2024 Minnesota Twins Predictions

[Seth Stohs]

Happy Opening Day! Several Twins Daily writers and a community of readers from this site or Twitter made their predictions for the 2024 Minnesota Twins season. How will this version of the Twins do in the AL Central, and which players will help along the 162-game journey? At the end, be sure to add in your predictions in the comments.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Over the past week or so, we surveyed the Twins Daily writers for their predictions about the 2024 season. A similar survey was posted in the forums and promoted on Twitter. Here are the results. How many wins will the Twins have, and where will they place in the AL Central?

Seventeen Twins Daily writers responded to our survey (though not necessarily to each question), while 111 Twins Daily readers and/or Twitter followers responded. The majority of the questions were related to the Twins' 2024 season. How many wins will the Twins have this season? Will they have any Silver Slugger or Gold Glove Award winners? Who will be their top hitters and pitchers?

In this article, I will make my prediction and compare it to the Twins Daily writers, which will then be compared to the Twins Daily Community. It’ll be interesting to see how they compare. Your part in this is going to the comments and giving your answers so that - at least in theory - we can take a look at our predictions in October and see how we did. 

Let’s get started with some predictions for the Twins and the AL Central. 

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Question 1: How many Wins will the Twins have in 2024?
I decided to predict 85 wins for the 2024 Twins. Fifteen Twins Daily writers shared their predictions. The lowest came in at 83 wins. The highest prediction was 93 wins. On average, the Twins Daily writers predicted 88.6 Wins in 2024. 

On the public survey, I broke up the wins predictions into smaller categories. Just shy of 40% of the 111 Twins Daily readers and followers said the Twins will win between 86 and 89 games in 2024. 24% said ‘90 or more’ wins. 19.8% said 82-85 wins. So, combined, 83.8% of respondents think the Twins will finish with a record above .500. 

A year ago, the Twins Daily prediction was 87 wins for the 2023 Twins. The 2023 Twins won the division with a record of… 87-75.  

Having fun with math, I calculated that the overall average win prediction at Twins Daily is again 87 wins. 

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Question 2: Where will the Twins finish in the American League Central in 2024?
All 16 Twins Daily writers that responded to the survey believe that the Twins will win their second straight division crown in 2024. A robust 75.2% of the fan respondents agree that the Twins will win the division again. Sixteen of the 111 respondents (14.7%) predicted the Twins to finish in second, while 11 believe the Twins will finish in third place. 

There might be a bit of homerism in this one, at least in the percentages. That said, the Twins generally are believed to be the favorite to win the division. 

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Question 3: Which team will win the AL Central in 2024?
This is obviously a slightly different question than the previous question. Of course, with all 16 Twins Daily writers predicting the Twins to finish in first place atop the AL Central. 

How about the Twins Daily community? Again, 84 of the 111 respondents (75.7%) said the Twins will win the division. Thirteen respondents predicted that Cleveland will win the division, and 12 others predicted that the Tigers will win the division. The other two think that the Royals did enough to make up the 31 games they were behind the Twins in 2023. The Royals are much-improved, and they locked up one of baseball’s best players in the offseason, but that’s a big task. The Tigers have Skubal. They added Flaherty and Maeda. Casey Mize is coming back. They should be better. The most important thing: Zero people predicted the White Sox to win the AL Central, which is very important! 

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Player Awards and Recognition

Question 4: Will the Twins have any Silver Slugger Award winners for the 2024 season? If so, who?
Nine of the 15 Twins Daily writers (60%) wrote that the Twins would not have a Silver Slugger winner. Forty-six of the 104 fan respondents (44.2%) agree that the Twins hitters will be shut out. 

Royce Lewis led the way among the writers, with three believing he’ll be the AL’s top-hitting third baseman. Edouard Julien got two votes. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Ryan Jeffers each received one vote.  

Lewis led the way with 34 (of 104) saying he will beat out the likes of Rafael Devers, Jose Ramirez, and Alex Bregman for the AL Silver Slugger at third base. Ryan Jeffers had 18 people say that he could take the Silver Slugger for catcher away from Adley Rutschman or the veteran Salvador Perez. Edouard Julien is the third Twins player in double-digits with 16 people saying that he’ll top Marcus Semien. 

I mention those other names because it illustrates just how difficult winning a Silver Slugger can be. Others to receive votes include Byron Buxton (8), Carlos Correa (4), Matt Wallner (2), Max Kepler (1), and Alex Kirilloff (1). 

After that, several players received one or two votes. Jose Miranda came in third in voting by both groups. He's undoubtedly been crushing the ball this spring. 

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Question 5: Will the Twins have Gold Glove Award winners for the 2024 season? If so, who?
A minority (46.1%) of our fan respondents don't think the Twins will have any Gold Glove winners in 2024. Similarly, six of the 15 Twins Daily writers (40.0%) think the Twins will be shut out of the Gold Glove hardware.

Twins fans and writers want to believe, and we are all incredibly excited to see a healthy Byron Buxton in center field. Five Twins Daily writers (33%) and 34 community respondents (32.7%) believe he will meet the innings requirements and play some great center field! 

Likewise, we all believe that Carlos Correa is past his plantar fasciitis and can regain some of the range and footwork that he simply was unable to do a year ago. 20% of Twins Daily writers and 24 community respondents (23.1%) believe he will win another Gold Glove. 

Max Kepler received eight votes between the two groups. Royce Lewis received three votes. Carlos Santana received two votes, and Bailey Ober, Pablo Lopez and Ryan Jeffers each got one vote. 

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Question 6: Who will be the Twins' top rookie in 2024?
He had a terrific showing in his second big-league spring training after reaching Triple-A in 2023. Brooks Lee was also this year’s Sire of Fort Myers! He also is being predicted on the Twins preseason Top Rookie. Seven of 15 writers thought that he would take this award. 47 of 110 community respondents (42.7%) foresee Lee as the 2024 top rookie. 

Among writers, Austin Martin received four votes. He finished second among community respondents with 20 votes (18.2%). He received one more vote than David Festa (17.3%). Simeon Woods Richardson showed well this spring, regaining confidence among many Twins fans. He received nine votes from the community. 

Others who received votes include Matt Canterino, Brent Headrick, Yunior Severino, and Kody Funderburk. 

2024 Top Twins Rookie (Preseason): Brooks Lee

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Question 7: Who will be the Most Improved Twins player in 2024?
This can be a very interesting category. "Most Improved" can mean something different to different people. Could it be a young player who just got a cup of coffee getting more opportunities? Could it be a player returning from injury or after a disappointing season? 

As I reviewed the Twins Daily writer ballots, the first eight I looked at were different, and by the end, 10 players' names were mentioned. Byron Buxton led the way with four votes, followed by Louie Varland and Christian Vazquez with two votes. 

On the other respondent ballots, Alex Kirilloff led the way with 25 votes. Byron Buxton was next in line with 20 votes. A close third was Carlos Correa with 17 votes. Christian Vazquez was the other player who hit double digits. He had 11 votes. Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan each had a half-dozen votes. In all, 18 different players received votes. 

I should also point out that two people said that no one would improve. In fact, one said, “Everybody regresses, window missed.”  

2024 Most Improved Twins Player (Preseason): Alex Kirilloff. 

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Question 8: Who will be the Twins' top starting pitcher in 2024?
14 of 16 Twins Daily writers (87.5%) selected the obvious choice, Pablo Lopez. He was also the choice a year ago, and he had a fantastic season. He made the All Star team and proved to be very Ace-like in the Twins postseason run. 

The other two votes - including mine - went to Bailey Ober. 

An even higher percentage of the community voted for Lopez. He received 104 of the 110 votes (93.7%). Bailey Ober got three votes. Joe Ryan got two. Louie Varland and Chris Paddack each received one vote. 

2024 Twins Top Starting Pitcher (Preseason): Pablo Lopez 

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Question 9: Who will be the Twins' top relief pitcher in 2024?
Without an injury, the choice is pretty obvious. Most would vote for Jhoan Duran even though there are a couple more relievers that should be relied upon as well. However, Duran begins the season on the IL with an oblique injury. No, it’s not an arm injury, which is great, but after seeing the struggles Caleb Thielbar had in his return from an oblique injury, it’s hard to predict how long Duran will be out. 

Was that concern enough to alter the voting? Well, it certainly did with the Twins Daily writers. 10 of 16 writers (62.5%) said Griffin Jax will be the top reliever. Duran still received 31.3% (5 votes). Brock Stewart also received one vote. 

Would the Twins Daily community respondents react similarly? To some degree, yes. Jhoan Duran led the way with 47 votes (42.3%), but Jax received 44 votes (39.6%). After that, Stewart led the way with eight votes. Next was Kody Funderburk with four and Jorge Alcala with three. 

What does it mean? Nothing. It’s just a fun preseason prediction. But on another level, it tells us that most of the Twins community has a strong confidence in Griffin Jax being able to get the job done in whatever role he is presented. It also tells me that they really should be careful and patient with Duran because he is so good, so talented, and so important. Of course, the Twins brass knows that as well and having two (or more!) potentially dominant options late in the season will be really important. 

2024 Twins Top Relief Pitcher (Preseason): Griffin Jax 

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Question 10: Who will be the Twins' top hitter in 2024?
16 Twins Daily writers voted for this category. They provided just three names. Atop the list is Royce Lewis who received nine votes (56.3%). Edouard Julien received four votes, and Byron Buxton got three votes. 

The community provided a fairly similar result. Royce Lewis received 68 of the 111 votes (61.3%). Julien received 15 votes (13.5%), and Carlos Correa got 14 votes (12.6%). Buxton received just seven votes from the 111 respondents, the same number as the others who received at least one vote. 

2024 Twins Top Hitter (Preseason): Royce Lewis. 

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As the season begins today, please leave your predictions for these awards in the COMMENTS below, and discuss your thoughts on the players.

Your Turn
In the COMMENTS below, please let us know how you would vote for how the Twins will do in 2024, and which players will help lead the way.

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[UK Twin]

1. 89 wins. 

2. 1st.

3. Twins

4. Yes - Ryan Jeffers

5. Yes - Santana and Correa

6. Brooks Lee

7. Correa

8. Pablo Lopez

9. Duran the obvious choice but I'm going to go with Topa.

10. Lewis

 

[chpettit19]

1. 85
2. 1st
3. Twins
4. No
5. No
6. Lee
7. Kirilloff
8. Lopez
9. Duran will be the best, Jax will provide the most value because of the Duran injury
10. Kirilloff

[sweetmusicviola16]

84 wins for the Twins and will win the division. Detroit 1 GB.