How Many Active HOF Players are we Watching Currently?

[Vanimal46]

I was inspired from a recent Jomboy podcast Wake and Jake with Jake Storiale and Bailey “Foolish Baseball” Freeman. With the expansion of 30 teams and expanded roster use, we are watching less HOF players than ever. Below is who I think are shoo-in HOF players even if they retire tomorrow. Feel free to add who you think are shoo-ins, who is 90% of the way there, future studs, people in their 30s who have the pace but could decline sharply, etc. 

100% In the HOF

Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman for position players. 

Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Zack Grienke, Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel 

90% There 

Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Jose Altuve, Sal Perez

Players in their 30s with the pace, but could decline sharply:

Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner 

[cmoss84]

Interesting! You could also add Acuna, Soto, Devers, Altuve (gross), Carlos Santana (1000 RBI, Runs, and Walks...with 300 HR), and Lindor, 

[Vanimal46]

16 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Interesting! You could also add Acuna, Soto, Devers, Altuve (gross), Carlos Santana (1000 RBI, Runs, and Walks...with 300 HR), and Lindor, 

Acuna, Soto and Devers are definitely in the young guns group. It will be interesting to see how they age in their late 20s through 30s. I would also add Austin Riley and Vlad Guerrero Jr to the list of young guns that look promising for a HOF career. 

 

[nicksaviking]

Fun discussion. I mostly agree with those tiers, but probably not the relievers as locks. The voters can't make up their minds about that position. Mariano Rivera is the ONLY unanimous HOF amongst all positions, but then you have to twist their arms to put anyone else in? Make up your minds guys and gals.

Altuve is close to a lock but so was Carlos Beltran. We'll have to see how that trashcan blow back turns out in the years to come.

[Vanimal46]

An interesting discussion in the podcast is the need to change our thinking evaluating pitchers for future HOF consideration.

Kershaw, Scherzer, Grienke, and Verlander are the last of the traditional workhorse starters. Jensen, Kimbrel and Chapman are the last 400 save traditional closers. After they retire, it’s basically Gerrit Cole then no one who will rack up the traditional counting stats like 3,000 IP, 200 wins, etc. Relievers are used so differently today it’s hard to envision anyone racking up 40 saves per season consistently. 

[Trov]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I was inspired from a recent Jomboy podcast Wake and Jake with Jake Storiale and Bailey “Foolish Baseball” Freeman. With the expansion of 30 teams and expanded roster use, we are watching less HOF players than ever. Below is who I think are shoo-in HOF players even if they retire tomorrow. Feel free to add who you think are shoo-ins, who is 90% of the way there, future studs, people in their 30s who have the pace but could decline sharply, etc. 

100% In the HOF

Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman for position players. 

Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Zack Grienke, Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel 

90% There 

Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Jose Altuve, Sal Perez

Players in their 30s with the pace, but could decline sharply:

Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner 

I would say Grienke is not 100%, based on how HOF voting for pitchers have gone. He has a high WAR but he also has pitched a lot in his career. He only has 1 cy young, maybe should have had 2, but he is not a lock in my opinion, and with voters on pitching he is a fringe guy I think.  The other starters listed for sure.  The closers you never know how voters feel.  They have the number of saves but people are getting off save stat as important either. 

As for the hitters you list, Trout is for sure, Votto I am not sold on at all.  He is very good, but based on his age and seasons played his counting stats are a little low. He played an offensive position and much of his OPS which is very good, was done by huge walk rate.  I think the fact he played 1b and not considered a strong defender will hurt his chances.  Betts is fully on pace and barring huge drop off of production should be in.  Paul Goldschmidt I am not sold on either.  He is similar to Votto, just not played as long and this year he is not doing well, if he drops off or retires soon, I am not saying HOF for him.  He is not even at 2000 hits yet.  Freeman will need to play a few more years of good ball to be a lock.  He is on his way, but at 34 if he drops off quickly he will be a fringe guy too. Ohtahani is well on his way and barring huge drop off will be a lock.  

Of your 90% guys, Ramirez will need to have a few more very good years to get there.  He is on his way but at 31 could drop off. He is yet to win an MVP or any offense title, and average defender. Arenado is more fringe.  He was a top defender but he is going to have to play several more years at a high level. Machado is similar to Ramirez, been good but never great.  He is still only 31 so if he can stay good into his late 30's he will have a chance. Perez is hard to judge because he is a catcher and you need to take that into account.  Overall his numbers would not warrant HOF at any other position. He only finished top 10 MVP 1 time at 7th other than that just solid numbers as a catcher. Some said Joe, who was first ballot was fringe guy, and Mauers numbers much better than Perez on the whole. Altuve is well on way and not showing signs of slowing down, if he can keep up a few more years he should be a lock. 

Judge will need to keep hitting HR at huge rate to make it. He will get every chance, and being the best Yankee for his time will give him a boost, but if his power drops he will not make it I think. Harper is on the path too, will just need to maintain into later 30's, he is only 31.  I would not put Turner on there yet, not over plenty of others, like Seagar, or Correa, both guys play SS and have better career numbers at younger age. 

The HOF is in interesting time because pitchers numbers are no where near what they used to be, so hard to tell who will make it.  Really, if they are one of best of their time for long period they should go, but how long?  For hitters, I think the 3,000 hits are rare to come by now, or the 500 HR that used to be locks, but I still think they look at how they did over their time and how did they compare to others in their time at their position.  Where they one of the best, or where they just good? Mike Trout, at this point, does not have the counting stats to get in, but for 8 years was considered best in the game at a top defensive position. 

You may be right with most of them because the counting stats are not as important any more. 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

I would say Grienke is not 100%, based on how HOF voting for pitchers have gone. He has a high WAR but he also has pitched a lot in his career. He only has 1 cy young, maybe should have had 2, but he is not a lock in my opinion, and with voters on pitching he is a fringe guy I think.  The other starters listed for sure.  The closers you never know how voters feel.  They have the number of saves but people are getting off save stat as important either. 

As for the hitters you list, Trout is for sure, Votto I am not sold on at all.  He is very good, but based on his age and seasons played his counting stats are a little low. He played an offensive position and much of his OPS which is very good, was done by huge walk rate.  I think the fact he played 1b and not considered a strong defender will hurt his chances.  Betts is fully on pace and barring huge drop off of production should be in.  Paul Goldschmidt I am not sold on either.  He is similar to Votto, just not played as long and this year he is not doing well, if he drops off or retires soon, I am not saying HOF for him.  He is not even at 2000 hits yet.  Freeman will need to play a few more years of good ball to be a lock.  He is on his way, but at 34 if he drops off quickly he will be a fringe guy too. Ohtahani is well on his way and barring huge drop off will be a lock.  

Of your 90% guys, Ramirez will need to have a few more very good years to get there.  He is on his way but at 31 could drop off. He is yet to win an MVP or any offense title, and average defender. Arenado is more fringe.  He was a top defender but he is going to have to play several more years at a high level. Machado is similar to Ramirez, been good but never great.  He is still only 31 so if he can stay good into his late 30's he will have a chance. Perez is hard to judge because he is a catcher and you need to take that into account.  Overall his numbers would not warrant HOF at any other position. He only finished top 10 MVP 1 time at 7th other than that just solid numbers as a catcher. Some said Joe, who was first ballot was fringe guy, and Mauers numbers much better than Perez on the whole. Altuve is well on way and not showing signs of slowing down, if he can keep up a few more years he should be a lock. 

Judge will need to keep hitting HR at huge rate to make it. He will get every chance, and being the best Yankee for his time will give him a boost, but if his power drops he will not make it I think. Harper is on the path too, will just need to maintain into later 30's, he is only 31.  I would not put Turner on there yet, not over plenty of others, like Seagar, or Correa, both guys play SS and have better career numbers at younger age. 

The HOF is in interesting time because pitchers numbers are no where near what they used to be, so hard to tell who will make it.  Really, if they are one of best of their time for long period they should go, but how long?  For hitters, I think the 3,000 hits are rare to come by now, or the 500 HR that used to be locks, but I still think they look at how they did over their time and how did they compare to others in their time at their position.  Where they one of the best, or where they just good? Mike Trout, at this point, does not have the counting stats to get in, but for 8 years was considered best in the game at a top defensive position. 

You may be right with most of them because the counting stats are not as important any more. 

 

 

I think voters already know the issue with using counting stats now. I think Greinke gets in by year three on the ballet at the latest.

I think Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman and Betts are basically locks too. How many guys with .890 OPS, or whatever they'll finish with, aren't in the HOF?

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I think voters already know the issue with using counting stats now. I think Greinke gets in by year three on the ballet at the latest.

I think Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman and Betts are basically locks too. How many guys with .890 OPS, or whatever they'll finish with, aren't in the HOF?

HOF voters are going to have to change their mindset on pitching counting stats. Otherwise we won’t see a pitcher elected into the HOF again. They did a good job adjusting for Mauer in the 5 years after his retirement. Buster Posey will be next in the catcher discussion and he should get in within 3 years of eligibility. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I really think it's a lot tougher to predict than it used to be.  Back in the day, if you met certain thresholds -- 500 home runs, 2500 - 3500 hits, 250-300 wins, some CYA or MVP's or batting titles -- you were pretty likely to make it in.  But the importance of counting stats has definitely changed and trying to compare across eras by backing into rate stats and things like WAR numbers, while useful, isn't completely the answer either.  I think that your list is mostly a good one, but I think it is a less predictable platform than it used to be. 

[DJL44]

On 7/11/2024 at 9:54 AM, Vanimal46 said:

I was inspired from a recent Jomboy podcast Wake and Jake with Jake Storiale and Bailey “Foolish Baseball” Freeman. With the expansion of 30 teams and expanded roster use, we are watching less HOF players than ever. Below is who I think are shoo-in HOF players even if they retire tomorrow. Feel free to add who you think are shoo-ins, who is 90% of the way there, future studs, people in their 30s who have the pace but could decline sharply, etc. 

100% In the HOF

Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Mookie Betts, Paul Goldschmidt, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman for position players. 

Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Zack Grienke, Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel 

90% There 

Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Jose Altuve, Sal Perez

Players in their 30s with the pace, but could decline sharply:

Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner 

Chris Sale should be considered 90% there. I wouldn't vote for Jansen or Kimbrel. Carlos Correa is on pace but could decline.

[DJL44]

21 hours ago, Trov said:

I would say Grienke is not 100%, based on how HOF voting for pitchers have gone. He has a high WAR but he also has pitched a lot in his career. He only has 1 cy young, maybe should have had 2, but he is not a lock in my opinion, and with voters on pitching he is a fringe guy I think.  The other starters listed for sure. 

Greinke should be a 100% lock. What other pitcher is going to be on the ballot and have a better resume? He will be the best pitcher on the ballot by a wide margin until he's elected or until Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer are added to the ballot. I don't see how voters would turn him down for 10 years.

I would put Bryce Harper in the "90% there" category. Yelich could make it if he plays to age 40.

I agree that voters are going to need to adjust expectations for pitchers. Nola, Wheeler and deGrom are in the next tier down but won't have any traditional milestones.

[Trov]

16 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I think voters already know the issue with using counting stats now. I think Greinke gets in by year three on the ballet at the latest.

I think Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman and Betts are basically locks too. How many guys with .890 OPS, or whatever they'll finish with, aren't in the HOF?

If the voters change up their thoughts, which they do seem to be, based on guys like Helton getting in, but pitching they have lagged behind.  Greinke, has the longevity and had a good run for 10 seasons, which should get him HOF, but you never know how voters will go.  I was shocked when Santana was bounced first ballot, when in his 12 seasons, but really like 9 seasons, he was one of best if not the best pitcher in the game during those 9 seasons.  

I do feel the voters now are looking at the larger hall, let the best of their era get in, even if they may not have put up the same numbers as others in the hall.  In the past, the voters did not care if they were best of their era, but cared how they compared to others. I think the new voters understand the game has evolved over time and the counting stats are not the same as they used to be.  However, I still feel like the voters look more than just a great 7 to 9 year run.  

[DJL44]

23 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Carlos Santana (1000 RBI, Runs, and Walks...with 300 HR)

Carlos Santana is not going to get 5% of the vote to stay on the ballot.

[DJL44]

Andrew McCutchen is 90% there but it's looking doubtful he gets the remaining 10%.

[Trov]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Greinke should be a 100% lock. What other pitcher is going to be on the ballot and have a better resume? He will be the best pitcher on the ballot by a wide margin until he's elected or until Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer are added to the ballot. I don't see how voters would turn him down for 10 years.

I would put Bryce Harper in the "90% there" category. Yelich could make it if he plays to age 40.

I agree that voters are going to need to adjust expectations for pitchers. Nola, Wheeler and deGrom are in the next tier down but won't have any traditional milestones.

Compare Kurt Schilling and Zach Greinke.  Schilling did not make hall, and maybe because of his political views, but his numbers are better than Greinke, and he had more big moments people remember.  The numbers are very close but Schilling never made it.  I do not think voters care if he is the best on the ballot at pitching for years.  There is no requirement anyone needs to go in any year, let alone a pitcher.  The last pitchers voted in were 2019, when 3 went in same year.  Before that, 2018 1 went in.  Then in 2015 3 went in as well. Point is they do not have to put in a pitcher, and you never know what the voters will look at to decide. 

[DJL44]

23 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Acuna, Soto and Devers are definitely in the young guns group. It will be interesting to see how they age in their late 20s through 30s. I would also add Austin Riley and Vlad Guerrero Jr to the list of young guns that look promising for a HOF career. 

+Matt Olson

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Trov said:

Compare Kurt Schilling and Zach Greinke.  Schilling did not make hall, and maybe because of his political views, but his numbers are better than Greinke, and he had more big moments people remember.  The numbers are very close but Schilling never made it.  I do not think voters care if he is the best on the ballot at pitching for years.  There is no requirement anyone needs to go in any year, let alone a pitcher.  The last pitchers voted in were 2019, when 3 went in same year.  Before that, 2018 1 went in.  Then in 2015 3 went in as well. Point is they do not have to put in a pitcher, and you never know what the voters will look at to decide. 

Curt Schilling is out 100% due to his lack of social skills. Threatening to kill journalists is not a good way to get votes from them.

Voters don't have to elect any pitchers (or catchers) but it would be a really, really boring Baseball Hall of Fame without them. I suppose they could rename it the "Hall of Hitters".

[Vanimal46]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Chris Sale should be considered 90% there. I wouldn't vote for Jansen or Kimbrel. Carlos Correa is on pace but could decline.

Good call on Chris Sale. Yes I think he’s 90% there. You know what’s crazy? I just looked at his b-ref page and he hasn’t won a Cy Young Award even with 10 very good full seasons on his resume. 

[Vanimal46]

34 minutes ago, Trov said:

I was shocked when Santana was bounced first ballot, when in his 12 seasons, but really like 9 seasons, he was one of best if not the best pitcher in the game during those 9 seasons.

Johan got screwed by the BBWA voters at the time. Likely that wrong will be corrected down the road by the veterans committee. 

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I really think it's a lot tougher to predict than it used to be.  Back in the day, if you met certain thresholds -- 500 home runs, 2500 - 3500 hits, 250-300 wins, some CYA or MVP's or batting titles -- you were pretty likely to make it in.  But the importance of counting stats has definitely changed and trying to compare across eras by backing into rate stats and things like WAR numbers, while useful, isn't completely the answer either.  I think that your list is mostly a good one, but I think it is a less predictable platform than it used to be. 

I don't think WAR is terribly reliable, but lately it has been pretty reliable in who the voters will choose. So for these predictions, I think it's a pretty safe benchmark.

[cmoss84]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Carlos Santana is not going to get 5% of the vote to stay on the ballot.

A lot lesser players stay on a lot longer. Have you seen his career stats? He's also caught 330 games.