Bye Round or Bust: Another Reason for the Twins to Be Aggressive

[old nurse]

No I guess I should have included they would be buyers of middle infielders, not sellers of pitchers 

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, old nurse said:

A lot of assumptions being made here.. The blogger has the notion that the Twins can make up 4.5 games by making an addition . The Giants are 4.5 back. Maybe they are out looking for a middle infield help to bolster their chance to make up the 4.5 games. 

Snell has missed 10 starts so far this season. Without a dominant post season run I would doubt that teams are going to be looking to give him 30 million unless it is for 2 seasons. He has had too many seasons with injuries. 

The Giants (53-55) were 4.5 games back from a playoff spot and have 6 teams ahead of them for 3 Wildcard spots, and two teams are only 1.5 games back from the Giants. They're 10.5 games out of the division lead.
The Twins were 4.5 games back from winning the division and they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Braves WC1 +5.0 over Giants
Padres WC2 +4.0 over Giants
Mets WC3 +3.5 over Giants
-------------------------------------
Diamondbacks +3.0 over Giants
Cardinals +2.5 over Giants
Pirates +1.5 over Giants
--------------------------------------
Giants 
Cubs 1.5 behind Giants
Reds 1.5 behind Giants

Totally different scenarios. The Giants aren't totally out of it, but they're well outside the playoffs given how many teams they need to pass. You have to assume at least 3 of those 6 teams ahead of the Giants for the Wildcard will start distancing themselves. It's a tough row to hoe.

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The Giants (53-55) were 4.5 games back from a playoff spot and have 6 teams ahead of them for 3 Wildcard spots, and two teams are only 1.5 games back from the Giants. They're 10.5 games out of the division lead.
The Twins were 4.5 games back from winning the division and they would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

Braves WC1 +5.0 over Giants
Padres WC2 +4.0 over Giants
Mets WC3 +3.5 over Giants
-------------------------------------
Diamondbacks +3.0 over Giants
Cardinals +2.5 over Giants
Pirates +1.5 over Giants
--------------------------------------
Giants 
Cubs 1.5 behind Giants
Reds 1.5 behind Giants

Totally different scenarios. The Giants aren't totally out of it, but they're well outside the playoffs given how many teams they need to pass. You have to assume at least 3 of those 6 teams ahead of the Giants for the Wildcard will start distancing themselves. It's a tough row to hoe.

I stated what is possible for the Giants point of view. Unless the Giants are going to emulate their departing crosstown rival a blow the team up it is more likely they will be buyers than sellers. The parameter was set in the article that overcoming 4.5 games back is doable.  I even gave what the hole in the Giants is that they need to fill. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Blake Snell would be great but no one should get their hopes up that ownership would be happy to swallow that pill. Worst case scenario he gets hurt at the end of the year and they're on the hook for $30M next year which would kill the self-imposed payroll.

I'd be very happy given how back into form he looks lately, but it ain't gonna happen. Not with this ownership. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The only reason not to make a couple quality moves is:

C. Ownership is cool with no more than a playoff spot.

All evidence since November is that this is the case. They see no need for this team to get better, if they're already good enough to get into the playoffs. It also aligns with the Pohlad approach to owning the team since Kirby retired. Falvey has been able to wake them to action after bad years, but otherwise, he's restrained by the short leash that Terry Ryan was so fond of.

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, old nurse said:

I stated what is possible for the Giants point of view. Unless the Giants are going to emulate their departing crosstown rival a blow the team up it is more likely they will be buyers than sellers. The parameter was set in the article that overcoming 4.5 games back is doable.  I even gave what the hole in the Giants is that they need to fill. 

I understand what you were looking at, and on the surface, it made sense. Just digging in a little further makes the odds a lot longer because the Giants don't just have to make up 3.5 games to get into the playoffs.

The Giants have to pass the Mets, Diamondbacks (division), Cardinals and Pirates while preventing 2 teams right behind them from gaining ground (Cubs, Reds). 5 of 6 of those teams are not in the Giants' division. The Giants have zero head to head games against the Mets, Cubs or Pirates. They've got 2 series against the Diamondbacks and a single series against the Cardinals and Reds. So much has to go right for them. It's like calculating playoff odds for the Vikings near the end of the season, haha.

[old nurse]

On 7/29/2024 at 11:47 AM, bean5302 said:

I understand what you were looking at, and on the surface, it made sense. Just digging in a little further makes the odds a lot longer because the Giants don't just have to make up 3.5 games to get into the playoffs.

The Giants have to pass the Mets, Diamondbacks (division), Cardinals and Pirates while preventing 2 teams right behind them from gaining ground (Cubs, Reds). 5 of 6 of those teams are not in the Giants' division. The Giants have zero head to head games against the Mets, Cubs or Pirates. They've got 2 series against the Diamondbacks and a single series against the Cardinals and Reds. So much has to go right for them. It's like calculating playoff odds for the Vikings near the end of the season, haha.

Told you he wouldn’t be traded