polanconeverblinks’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint:

[polanconeverblinks]

Trade Paddack, Vazquez, Keaschall And Morris for Luis Arraez 

Sign Amed Rosario 1yr 3.5 

Sign Scott Alexander 1yr 2.5

Trade Willi Castro For Fairbanks ,Keegan (13th) and Pitre (28th)

Sign Elias Diaz 1yr 3

Sign Sasaki 2yr 12.5 

Leaves 2.25 For Depth/Arb Adjustments Or Retaining Salaries Of Traded Players

Only Flaw Is The Hole Willi Castro Leaves - A Prospect Would Have To Fill.

 

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.80M)
• 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Edouard Julien ($0.80M)
• 4th OF: Austin Martin ($0.80M)
• Utility: Willi Castro ($0M)
• Utility: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($0M)
• NA: Alexander,Rosario,Diaz ($9.00M)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• SP4: Chris Paddack ($0M)
• SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($1.30M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M)
• NA: Fairbanks,Sasaki ($9.25M)

Payroll is 3.19% under budget

[Mike Sixel]

Yuck. Arreaz has zero power, can't play defense and can't run. He's not that good. Yuck. Keaschell alone is a serious over pay. 

You are also trading Vazquez, and he's your catcher

[tony&rodney]

More satire, of a sort. 

In case anyone actually pays attention, Keaschall has more value alone than Arraez (whom I love to watch bat) and San Diego will not take on salary (Paddack-$7.5M & Vazquez-$10M).

Perhaps the Padres listen on a trade of Joe Ryan for Dylan Cease to reduce payroll, but the Twins are counting dollars too. Plus Cease has one year before FA as compared to three for Ryan.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 12/13/2024 at 1:58 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Yuck. Arreaz has zero power, can't play defense and can't run. He's not that good. Yuck. Keaschell alone is a serious over pay. 

You are also trading Vazquez, and he's your catcher

Ya, and Castro is still the utility but now free

[bean5302]

@polanconeverblinks Very first thing I noticed... you traded for Luis Arraez and then DFA'd Arraez and released him because he's not on your roster? I mean, that's some pretty bold hatred of a guy (or a funny error) hahaha

@Mike Sixel you don't need to worry. Arraez didn't even make the roster here.

[bean5302]

Alrighty. Let's do a fair and honest review. It took me a couple minutes but your "NA" = New Addition? The way you setup the roster list isn't my favorite because it makes it harder to assign positions to incoming players or to keep track of them.

For this exercise, we assume Luis Arraez is on the team instead of being unconditionally released and will be at 2B and Brooks Lee moves back to AAA.

Ahmed Rosario, Scott Alexander and Elias Diaz are veterans without options so they need to be on the roster if you're offering them more than MiLB contracts (which you are).

*Elias Diaz slots into backup catcher replacing the outgoing Christian Vazquez.
*Ahmed Rosario will replace the outgoing Willi Castro as a Utility Infielder.
*Scott Alexander is listed under the position player NA category, but he should be in the pitcher group. He pushes Kody Funderburk to AAA.
*Pete Fairbanks has no options so he pushes Louie Varland back to AAA.
*Roki Sasaki replaces the outgoing Chris Paddack in the rotation. I'll assume his signing bonus is our maximum of $7.5MM and is counted against MLB payroll. He cannot initially be signed to a 2yr deal under MLB rules. Roki Sasaki can ONLY be signed to a MiLB contract, period. Afterwards, he can be added to the 40 man and the 26 man. The team will have 6 years of control over him.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.7MM)
• 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.8MM)
• 2B: Luiz Arraez ($14.0MM)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.3MM)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.0MM)
• LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.1MM)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.0MM)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.8MM)
• DH: Edouard Julien ($0.8MM)
• 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.8MM)
• Utility: Ahmed Rosario ($3.5MM)
• Utility: Austin Martin ($0.8MM)
  Position Players = $84.6MM / 25.0 WAR
• Backup C: Elias Diaz ($3.0MM)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.8MM)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.8MM)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.3MM)
• SP4: Roki Sasaki ($0.8MM) + $7.5MM
• SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.8MM)
  Rotation = $39.0MM / 13.0 WAR
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.7M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.8MM)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($2.6MM)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.5MM)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.8MM)
• RP: Justin Topa ($1.3MM)
• RP: Pete Fairbanks ($3.7MM)
• RP: Scott Alexander ($2.5MM)
  Bullpen = $16.9MM / 6.5 WAR

Total Payroll $140.5MM

So we're over payroll here. If you exclude the $7.5MM for Sasaki's International Signing Bonus (I don't think ownership would be on board with that), we're still at $133MM.

I think this is about an 89-90 win team.

Now, onto the viability of this deal.
Trade 1 - Paddack, Vazquez ($17.5MM), Keaschall, and Morris for Arraez ($14.0MM). San Diego is looking to dump salary, not take salary on. Padres don't need/want Vazquez, but they're probably okay with Paddack for depth. Keaschall and Morris as toss ins make this a huge overpay for the Twins so San Diego would take this deal.

Trade 2 - Willi Castro ($6.2MM) for RHP Pete Fairbanks ($3.7MM), AA Catching Prospect Dominic Keegan, and A+ 2B prospect Emilien Pitre. Pitre is a nothing toss in, sure. But Dominic Keegan being listed as Org #13 by MLB.com is probably undervaluing him. BTV lists Dominic Keegan at $8.9MM surplus at the trade deadline, but he absolutely raked afterwards, finishing the season with a .320/.400/.546 OPS .946 wRC+ 179 line with a 10.0% BB to 23.6% K rate in AA. The only question about Keegan is his catching skill. Even if he can't catch, he can still DH or cover 1B. No way the Rays trade him for Castro, even straight up IMHO. Fairbanks for Castro, probably, even if the Rays don't like taking on salary.

Signing Roki Sasaki. This is not happing. There's no good reason for Sasaki to sign with the Twins. We can't offer more money than anybody else, we can't offer more endorsement value. Everybody he talks to is on lame duck status so he's not likely to know anybody in the front office or on field coaching management a year from now and the Twins haven't treated other Japanese/KBO signings well at all.