three of those 4 that account for the 40% have an established pattern of dealing prospects for impending FAs and then signing them to long term deals. Holliday, Arroyo, Hudson, the Uptons, Uggla all come to mind. (Not to mention Pence, Migueal Cabrera, and many others on this list)

[Willihammer]

The Twins also don't have a Lincecum / Wainright / Cain / Bailey / Verlander etc. from within the organization that they can extend. Thus, unlike some of these teams, they have no choice but to go outside the organization if they want to improve their pitching.

[drjim]

The Twins also don't have a Lincecum / Wainright / Cain / Bailey / Verlander etc. from within the organization that they can extend. Thus, unlike some of these teams, they have no choice but to go outside the organization if they want to improve their pitching.

 

Not yet.

[gunnarthor]

Since when does 40% show a trend?

 

I'd also point out that three of those 4 that account for the 40% have an established pattern of dealing prospects for impending FAs and then signing them to long term deals. Holliday, Arroyo, Hudson, the Uptons, Uggla all come to mind. (Not to mention Pence, Migueal Cabrera, and many others on this list)

 

That seems to be two different issues - 1) resigning your own players and 2) trading prospects for established types. Both are worthy discussions but neither deal with the specific issue of signing free agents.

 

Drjim makes a good point. Maybe it's not the definitive point (maybe it is) but successful teams don't normally get there through free agency. They don't take short cuts. They draft well. They make good trades. They make some smart waiver claims and/or rule v picks. They develop a core group of players together. And then they might use FA to fix the core.

[drjim]

Since when does 40% show a trend?

 

I'd also point out that three of those 4 that account for the 40% have an established pattern of dealing prospects for impending FAs and then signing them to long term deals. Holliday, Arroyo, Hudson, the Uptons, Uggla all come to mind. (Not to mention Pence, Migueal Cabrera, and many others on this list)

 

I think this is the likely Twins strategy in the near future. On a smaller scale they did similar moves with Pavano (and Stewart before that).

[TheLeviathan]

Drjim makes a good point. Maybe it's not the definitive point (maybe it is) but successful teams don't normally get there through free agency. They don't take short cuts. They draft well. They make good trades. They make some smart waiver claims and/or rule v picks. They develop a core group of players together. And then they might use FA to fix the core.

 

Who is suggesting differently? That's precisely the point - the Twins don't make prospects for stars trades and they don't use FA for elite players. You take those two elements out for the teams above and you have significantly less talented teams.

 

No one wants to "get there" through FA. Please, stop misconstruing the point.

[TheLeviathan]

I think this is the likely Twins strategy in the near future. On a smaller scale they did similar moves with Pavano (and Stewart before that).

 

You really think Ryan is going to start making Matt Holliday type trades? Or Miggy? Or Pence?

 

I'm sorry jim, but I find the idea of Ryan signing a 6 year, 100M contract in FA more likely than that. Just not in his nature to move top prospects.

[Willihammer]

Not yet.

 

Its possible to do both? Rebuild the farm, and put a decent product on the field? Again this is a conflation that keeps derailing the discussion. You can sign FAs and build your farm at the same time. See: Cardinals, Nats, Rangers, etc.

[gunnarthor]

Its possible to do both? Rebuild the farm, and put a decent product on the field? Again this is a conflation that keeps derailing the discussion. You can sign FAs and build your farm at the same time. See: Cardinals, Nats, Rangers, etc.

 

Not really the same situation. Rangers and Nats were bad for a decade. Eventually both teams made good trades and stockpiled enough draft chips and (esp for the Rangers) latin america. Cards are a fantastic organization. Hopefully the Twins can duplicate that.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I think that once the Twins have the core of their upcoming talent in the majors they can possibly pool together some of our prospects in the 10-20 range to get a solid player from a struggling club looking to unload a contract. There is no guarantee that this happens but with the overall depth of our system currently, there are some solid trade pieces available for when the team is ready to contend again. The ultimate question if this happens will be whether the Twins can extend the contracts.

 

FA is always a crap shoot because elite players rarely make it to FA as teams try to lock these franchise players up. That leaves the very good, could be an allstar during a good year players left as the best players on the market most of the time.

[jay]

get a solid player from a struggling club looking to unload a contract.

 

I'd think this is just as likely as FA or at least some version of it. Out of favor, slump, clearing room for a top prospect, etc.

 

I'd be just as happy if the Twins are able to deal for a higher-end SP and extend him. The issue there is giving up prospects for the chance to pay market rates in the extension anyway. However, we've seen many clubs do it and at this point.... whatever it takes to make it happen.

[whydidnt]

Well, I appreciate the time you spent looking at this, however, looking at 1 year out of 40 years of free agency is probably too small sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from. I haven't seen any studies, so perhaps I'm off but it seems to me that having a higher payroll doesn't guarantee a spot in the playoffs or even a winning team, but it does greatly increase your chances. That's why teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. always seem to be contending, while teams such as the Twins, A's Rays, etc. have a few good years and then don't.

 

Finally, as it relates to Free Agents and the Twins this last off-season. The Twins had money to spend, it wasn't as if by signing a big free agent, they would have gone over budget. Even if it didn't mean the Twins make the playoffs, it still would have made them a better more competitive team. As a fan that's what I'm asking for --That the Twins use every resource they have available to put a competitive team on the field. They did NOT do that last off season.