Lineup Carries the Weight of the World For Twins

[rv78]

14 hours ago, mnfireman said:

So, everybody comes on here complaining that the pitching pipeline of the pitching guru's (Falvey & Levine) isn't delivering, but, now that it is supposed to be relied on (and is delivering), everybody comes on here, complaining that the pitching guru's (Falvey & Levine) didn't bring in a veteran from outside the pitching pipeline to help the team. WOW!! Can't have it both ways. Trust the process. The team didn't cheap out, the young talent on the team and on the way isn't going to be cheap...

who is delivering?  1 year of Ober and a new kid who won a spot in the rotation because another poor trade didn't work. Yeah, 1 year of a starting pitcher in 6 years of work. Let's give 'em a medal.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Why wasn't a similar value contract going to happen? It's $10MM this year, which is less than what Polanco was making. The Twins have only $80MM guaranteed on the books in 2025.

Buxton - $15M…..Lopez - $21M…..Correa - $35M …….Vazquez - $10M are the guaranteed $$ I guess? Paddack at what $$, maybe $6M ???…………$87M

Ober - Ryan - Varland all at about $800K, or $2.4M.

With arbitration guys included (less Thielbar) the Pen will cost about (8 guys) $12M

Wallner - Julien - Lewis - Lee - Martin - Larnach - Miranda all on minimums, ($800K) so $5.6M total.

Kirilloff - Jeffers - Castro all arbitration guys totaling $9M.

That’s 25 guys totaling $117M

Rotation check - Pen check - Catchers check - Platoon at IB check ……5 infield guys plus Martin & Castro flexing both OF & IF - 3 OF check.

Room for, in need of, an OF to fill out the 26-man…….I’d stick with internal options & youth. Another $800K. That’s a conservative total if $118M - seem reasonable?

Gotta sign a pitcher…..seems so!!!

Depending upon success in ‘24, I guess the plan for excess $$$ above $118M could be spent on extending some of the guys they have in house & continue to build internally?

Thielbar, Farmer, Santana, Kepler total roughly $25M & am assuming they are all gone - Lopez gets a $13M raise…….,back to an approximate $118M total again for ‘25.

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Buxton - $15M…..Lopez - $21M…..Correa - $35M …….Vazquez - $10M are the guaranteed $$ I guess? Paddack at what $$, maybe $6M ???…………$87M

Ober - Ryan - Varland all at about $800K, or $2.4M.

With arbitration guys included (less Thielbar) the Pen will cost about (8 guys) $12M

Wallner - Julien - Lewis - Lee - Martin - Larnach - Miranda all on minimums, ($800K) so $5.6M total.

Kirilloff - Jeffers - Castro all arbitration guys totaling $9M.

That’s 25 guys totaling $117M

Rotation check - Pen check - Catchers check - Platoon at IB check ……5 infield guys plus Martin & Castro flexing both OF & IF - 3 OF check.

Room for, in need of, an OF to fill out the 26-man…….I’d stick with internal options & youth. Another $800K. That’s a conservative total if $118M - seem reasonable?

Gotta sign a pitcher…..seems so!!!

Depending upon success in ‘24, I guess the plan for excess $$$ above $118M could be spent on extending some of the guys they have in house & continue to build internally?

Thielbar, Farmer, Santana, Kepler total roughly $25M & am assuming they are all gone - Lopez gets a $13M raise…….,back to an approximate $118M total again for ‘25.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2025/

Rather than guessing or putting an insane amount of memory to work, you can use Spotrac. I've found myself relying on the site more and more for data because it's so handy. From predicting free agent MV's to tracking contracts and seeing some of the stuff not always considered (like IL payroll).

2025 = $117MM including all options of which I expect $20MM will be declined.
26 Man Active Roster
C - $5MM
1B - $2MM
2B - Pre-Arb
SS - Included
3B - $6MM
LF - Pre-Arb
CF - Included
RF - Pre-Arb
DH - Pre-Arb
UI - Pre-Arb
UO - Pre-Arb
BC - Included
PH - Pre-Arb
SP1 - Included
SP2 - Included
SP3 - Arb1 $4MM
SP4 - Arb1 $3MM
SP5 - Pre-Arb
RP1 - Arb1 $3MM
RP2 - Arb1 $3MM
RP3 - Arb1 $3MM
RP4 - Included
RP5 - Pre-Arb
RP6 - Pre-Arb
RP7 - Pre-Arb
RP8 - Pre-Arb 

Average $1MM for each pre-arb person in case the Twins retain an arb eligible player at a low salary (like Trevor Larnach or Justin Topa, etc). That's about $138MM, assuming the Twins don't move a significant contract or two to clear some space, and I expect they will move Vazquez if possible. Puts them at $128MM, with room for a $25MM addition as payrolls and revenues continue to expand. Correa's contract starts shrinking quite a bit starting in 2026.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2025/

Rather than guessing or putting an insane amount of memory to work, you can use Spotrac. I've found myself relying on the site more and more for data because it's so handy. From predicting free agent MV's to tracking contracts and seeing some of the stuff not always considered (like IL payroll).

2025 = $117MM including all options of which I expect $20MM will be declined.
26 Man Active Roster
C - $5MM
1B - $2MM
2B - Pre-Arb
SS - Included
3B - $6MM
LF - Pre-Arb
CF - Included
RF - Pre-Arb
DH - Pre-Arb
UI - Pre-Arb
UO - Pre-Arb
BC - Included
PH - Pre-Arb
SP1 - Included
SP2 - Included
SP3 - Arb1 $4MM
SP4 - Arb1 $3MM
SP5 - Pre-Arb
RP1 - Arb1 $3MM
RP2 - Arb1 $3MM
RP3 - Arb1 $3MM
RP4 - Included
RP5 - Pre-Arb
RP6 - Pre-Arb
RP7 - Pre-Arb
RP8 - Pre-Arb 

Average $1MM for each pre-arb person in case the Twins retain an arb eligible player at a low salary (like Trevor Larnach or Justin Topa, etc). That's about $138MM, assuming the Twins don't move a significant contract or two to clear some space, and I expect they will move Vazquez if possible. Puts them at $128MM, with room for a $25MM addition as payrolls and revenues continue to expand. Correa's contract starts shrinking quite a bit starting in 2026.

Took me a couple times back & forth but I think I follow………assuming Margot - Farmer - Thielbar are not extended….Santana not re-signed.

Don’t understand your $6M at 3B in ‘25?

Don’t see any realistic “out” with Vazquez.

In any case, Team is around $128M this year & appears to be same next year as well ……..2023 was $154M. $26M/year to a guy like Montgomery for four years looks pretty affordable with the assumed upside he would bring to Team’s chances……he can opt out in year 3&4. Let’s do it tomorrow!

$154 in ‘23 - $154 in ‘24 - $154 in ‘25 sure seems doable.

 

[Major League Ready]

On 3/21/2024 at 2:12 PM, bean5302 said:

Sonny Gray had hamstring tightness. It's not really even a strain. He's pitching tomorrow and there's optimism he'll pitch in the Cardinals opening series. Worst case scenario looks to be him missing a single start. 

Considering Gray's contract with the Cardinals pays him only $10MM this year, the fact the Twins didn't bring him back is reprehensible.

You forget to mention it's $35M in 2026 when our young core will be getting expensive, and Sonny Gray will be very unlikely to be performing at a high level at age 36.  I would not call it reprehensible.  I would call it competence.  Can you give me an example of a team with under $300M in revenue that has ever made a deep playoff run with 4 players earning $100M.  Take a look.  No such team exists.   

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You forget to mention it's $35M in 2026 when our young core will be getting expensive, and Sonny Gray will be very unlikely to be performing at a high level at age 36.  I would not call it reprehensible.  I would call it competence.  Can you give me an example of a team with under $300M in revenue that has ever made a deep playoff run with 4 players earning $100M.  Take a look.  No such team exists.   

Does Gray HAVE to have a $10MM contract this year? Or could the Twins have done $16MM/$25MM/$30MM or another variant not quite so backloaded? I didn't intend on analyzing the contracts of all 30 MLB teams and their playoff fate based on percentage of salary over say the past decade to get a good sample size.

16 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Don’t understand your $6M at 3B in ‘25?

 

Royce Lewis Super 2 Arb 1. He wins the MVP this year.... obviously. LOL Honestly, it's part love of Lewis and part just being accepting of a little potential cushion.