Minnesota Twins Front Office Attempting to Emulate Highly Rated Counterparts in Cleveland, Tampa Bay

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, LonelyseatinMOA said:

Derek should hire a stylist, cuz he looks awful in that photo. I know he can darn well afford one. 

Bad sunglasses, bad suit, bad hairstyle .... where do we start? 

[Eris]

The biggest challenges facing the Twins is that they have constructed a roster of too many players who are too frequently injured. Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Miranda. There is a limit to the number of capable backup players that can be on the 26 and 40 man roster.  Some is bad luck (Lewis) some were active decisions (Correa, Buxton). 

The second half of the 2023 season dominated by Wallner, Lewis, Julien and to a lesser extent Miranda perhaps gave unrealistic expectations of future performance—bad defense is okay if Julien can hit 0.300. 
 

For about last decade or so, the Twins have been near the top of the league in % of runs scored by HR. They have achieved this by emphasizing hitting over defense and increasing power by increasing strike outs. I think one of the challenges with this approach is that high K% hitters are more streaky and also more effectively neutralized by good pitching. 

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

I do wish Falvey would have emulated them in not saddling us with a $37M shortstop. That financial commitment changed everything. Small market teams cannot have a $37M player. One player cannot be 30% of the teams total payroll in my opinion, and with Buxton & Lopez we are devoting 60% of the teams total payroll to 3 players. Falvey did not emulate them when he concocted this allocation of resources. This is going to force a Lopez trade at the deadline if we stink. Ugh.

When FO signed Correa the annual payroll spend was increasing about 5% per year……..sloppy math takes 2023’s $154M spend up to an expected payroll in 2025 of around $170M. Ownership pulled FO back in ‘24 & then “no increase” and we’re for sale in winter of ‘24/‘25. Tough to have a cohesive plan with this type of chain on spending right after signing Lopez & Correa……..Baseball Reference has the Team’s “committed $$” at $134M for ‘25. I assume this is accurate? Even if the spend is $144M …….,that’s $26M less than the expectation when those two guys were signed……..if Ownership committed to 2023 salary level of $154M they’d have another bat from FA on the roster (theoretically, effective bat) and this discussion would be moot.

Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Wallner are all pretty affordable going forward next year $3.2M ……..Larnach - Bader - Castro equates to $15M. With these guys in place along with some increases in Rotation costs and PEN costs, they still have plenty of room for Pablo’s contract.

New ownership is necessary!!

’21 - $125M…..’22 - $135M …….’23 - $154M …… ‘24 - $130M ……’25 - maybe $134M ……this progression and regression doesn’t help FO scheme.

[In My La Z boy]

12 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

When FO signed Correa the annual payroll spend was increasing about 5% per year……..sloppy math takes 2023’s $154M spend up to an expected payroll in 2025 of around $170M. Ownership pulled FO back in ‘24 & then “no increase” and we’re for sale in winter of ‘24/‘25. Tough to have a cohesive plan with this type of chain on spending right after signing Lopez & Correa……..Baseball Reference has the Team’s “committed $$” at $134M for ‘25. I assume this is accurate? Even if the spend is $144M …….,that’s $26M less than the expectation when those two guys were signed……..if Ownership committed to 2023 salary level of $154M they’d have another bat from FA on the roster (theoretically, effective bat) and this discussion would be moot.

Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Wallner are all pretty affordable going forward next year $3.2M ……..Larnach - Bader - Castro equates to $15M. With these guys in place along with some increases in Rotation costs and PEN costs, they still have plenty of room for Pablo’s contract.

New ownership is necessary!!

’21 - $125M…..’22 - $135M …….’23 - $154M …… ‘24 - $130M ……’25 - maybe $134M ……this progression and regression doesn’t help FO scheme.

Agreed! Obviously Falvey Had Pohlad's backing to sign a $37M player. Guessing Falvey at one time thought he'd have a bigger budget to work with 👍

[In My La Z boy]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You may be correct that the Twins cannot afford Correa. I won't agree or disagree with that point. Fangraphs has the roster payroll at $147 million. Others sites have it higher, to $150+ M. Correa ($37.33M) plus Buxton ($15.17) = $52.5M, which is short of 36% of the total payroll. 

More importantly, this leaves about the same amount of money left (after CC & BB are paid) as Cleveland spends on their entire payroll. The composition of the roster is what determines the success of a team. Money becomes a factor once clubs are willing to spend well above the money spent by the Twins, Cardinals, and others in the $150M range. Aaron Gleeman has been consumed with holding the Pohlads accountable for their spending, but he has yet to examine the role of how the team has been built. The Pohlads bought the Twins to make money and it is surprising when people are startled by their business decisions considering that Carl is dead and his sons and grandchildren have other concerns. Pretty much everyone I know believes the Twins have struggled, to be kind, with public relations and marketing. The money spent in total though has been greater during the Falvey era than any of the other AL Central teams and our friends in Milwaukee as well. 

The focus should be on the folks who put together the team and make the roster and playing decisions. The general philosophy of what constitutes an exciting and competitive team would be a worthy examination. It would also most likely have some correlation to attendance. Personally I have no idea what the goals are for this front office, but I can see that the team struggles in some areas, such as defense and team speed, which could affect both success and how the public views the team (attendance). When I watch Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay I see a different type of baseball. Still, I watch the Twins and hope they win the World Series. Crazy, huh?

We are of the same mind here 👍 

[Jasper]

The drafting of potential power hitters with no speed and defensive ability has finally caught up to the Team.

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

When FO signed Correa the annual payroll spend was increasing about 5% per year……..sloppy math takes 2023’s $154M spend up to an expected payroll in 2025 of around $170M. Ownership pulled FO back in ‘24 & then “no increase” and we’re for sale in winter of ‘24/‘25. Tough to have a cohesive plan with this type of chain on spending right after signing Lopez & Correa……..Baseball Reference has the Team’s “committed $$” at $134M for ‘25. I assume this is accurate? Even if the spend is $144M …….,that’s $26M less than the expectation when those two guys were signed……..if Ownership committed to 2023 salary level of $154M they’d have another bat from FA on the roster (theoretically, effective bat) and this discussion would be moot.

Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Wallner are all pretty affordable going forward next year $3.2M ……..Larnach - Bader - Castro equates to $15M. With these guys in place along with some increases in Rotation costs and PEN costs, they still have plenty of room for Pablo’s contract.

New ownership is necessary!!

’21 - $125M…..’22 - $135M …….’23 - $154M …… ‘24 - $130M ……’25 - maybe $134M ……this progression and regression doesn’t help FO scheme.

Guess I already more or less said same thing .... there are issues within the Twins organization.

The payroll figures are pretty much estimates. You use B-R at $134, Fangraphs is at $147, BaseballProspectus is at $142, and I also saw a $149 and $151. Reality suggests numbers in the $110-160M range. Others may see things differently and I won't complain if the payroll is above $200M.

We remember that the Pohlads were actually visible and involved in both the Buxton and Correa signings. Ok. Mostly though, ownership is not involved in players acquisitions and roster builds. It seems difficult to understand that the front office doesn't have any idea about budgets, trends, and swings. There are always circumstances beyond our knowledge, such as media, BAM money, etc. Using BaseballProspectus the swing from 2021-now was up $10, up $19, down $25, up $15. There were probably reasons and/or justifications each time and it would be unusual if this was sprung on the front office. I have no idea but management in corporations usually doesn't operate day to day and have no idea of larger picture, but I don't know or care.

The Twins have had the largest financial resources in their division in the Falvey era. Whether the swings in payroll created problems could be noteworthy. When I look over the team it seems to have the firm stamp of this front office though. My main point is that the Twins have not been very active in the trade market, which relates to the original idea that the Twins follow Tampa Bay and Cleveland in building their team. There have been opportunities. Finally, I'm not sure what free agents the Twins could or would have signed even with a larger budget. Rhys Hoskins and Jordan Montgomery were the big names two off-seasons ago. Looking at next year, there are two players worth signing - Alonso and Tucker. I wouldn't bet a penny that either has an interest in the Twins and the money would almost certainly be prohibitive for this market even at a larger payroll. Tommy Pham? Possible, like Bader. Who else?

In sum, yes, a fresh start seems favorable and I would appreciate a dynamic change. However, this seems totally out of my realm and the Twins will still be a mid market team no matter what happens and the payrolls are likely to remain within the range of other mid-market teams. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

Agreed! Obviously Falvey Had Pohlad's backing to sign a $37M player. Guessing Falvey at one time thought he'd have a bigger budget to work with 👍

Agreed

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Jasper said:

The drafting of potential power hitters with no speed and defensive ability has finally caught up to the Team.

? Lewis, Lee, and Jenkins say hi . It's really Rooker and Larnach in round one, and a bunch of SS and OF.... So I'm not sure the facts agree with you. 

That said, the picks may have been SS, but they weren't good picks often enough ..